Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 041145 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 545 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 ...Updated for 12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION...
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Issued at 325 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Satellite imagery was showing the large scale pattern has reverted to a well amplified ridge enveloping the western half of the CONUS. Also noted was a closed off circulation undercutting the ridge currently lifting past the four corners. Models continue to indicate precip associated with the aforementioned upper low will remain just south of the CWA and expand across KS/OK. Thus, a dry forecast will remain in place through Monday night. In general, mostly clear skies and well above temperatures will be the rule the rest of this week. Precip chances return to the region early next week. A shortwave off the west coast is progged to move ashore on Monday with several embedded vort maxes ejecting from the system and moving into the northern Plains. Synoptic scale lift via DPVA will increase resulting in surface cyclogenesis over the western Dakotas early Tuesday morning. Expect precip to break out just north of the surface low within area of increasing isentropic upglide. Precip will expand southward through the day and eventually reach the CWA by Tuesday evening. In the meantime, as the upper shortwave migrates eastward and associated surface low lifts into the upper Midwest, the leading edge of a cold front will make its way through the CWA. Precip chances will remain in play through at least Wednesday evening with focus centered over the eastern CWA where forcing and moisture will be more prevalent. Highs Today - mid/upper 60s Fri - lower/mid 50s Sat - upper 50s/lower 60s Sun - lower 60s Mon - lower/mid 60s Tue - upper 60s/lower 70s Wed - mid 50s/lower 60s Thu - mid 40s/lower 50s
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&& .AVIATION...
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(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 540 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Winds are pretty light now but will be increasing from the east during the day. There have been some areas of fog in Iowa, and that airmass will generally be over much of our area Thursday night. Although all not all model guidance is in agreement, we expect that some fog and low clouds will develop. MVFR to IFR conditions appear possible after 06Z tonight, with highest chances of IFR ceilings and visibilities at KOFK.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DEE AVIATION...Miller

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