Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
789
FXUS61 KOKX 160831
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
431 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push through the region today followed by
high pressure through the remainder of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weakening front will pass south and east of the region this
morning. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible, mainly in
the afternoon. Any rain amounts will remain light as the system is
lacking in moisture and forcing.

High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Sunday with the
increase in clouds. Light winds will also limit mixing so
temperatures will stay in the mid 70s to near 80.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will follow behind the front and despite a mostly
clear sky, areas around NYC will have slightly more wind and
radiational cooling will be more limited. Where winds will go light,
expect temperatures to drop into the lower to mid 50s, mainly for
the Pine Barrens of Long Island and the interior. Locations closer
to the cost will stay in the upper 50s to around 60, which is below
normal.

Tuesday will feel like Fall as a northeasterly flow sets up
around high pressure and lower dewpoints move into the region.
Highs will remain in the 70s during the day under a mostly sunny
sky.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches on Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deterministic models and ensemble means indicate the synoptic
pattern in the long term will be dominated by ridging aloft and at
the surface. This will lead to dry conditions into the upcoming
weekend.

A longwave trough over the Canadian Maritimes extending down across
the Western Atlantic will be slow to progress eastward through
Wednesday. The trough gradually moves further into the Atlantic the
end of the week into the weekend. At the same time, an anomalous
ridge will dominate over much of the eastern CONUS. The axis of this
ridge should lie over the northeast Friday into the weekend. Surface
high pressure ridges down from New England Tuesday night through
Thursday. The core of the high shifts to our southwest on Friday and
then should remain in a similar location through the weekend. This
pattern will help to take Humberto well out to sea through the week.
The only indirect impact we could see here are strong rip currents
at Atlantic ocean beaches and rough surf due to an increasing
easterly swell late in the week. Refer to the National Hurricane
Center for official forecast information on Humberto.

The strong ridging should prevent any significant cloud cover.
However, NE-E onshore flow on Wednesday and a strong inversion
around 5-6 kft could trap moisture and bring mostly cloudy skies.
Have bumped up sky cover to indicate partly to mostly cloudy skies,
with highest amount of clouds near the coast. Forecast soundings
indicate the inversion weakens Wednesday night and mostly clear
conditions should then prevail into the weekend.

Temperatures are likely be a few degrees below normal in the upper
60s and low 70s on Wednesday due to the increased cloud cover. Below
normal temperatures in the low 70s continue into Thursday, then
return to seasonable levels on Friday in the middle and upper 70s.
The warming trend continues into the weekend as highs will be in the
upper 70s to near 80 for most locations except low to middle 80s
possible in the NYC/NJ metro area Friday through Sunday with
high temperatures warmer than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak cold front crosses the area today, then high pressure
builds into the region.

Clouds will continue to lower and thicken this morning. In
general, VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF
period, although a period of MVFR ceilings is possible this
afternoon at KSWF. In addition, a few sprinkles or showers are
possible across the area today, although no impact is expected
to visibilities as any rain will remain light.

Timing of changes in wind direction remains a challenge with
light flow overall. In general, winds shift to the N/NE at most
terminals between 11Z-14Z. While winds will maintain a
northerly component through much of the day at most terminals,
E/SE winds are possible for a period late this morning into the
afternoon at coastal terminals. Winds then back to the NE again
tonight.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Low confidence in the timing of wind shifts
into this evening, although speeds are expected to remain 10 kt
or less.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Low confidence in the timing of wind shifts
into this evening, although speeds are expected to remain 10 kt
or less.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW...which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Low confidence in the timing of wind shifts
into this evening, although speeds are expected to remain 10 kt
or less.

KHPN TAF Comments: Low confidence in the timing of wind shifts
into this evening, although speeds are expected to remain 10 kt
or less.

KISP TAF Comments: Low confidence in the timing of wind shifts
into this evening, although speeds are expected to remain 10 kt
or less.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday night...VFR with clearing skies.
.Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR with high pressure in control.
.Thursday and Friday...VFR. Can`t rule out late night/early
morning radiation fog at the inland terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Monday night.
Occasional gusts near 20 kt are expected late Monday night, mainly
for the ocean. Winds diminish through the day on Tuesday.

Winds Tuesday night through Friday will remain below 25 kt.
Ocean seas will build Wednesday into Friday and an SCA will likely
be needed. Long period swells from Humberto are forecast to increase
during this time, helping to build ocean seas above 5 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts through the end of the week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CB
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...CB/DS
HYDROLOGY...CB/DS
EQUIPMENT...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.