Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 250530

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
130 AM EDT Sun Mar 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 349 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2018

It`s been another quiet/dry day across the fcst area. Mid-level
ridge over northern Ontario to Hudson Bay is supporting strong sfc
high pres centered over James Bay, resulting in a flow of low-level
dry air from the e. Lake stratocu did stream across the Keweenaw
this morning, but those clouds cleared out around noon. Otherwise,
high clouds slowly advancing e across western Upper MI today have
been thinning out as they spread eastward. Temps currently range
from 25-30F near Lake Superior to the mid/upper 30s interior w. Dry
flow from the high pres has resulted in dwpts as low as -10F over
the interior e.

Quiet/dry weather will continue tonight/Sun as mid-level ridge moves
across the Upper Lakes. Although the associated sfc high pres shifts
eastward, it will ridge back into the Upper Lakes. As a result, dry
air will continue to dominate with nothing more than some high
clouds at times. The high clouds shouldn`t inhibit fairly strong
radiational cooling under the dry air mass and light/calm winds
during the night. As in previous days, the lower side of guidance
for min temps is the way to go. Expect mins ranging generally from
the single digits in the interior to the teens at most locations
along the Great Lakes. Max temps on Sun will be higher than today.
Under se winds, western Upper MI, except the Keweenaw, should see
max temps well into the 40s. Temps will trend down to the low/mid
30s over the Keweenaw and the eastern fcst area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2018

Overall, next week we will get back into an active pattern with
multiple chances for precipitation. Mild temperatures are expected
through the first half of the work week, but a cool down is on the
way for the end of the work week and next weekend.

Monday through Tuesday: As upper-level ridging slowly begins to
break day in response to an approaching longwave trough from the
west, precipitation will spread west to east across Upper Michigan
Monday night into Tuesday. Given the amount of dry low-level air in
place, initially expect precipitation to start off as snow as
temperatures should easily wet-bulb down below freezing, but a warm
nose of 2-4C overspreading the region with the arrival of deeper
moisture by Tuesday morning, expect snow to transition over to rain
for much of the area. As previously noted, the models have been
consistently trending slightly colder with each model run, so this
could keep precipitation in the form a snow a bit longer Tuesday
morning over the Keweenaw Peninsula and perhaps the north central
compared to the rest of Upper Michigan. Little in the way of
accumulating snow is expected, especially given the gradual
transition over to rain.

There is quite the spread among guidance when it comes to QPF, which
make sense given the uncertainty in how far north the deeper
moisture will get with this system, and the magnitude of the dry air
that will remain anchored across the area ahead of the system.
However, given the track of the moisture transport out ahead of the
main upper-level wave, thinking locations across the south central
and east will have the best chance at seeing rainfall around and/or
possibly exceed half of an inch. Elsewhere, less than half an inch
of rain is expected at this time. Towards the end of the afternoon
on Tuesday, we should see precipitation lighten and possible mix
with flurries by Tuesday night. While we should see some rises on
rivers and their tributaries, given the rainfall and associated
snowmelt, no major hydro impacts are anticipated at this time.

Wednesday through early next weekend: As the pattern changes across
the region later next week into next weekend, we`re looking at
periodic chances for rain and snow showers. We will also see a cool
down as a shot of arctic air spills south across the Great Lakes

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 129 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2018

A dry air mass over the area will ensure VFR conditions at
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period. Easterly winds at KCMX will be
gusty this aftn, as high as 25kt at times.


.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 349 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2018

Strong high pres over James Bay will shift e to Quebec thru Sun. As
this occurs, easterly winds of 15-25kt across Lake Superior late
this aftn, except up to 30kt over the far western part of the lake,
will veer slightly more se tonight/Sun with the stronger winds
shifting to the eastern part of the lake. Ahead of an approaching
low pres trof, winds may reach up to 30kt at times over eastern Lake
Superior Sun night through Tue morning. Winds will be lighter over
the western part of the lake. In addition to rain and snow Mon
night/Tue as the trof passes, there is also the potential for some
freezing rain. Behind the trof, winds should be under 20kt late
Tue/Wed. A cold front passing late Wed night or Thu morning will be
followed by 20-30kt winds, strongest over the e half of the lake.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...


SHORT TERM...Rolfson
LONG TERM...Ritzman
MARINE...Rolfson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.