


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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958 FXUS66 KMTR 131654 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 954 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - Temperatures near to slightly below seasonal averages with a more noticeable cooling trend beginning Tuesday. - Localized elevated fire weather threat continues across the higher elevations. && .UPDATE... Issued at 824 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Coastal drizzle was reported at a few sites this morning with the greatest being at Dillon Beach where 0.04" was reported in the past 12 hours. Other locations where we "tipped the bucket" were in the Bay Area around the City of San Francisco, East Bay at Oakland North RAWs, Ano Nuevo Natural Reserve, Coast Dairies (San Mateo and Santa Cruz County coastlines), and Whale Point along the Big Sur coastline. High confidence for inland areas to clear out with afternoon temperatures reaching to around the same as yesterday. No updates are anticipated this morning as the forecast remains largely on track. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1229 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 (Today and tonight) Satellite imagery shows the stratus layer blooming inland into the Sonoma County valleys, the East Bay, Silicon Valley, the Monterey Bay region, and the Salinas Valley. Profilers from Bodega Bay, Fort Ord, and Point Sur are depicting a marine layer around 1500 ft deep, conducive to extensive inland stratus development through the rest of the night, before the clouds retreat to the immediate coast during the morning. The marine layer should compress somewhat through the day with a weak ridge axis slowly retrograding across the state, but some inland stratus is still expected tonight. Morning lows range in the middle to upper 50s for the lower elevations, to the 60s and lower 70s in the higher elevations. High temperatures reach the 80s into the lower 90s inland, with highs in the upper 90s or near 100 expected at the southern reaches of Monterey and Salinas and places in the far interior Bay Area adjacent to the Central Valley. Elsewhere, the Bayshore should see highs in the 70s and lower 80s, downtown San Francisco should rise to near 66, and the Pacific Coast should see highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Onshore winds will develop in the afternoon and evening with gusts as high as 25 mph through favored gaps and passes and within the Salinas Valley. Localized elevated fire weather threat persists across areas above and inland of the marine layer`s influence. The combination of dry daytime humidities of around 20-35%, poor overnight recoveries of 25- 40%, and localized gusts to 25 mph will be the main factors behind the elevated threat. However, the winds will remain onshore, leading to the fire weather threat being diurnally driven, especially in the foothills where lighter winds and good overnight recoveries are expected each night. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1229 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 (Monday through Saturday) Expect Monday to feature similar conditions to today. Late on Monday, a shortwave trough, or perhaps a weak cutoff low, develops into the Pacific Northwest, pushing the ridge axis towards the west and north and causing a noticeable cooling trend to begin on Tuesday and lasting for at least the following two days. High temperatures drop into the middle 70s to middle 80s inland and the upper 60s to the middle 70s along the Bayshore, with the coast remaining rather stable at the upper 50s to lower 60s. Towards the end of the forecast period, the forecast becomes a little more uncertain. Ensemble model cluster analysis points to weak ridging (i.e. warmer temperatures) and weak troughing (i.e. cooler temperatures) by Friday, with the differences compounding through the upcoming weekend into the early part of the following week, when a significant ridge and a significant trough are possible across the western United States. With the two scenarios having nearly equal probabilities, there is not enough confidence at this time to deviate from the default NBM forecast, which depicts a gradual warming trend heading into the upcoming weekend. CPC outlooks suggest a slight lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages in the 8-14 day period (July 20-26). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 951 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals with VFR expected shortly at all terminals with the exception of HAF which is slated to remain sub-VFR through the TAF period. High confidence in all terminals deteriorating to sub-VFR conditions again tonight as the pattern largely remains unchanged. Coastal drizzle will be possible during the overnight and morning hours. Smoke from wildfires burning in Northern California will likely filter into the region and reduce slight range visibilities. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. Westerly flow will return once the sea breeze kicks in this afternoon. High confidence in sub-VFR ceilings returning tonight, likely on the cusp of IFR/MVFR. SFO Bridge Approach...The approach still has some low stratus this morning, but that should evaporate very quickly. Low stratus clouds will begin to filter in through the Golden Gate Gap by 01Z with visuals likely being impacted through 18Z Monday. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with westerly flow at MRY and IFR and calm at SNS. Both terminals are expected to improve to VFR shortly with stratus sticking to the coast during the day. High confidence in LIFR ceilings returning to both terminals tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 824 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Localized hazardous marine conditions in the form of strong northerly breezes and very rough seas will be present Monday and Tuesday for the northern outer waters. Aside from that, a gentle to moderate breeze with moderate to rough seas will prevail through Thursday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea