Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KOKX 240758
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
358 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds toward the region today, moving overhead
tonight. The high then moves off the mid Atlantic coast
Saturday. A cold frontal passage Sunday night will be followed
by the return of a warm front during the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The sub tropical ridge will build back into the region through
today as a departing shortwave moves into the western Atlantic.
Subsidence will be increasing through the day with drying
conditions. A deep northwest flow will be gusty as the pressure
gradient force between the departing low and building high
remains strong. Mixing will be fairly deep, 900 to 850 MB, with
frequent gusts between 20 and 30 kt. Winds diminish late in the
afternoon as mixing become more limited with increasing
subsidence. Temperatures will be fairly uniform across the
region, and leaned toward warmer highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
The ridge builds through tonight and then begins to flatten
Saturday as the next northern stream shortwave moves into the
upper midwest and Great Lakes region. Winds will become near
calm to light and variable as surface high pressure builds into
the region. And with nearly clear conditions radiational cooling
will be nearly ideal. A return flow develops Saturday, however,
with weak warm advection and increasing clouds highs will be
only slightly higher then Friday, and cooler at the coast with
an onshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warm front is timed for Sat ngt. The NAM, GFS and ECMWF all
have this timing. This will produce a round of shwrs and tstms
across the cwa. High chance to likely pops have been included in
the fcst. The area warms up on Sun with wly llvl flow ahead of
the next cdfnt Sun ngt. Temps may hit 90 in the usual hot spots
of nern NJ. If the wly flow does indeed keep the sea breeze off,
most areas may verify abv guidance and the current fcst. Low
chances for pcpn with the front Sun ngt. The models are pretty
dry for the cwa, with the best activity s of the region.
Memorial Day looks dry attm with hipres ridging swd thru the
cwa. The next chance for shwrs and tstms comes Tue with another
warm front. The boundary may linger in the vicinity thru the
rest of the fcst period, so low chances for shwrs and tstms were
included. Temps were close to the NBM thru the extended. A mini
heatwave is possible Wed/Thu, although it is too far out to
have high confidence in occurrence or timing.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds in behind a departing cold front.

VFR. W winds bcmg NW after sunrise. Winds eventually increase to 15-
20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt by noon before gradually weakening in the
evening.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Winds favor south of 310 magnetic until around 15-
16z, then north of it thereafter. Strongest gusts most likely occur
from approx 14-19z.
The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Winds favor south of 310 magnetic until around 15-
16z, then north of it thereafter. Strongest gusts most likely occur
from approx 14-19z.
The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Winds favor south of 310 magnetic until around 15-
16z, then north of it thereafter, but could still vary between 290-
330 magnetic through the afternoon. Strongest gusts most likely
occur from approx 14-19z.
The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 29-32 kt possible mainly from 14-
19z.

KHPN TAF Comments: No tactical amendments scheduled and no strategic
amendments expected.

KISP TAF Comments: Chc tempo MVFR/IFR cigs 9-11z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Tonight...VFR.
.Saturday...Mostly VFR, except chance of MVFR or lower in
showers/thunderstorms overnight.
.Sunday...Mostly VFR. Slight chance of showers.
.Monday...VFR
.Tuesday...Chc of MVFR or lower with showers/thunderstorms in
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty northwest winds will be developing today as low pressure
moves off the New England coast and south of Nova Scotia and
high pressure builds to the west of the forecast waters. Wind
gusts will range from 25 to 30 kt through most of the day,
diminishing late this afternoon into the early evening.
Currently a SCA remains in effect through 800 PM tonight for all
the forecast waters. Wind gusts may fall below advisory levels
earlier as the high builds toward the waters. In addition ocean
seas remain around 5 feet, mainly east of Fire Island Inlet, and
will be subsiding in the northwest flow. Winds and seas will
then remain below SCA levels late this evening through Saturday
across the forecast waters.

Winds and seas are expected to remain blw sca lvls Sun-Wed,
although tstms will be capable of producing locally hazardous
conditions at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated today-Thu.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ330-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
EQUIPMENT...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.