Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 191752 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1252 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 ...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 351 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 Large scale pattern this morning consisting of a very broad trough enveloping the eastern half of the CONUS with embedded shortwaves over the upper Midwest and southwestern states. A cold front associated with the upper Midwest wave extended from the western Great Lakes to about southwest NE. Radar mosaic was showing returns along the boundary in northwest IA/northeast NE/southwest SD. No significant snow accumulations expected over the northern CWA this morning as dominate precip type will likely be a mix of rain and snow. As precip expands southward...expect all rain by afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate further this evening and will be focused south of the I-80 corridor. Synoptic scale lift increases dramatically as axis of stout isentropic upglide/moisture advection invades the southern CWA. Strong mid layer ageostrophic lift/differential divergence contributing to overall forcing. Models in good agreement 700mb frontogenetic forcing accompanying mid layer shortwave will drop across NE/KS with snow band intensifying toward midnight. This coincident to max dendritic omega moving through. As of now, it appears that locations south of I-80 in southeast NE may see accumulations from 2-4 inches by events end Tuesday morning. Given this, will issue a winter weather advisory for potential impact. In addition to this, will be issuing a freeze watch generally south of a line from Walnut IA to David City in anticipation Tuesday night lows falling into the mid/upper 20s. Medium range models continue showing a vigorous vort max crossing the region late next week. Lift via DPVA/isentropic upglide suggest some chance for rain Thursday night through Friday. Highs Tdy - low 40s Tue - mid 40s Wed - upper 40s/low 50s Thu - mid 50s Fri - low 60s Sat - upper 50s/low 60s Sun - mid/upper 60s && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021 Areas of light snow will continue over the region through 03Z Tuesday, but any impacts will be minimal. Then between 03Z and 12Z Tuesday a band of moderate snow is expected south of Interstate 80. This snow may affect KLNK for a period of time, no impacts are expected at KOFK, and minimal impacts are possible at KOMA. Visibility restrictions of 1 to 4 sm and ceilings of 1,500 to 2,500 ft AGL are expected in the heavier snow. Snow should come to an end by 12Z Tuesday, and we can expect unrestricted visibility and ceilings AOA 5,000 ft AGL between 12Z and 18Z Tuesday. Apart from the snow, northwest winds will be breezy through around 23Z today. Peak gusts of 20 to 28 kt are expected through 22Z today. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for NEZ050>053-065>068-078-088>093. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for NEZ088>093. IA...Freeze Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for IAZ069-079-080-090-091. && $$ DISCUSSION...DEE AVIATION...Albright

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