Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 250241
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1041 PM EDT Fri Jun 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control through the weekend. A frontal
system impacts the area Monday and Monday night. High pressure
will then build in for Tuesday and remains in control through
the end of the week. Another frontal system may impact the area
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Any showers that had developed earlier dissipated. The forecast
remain on track this evening with just a few minor adjustments
to reflect current observations.

Otherwise, a building upper ridge from the Lower Mississippi
Valley into the Northeast and a departing upper low off the New
England coast will result in a warmer than normal weekend. Dry
conditions are expected.

Under mostly clear skies tonight, lows will be near normal in
the mid 60s to around 70, warmest across the NYC metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be situated offshore Saturday into Saturday
night with a daytime thermal trough setting up across the area.
This will result in a late morning/afternoon seabreeze
development and enhancement, while the remainder of the area
will be under a light W/SW flow. Likely to also see some
afternoon CU development along the seabreeze, much like Friday,
but a strong mid level cap will keep convection at bay. For the
most part, expect mostly sunny skies with highs well into the
mid and upper 80s for, except around 90 for the NYC/NJ metro.
Right along the south shore of LI and coastal SE CT, highs will
be in the mid 70s to around 80. These highs will be about 5 to 8
degrees above normal. With dew points in the upper 50s to lower
60s, heat index values will be right around the apparent
temperature. so no heat headlines.

For Saturday night, a bit warmer with lows a few degrees above
normal, ranging from the mid to upper 60s outlying areas, to
around 70 across the NYC metro. Light south or variable winds
can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure will be situated off the East Coat Sunday,
while some weak ridging aloft behind a cut off low over or just
south of the Canadian Maritimes. To the west, a surface cold front
approaches, along with its associated upper level trough. Conditions
will be dry through the day Sunday, with continued warm and
increasingly humid conditions thanks to the continued southerly flow
and upper level riding. Highs are expected to be in the middle to
upper 80s.

The chances for showers increase from west to east from late Sunday
night into Monday morning as the cold front makes its way through
the forecast area. However, the best timing for any showers looks to
be during the day Monday. Instability does not look too impressive
at the surface, and slightly better aloft, so there could be some
elevated convection associated with the showers moving through with
the front. However, do not think it will be too widespread, and
opted for isolated thunderstorms. Temperatures on Monday will be
lower than Sunday thanks to cloud coverage, and will likely average
a degree or two below normal for this time of year, with highs in
the middle to upper 70s.

The front looks to clear the coast late Monday night, with perhaps
some lingering showers possible for eastern areas early Tuesday
morning, but for now, went with a dry forecast for Tuesday. Highs on
Tuesday will be similar to Monday, only under more sun and a
noticeably drier air mass.

Dry conditions continue through the end of the week with high
pressure in control. Though some showers may work into western
portions of the area Friday as another cold front approaches from
the west. Temperatures slowly warm Wednesday through Friday, but no
extreme heat is seems to be on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure builds into the region through tonight and
remains in place Saturday.

VFR. At a few of the outlying terminals few to scattered
stratus is possible toward Saturday morning, with a low chance
of conditions becoming MVFR to IFR. VFR during the day on Sat.

Light and variable winds tngt at the outlying terminals with a
light SW flow in the NYC metro area. Sea breezes develop on
Saturday.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday night-Sunday...VFR.
.Sunday Night-Monday night...MVFR or lower in showers. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms possible.
.Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are generally expected to be below advisory levels
through Wednesday. There is a chance that seas could briefly
reach 5 ft tonight on the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet
due to a SW flow of 10-15 kt for much of the night and a
southerly swell around 3 ft. Seas on the ocean may again
briefly approach 5 ft on Monday with the passage of a cold
front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Thursday of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches through this evening and Saturday due to 3-4 ft at 8-9
second SE swells affecting the coast.

There is a high risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches for Sunday for the NYC and Nassau beaches due to 3-4 ft
at 8-9 second SE swells as well as increasing southerly flow in
the afternoon. Wind speeds are expected to be somewhat lighter
for Suffolk county and a moderate rip current development is
forecast for these beaches.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


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