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244
FXUS64 KOHX 301640
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1140 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Rest of today through tonight)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

For most of Middle TN, it`s a mix of clouds and sun at forecast
time. However, a few on the Cumberland Plateau are catching a shower
this morning. This should be the case for the next few hours before
the backside of our system from last night pulls further away from
the mid-state. Everyone should be rain-free before sunset. Also, the
cumulus across the area should dissipate about this time, too. With
light to calm winds and dew points remaining elevated, areas of fog
are going to be possible tonight. A lot of it will be closer to
bodies of water -- this is likely where it will be most dense -- but
it may become widespread enough where we may need an advisory. I`ll
let the evening shift take another look at it this evening to
determine if an advisory will be needed.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Wednesday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

High pressure builds into the area tomorrow and Thursday, setting
the stage for our warmest days of the year, so far. Mid to upper 80s
are likely and while models still haven`t ticked BNA up to 90 for
forecast highs on Thursday, there`s still a 70-80% chance we get
there.

Models continue to bring our next chance for rain back to Middle TN
late Thursday night/first thing Friday morning. I`ve been looking
over forecast soundings for Friday and I`ll admit, they are
interesting. A good deal of CAPE is expected to build into the
region (likely north of 1000 J/Kg) and mid-level lapse rates top
out around 7.0 deg/km, however shear is almost non-existent as the
surface low and associated upper support is up near the US/Canada
border. It`s not likely to happen, but if we get any sort of
secondary surface low to develop in the southwest flow and get
some shear to develop, Friday`s severe chances will increase. In
any event, rain chances will linger into Friday night and while we
may see a break for a good portion of Saturday, more rain chances
quickly move back into the area on Sunday and they could stick
with us into Monday, as well. While severe chances are low to
zero, you are going to want to pay attention to the forecast if
you have outdoor plans this weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Periods of low cigs continue across the area with SHRA moving
across the Plateau and eventually out of the area. All TAF sites
should return to VFR with predominantly northerly winds by 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Nashville      80  59  87  62 /  30   0   0   0
Clarksville    79  57  86  61 /  10   0   0   0
Crossville     70  53  80  57 /  90   0   0   0
Columbia       80  55  86  60 /  20   0   0   0
Cookeville     73  55  81  59 /  80   0   0   0
Jamestown      71  54  81  57 /  90   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   78  56  85  60 /  40   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   79  55  86  59 /  50   0   0   0
Waverly        80  58  87  62 /  10   0   0   0
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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Adcock