Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

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FXUS66 KMTR 212355
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
455 PM PDT Sun Apr 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure building over the region will result in
a warming and drying trend through midweek. Temperatures will warm
well above seasonal averages by Tuesday with weak offshore flow.
Temperatures will then moderate and cool slightly late in the week
as the ridge of high pressure weakens.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 02:19 PM PDT Sunday...Locally breezy
conditions persist over the region this afternoon with
temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s near the coast and
middle 60s to lower 70s inland. While sky conditions are mainly
clear for much of the region, low clouds are once again developing
from the Monterey Peninsula southward along the coast to around
Point Sur. Looking for low clouds to return to some coastal areas
tonight, especially around the Monterey Bay, while high pressure
building aloft limits inland intrusion.

A more robust warming trend will begin on Monday and continue
through the first half of the week as the aforementioned high
pressure strengthens over the region. Look for more widespread 70s
and 80s for the interior with upper 60s to lower 70s near the coast
on Monday. Additional warming is likely for Tuesday when some
interior locations could reach into the lower 90s. Weak offshore
flow will also push warmer conditions all the way to the coast by
Tuesday where we could see middle 70s to even lower 80s for
locations such as Santa Cruz. While these warm conditions are likely
to persist over inland areas on Wednesday, the forecast models do
cool conditions slightly near the coast. Will have to monitor for
the return of the marine layer and its influences across coastal
areas by midweek.

Temperatures trend slightly cooler for the latter half of the week
as the ridge flattens and shifts inland in advance of an approaching
mid/upper level trough. The operational forecast models have started
to show an upper level low undercutting the ridge and brining some
light precipitation to southern California by the upcoming weekend.
Ensemble members are also hinting at very light QPF (a few
hundredths of an inch or so) over the Central Coast and southern
California by day 7 and 8 of the forecast period. With very low
confidence at this time, will keep dry conditions in the official
forecast but will continue to monitor trends in the coming days.
Regardless, not expecting widespread rainfall or major impacts to
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...As of 04:55 PM PDT Sunday...VFR will give way to some
IFR/MVFR conditions overnight at most terminals, with exception
of LVK and SJC. Though some clouds could creep into SJC. Expecting
clouds to dissipate early Monday morning as high pressure builds
from the west and causes some offshore flow to develop. Clouds may
be a bit more persistent in the Monterey region. Otherwise, look
for a repeat of today for tomorrow.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. Breezy winds through the San Bruno gap
this afternoon. SCT clouds 1000-1500 ft possible late overnight
into Monday morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Breezy winds from the north, others similar
to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the afternoon. Marine layer
return expected later into the evening and overnight. Some models
bringing a little bit of drizzle to the coast with the marine
layer early Monday morning (prior and up to sunrise). Breezy
onshore winds this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...as of 11:14 AM PDT Sunday...Gusty northwest winds across
the waters today. Occasional gale force gusts are possible through
tonight. These gusty winds will generate steep fresh swell that is
hazardous for small craft vessels. Northwest winds dissipate
somewhat into midweek. Northwest seas.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Mry Bay until 3 AM


&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass
AVIATION: BFG
MARINE: DRP

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