Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 200005
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
805 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the mid Atlantic and southeastern coast will
drift into the western Atlantic tonight as low pressure moves
through eastern Canada and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. The cold front will move across the region late
Saturday into Saturday evening. Strong high pressure builds
west of the region for the second half of the weekend, building
into the local area Sunday night into Monday. This high will
shift off the Mid Atlantic coast on Monday followed by a weak
clipper like system tracking through New England on Tuesday.
High pressure then returns for mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Forecast is on track with only minor changes made for this
update to reflect current conditions. Light returns seen on
radar to the west of the CWA that should make its way into
western Orange county through 830 pm. However, large
temperature/dew point spread will mean plenty of virga, though
a stray showers cannot be ruled out.

The forecast remains consistent with the previous forecast and
current model guidance. As such, precipitation is expected to
develop later this evening as the upper ridge moves into the
western Atlantic and one shortwave rotates through the eastern
longwave trough. Increased probabilities to likely for the
overnight with increased confidence and model consistency. This
will be associated with a second shortwave rotating through the
upper longwave trough and associated cold frontal boundary.
With the front isentropic lift will be increasing. A mild
airmass remains in place ahead of the cold front and
temperatures are expected to remain mild and not drop off too
quickly.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The amplifying eastern trough and strong western ridge will keep
the progression of the front slow, and the chances of
precipitation will remain through Saturday and into Saturday
evening. The low level forcing and isentropic lift with the cold
front will be decreasing Saturday and lowered probabilities to
low chance and slight chance. However, the upper shortwave
remain rather strong and with the amplifying upper trough these
chances may need to be increased. For now, the precipitation
looks to be over around or just after 06Z Sunday, with the
surface cold front east to the forecast area. Strong cold
advection Saturday night will send temperatures to below
seasonal levels once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds into the region on Sunday with dry and
breezy conditions as the pressure gradient over the area remains
fairly tight. Although downsloping winds should offset some of
the cold air advection, high temperatures are still forecast to
fall short of normal highs by about 10 degrees. Winds subside
Sunday night as the ridge axis of high pressure shifts in. This
will allow temperatures to fall below freezing for many inland
locations and Pine Barrens Region, with mid and upper 30s for
coastal sections.

The high moves offshore on Monday with a slightly moderating
airmass over the region. High temperatures will still be below
normals however. A warm front approaches Monday night, followed
by a cold front during Tuesday. These are associated with a low
pressure system moving through New England. Models haven`t
really trended wetter for this time period, so will continue
with a dry forecast for now. The warm advection prior to the
cold front will at least allow for highs to reach near-normal
levels on Tuesday.

High pressure builds in behind this system, with dry weather
for Wednesday and Thursday. A return to below-normal
temperatures both days with Wednesday possibly being on the
breezy side. Models show high pressure holding on long enough to
go with a dry forecast for Friday as well.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong low pressure will move across southeast Canada through
Saturday with its attending cold front approaching from the
west. This front is forecast to move across area terminals
Saturday afternoon, followed by a reinforcing cold front
Saturday evening.

Gusts in SW flow continue to be occasional early this eve, so
have pushed onset forward a couple of hours, to when the
surface high should be farther offshore and a stronger pressure
gradient develops. Then expect gusts close to 25 kt at KJFK and
either side of 20 kt elsewhere tonight, and even then they
could be more occasional at times or even drop off for a time.

Moisture streaming in well ahead of the front should lead to a
period of light showers and MVFR conditions from about 11Z-14Z at
the NYC metros. It is possible the onset could be an hour or two
sooner than that.

 ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Gusts may remain occasional until the morning
push. Onset of MVFR conds could be 1-2 hr sooner than fcst.

KLGA TAF Comments: Gusts may remain occasional until the morning
push. Onset of MVFR conds could be 1-2 hr sooner than fcst.

KEWR TAF Comments: Gusts may remain occasional until the morning
push. Onset of MVFR conds could be 1-2 hr sooner than fcst.

KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional and even briefly
subside this eve, then return for the morning push. Onset of
MVFR conds could be 1-2 hr sooner than fcst.

KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts may begin a few hours earlier than
forecast. Onset of MVFR conds could be 1-2 hr sooner than fcst.

KISP TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional and even briefly
subside this eve, then return late tonight. Onset of MVFR conds
could be 1-2 hr sooner than fcst.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night...VFR. A few showers are possible. NW winds
10-15G20KT.
.Sunday...VFR. NW winds 15-20G20-30KT.
.Sunday night...VFR. NW winds 10-15G20KT in the evening.
.Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday...VFR. WSW winds G15-20KT.
.Wednesday...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT.

&&

.MARINE...
Low level winds were slow to increase, and mix to the water.
However, SCA conditions will be developing by early this
evening, with gale conditions on the ocean waters as mixing in
the southwest flow and low level winds do increase. Gale
conditions are still expected into Saturday morning when winds
will begin to diminish, and then SCA level winds will remain
through Saturday, and into Saturday night. The gale warning on
the ocean, and the SCA on the remainder of the waters remains
in effect. On the non ocean waters SCA wind gusts may linger
into Saturday night.

SCA conditions expected on Sunday with a gusty NW flow, and
there will be chance of a few gale force gusts over the ocean
waters. Winds and seas then subside Sunday night with all waters
likely below advisory criteria by daybreak on Monday.

A high pressure ridge will then bring a period of relatively
tranquil conditions over the waters for Monday and Monday night.
Low pressure then moves through New England on Tuesday with a
tightening pressure gradient over here. This brings a good
chance of SCA conds over the ocean as well as the eastern Sound
and bays.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/19
NEAR TERM...JP/19
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...
MARINE...JC/19
HYDROLOGY...JC/19
EQUIPMENT...


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