Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 011808
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
108 PM EST Thu Dec 1 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in today into Friday night, before giving
way to a fast moving cold front Saturday. High pressure follows
for Sunday and Monday, then a low pressure system impacts the
weather on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast remains on track.

Condition continue to be cool and breezy, with strengthening
high pressure building in. Winds are expected to diminish
this afternoon as the pressure gradient begins to relax. WNW
gusts today will peak around 30 mph.

Cold air advection will continue with a backing profile noted in
the forecast soundings today, leading to below normal
temperatures. Highs will only reach the lower to middle 40s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Clear skies thanks to subsidence from the high, the center of
which should be overhead tonight, will also allow for light
winds. This will lead to ideal radiational cooling conditions
for the outlying areas. Leaned toward the lower side of guidance
for these areas for lows tonight, where temperatures in the
upper teens and 20s are expected. Elsewhere, lows will be in
the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Highs on Friday will be a few degrees warmer than Thursday as
the high slides offshore and a return southerly flow sets up.
Despite warm advection, highs will be near normal for this time
of year on Friday.

South to southwesterly winds will be on the increase Friday as
low pressure over the north central Plains states intensifies as
it heads northeast into southern Canada by Saturday morning.
This pressure gradient, along with a low level jet at around 925
hPa of 50 to 65 kt during the day Saturday, will create another
round of windy conditions. Right now, it does not appear that
it will be as windy as it recently was, but gusts up to 40 mph
are possible.

As warm air advection ramps up on Saturday, temperatures will
continue to rise to above normal levels, with highs in the 50s
to around 60 across the forecast area.

Another cold front, in association with the low, will approach
Saturday and move through Saturday night. Much like this past
recent event, the strongest winds may be in association with any
line of showers that may develop with the cold front`s passage.
Up to a third of an inch of rainfall is forecast with the cold
front Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern for Sunday and Monday with dry weather. High
temperatures will be a few degrees below normal on Sunday, but then
moderate to near normal for Monday.

Global models continue to be in better agreement that the next low
pressure system impacts the weather here as early as late Monday
night, but more likely Tuesday into Tuesday night. A piece of energy
moving around a deep upper level low/trough over central Canada will
help develop a weak but broad area of low pressure that will
approach from the west and pass through during Tuesday into Tuesday
night. With this period being day 6, will cap PoPs at chance. Also
good model agreement so far that thermal profiles support an all-
rain event for just about the entire area, but will still leave in
the possibility of a wintry mix at the onset of precip late Monday
night into Tuesday well north and west of NYC. This system should
pass through fairly quickly with a zonal to slightly cyclonic flow
aloft. Left in a slight chance of precip for Wednesday night to
account for timing uncertainty, but as it currently stands, the
entire day is likely dry as high pressure builds in behind the
departing system. Highs slightly above normal on Tuesday, then near
normal for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR as high pressure builds from the west through tonight, then
passes east on Friday.

Cigs are scattering out as anticipated. WNW winds 15-20G25-30kt
this afternoon until about 22Z, then gradually diminish through
this evening. Gusts should abate before midnight. As the high
slides east on Fri, Winds should become SW-S 5-10 kt after
15Z-16Z.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday...VFR.
.Saturday...Rain with MVFR cond. IFR cond possible. S-SW winds
15-20G25-30kt, highest toward the coast. Cold fropa late
day/early evening, with winds shifting W-NW G20-25kt and
improvement to VFR.
.Sunday and Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...Chance of rain, possibly mixed with snow at KSWF
early AM, with MVFR or lower cond. SE winds G15-20kt along the
coast.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs continue through the day today, coming down below SCA
criteria by early this evening. SCA may linger on the eastern
ocean zone as waves remain above 5 ft here until midnight or
just prior.

Sub-SCA conditions then expected late tonight through the first
half of Friday night.

Winds increase as the pressure gradient increases between
exiting high and strengthening low pressure over the north
central Plains states. The ocean waters will see SCA gusts late
Friday night, with all other waters by Saturday morning. There
is the potential for gales during the day Saturday, especially
the ocean waters.

Sub-SCA conditions return from west to east on non-ocean waters
late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening with the passage
of the cold front, with SCAs continuing on the ocean waters for
most of Saturday night.

5 ft seas linger on the eastern ocean waters Sunday morning, then
subside below advisory criteria for the afternoon with the help of
diminishing winds. Winds and seas remain below advisory criteria
Sunday night and Monday as a weak surface ridge passes through and
shifts offshore.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...BC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC/JP
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP


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