Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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033 FXUS64 KMRX 211923 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 323 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Thursday)...The departing upper low will result in drying and stabilization aloft that will bring a diminishing trend to snow showers and measurable snow accumulations through the evening, but it may not be the end of precip. Another vort max in the NW flow crosses northern sections late tonight into early Thursday morning. There will be very little moisture at that time but it could keep flurries and broken clouds going for SW VA and the TN mountains into Thursday morning. With accumulating snow expected to end around midnight, the WSW product will not be changed. Temperatures tonight will easily drop below freezing for most areas, so the freeze warning for locations where our freeze program has been activated will continue. With full sun expected tomorrow outside SW VA, highs will be in the 50s for the TN Valley. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)...Dry northwest flow aloft with surface ridging continues on Thursday night. Lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Soundings begin to moisten Friday as moisture streams in from the northwest. Down at the surface however, enough dry air remains in place that Friday looks to be mostly dry so no POPs in place as of now. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Atmosphere continues to moisten Friday night into Saturday as a shortwave moves in from the west. POPs in place Friday night and increase into Saturday as the shortwave rotates down through KY. Lows Friday night will range from the mid 30s north to mid 40s south. There may be a brief period of snow late Friday night into Saturday morning across southwest VA and portions of northeast TN as the precip begins. It should quickly changeover to rain though as temperatures quickly warm to above freezing as strong southwest 850 mb winds move in with the jet. Some minor accumulations are possible, especially across the higher terrain. Highs on Saturday will warm into the lower 60s across the southern valley, upper 50s central valley, and upper 40s northeast areas, as the jet pumps in warm and moist area. The best chances of rain appear to be across our northeastern sections with drier conditions across the southern valley. Rain showers taper off Saturday night into Sunday morning as the system moves east. Lows Saturday night are mild, upper 30s to upper 40s. Ridging begins to develop on Sunday and builds through Tuesday. Some chances of rain here and there but dry for the most part due to the ridging. Highs on Sunday in the lower 50s to low 60s and with warming conditions through Wednesday. Highs in the mid 60s by Wednesday. Wednesday also brings the next best chance of rain as high pressure to our southeast pumps in quite a bit of moisture across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 31 57 36 57 / 0 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 29 52 32 54 / 10 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 28 52 32 54 / 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 49 27 51 / 40 10 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...Winter Storm Warning until midnight EDT tonight for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. Freeze Warning from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ Thursday for Anderson-Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne- Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox- Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-NW Blount-North Sevier- Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union- Washington TN-West Polk. VA...Winter Storm Warning until midnight EDT tonight for Wise. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for Lee- Russell-Scott-Washington. && $$ DGS/SR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.