Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 231934
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
334 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary
stalled south of the region tonight. High pressure builds from
the west on Wednesday and remains in place through the weekend,
before shifting offshore early next week ahead of a slowly
approaching frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A frontal boundary will remains south of Long Island tonight.
The final wave, in what has been a series of lows, will travel
along this front. With the front continuing to gradually shift
south, the best chances for precipitation will be across Long
Island and far southeastern Connecticut. Depending on how close
to the coast the final wave passes, some patchy may develop,
especially if the winds become light.

Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies with lows falling into
the upper 50s and 60s.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the Atlantic Ocean
beaches for the remainder of the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Dry conditions return Wednesday morning as the front shifts
farther offshore and high pressure builds in from the west.
Under increasingly sunny skies, temperatures are expected to
rise into the lower 80s.

The dry weather continues Wednesday night with mostly clear
skies and lows in the 50s and 60s.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at the Atlantic Ocean
beaches on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With the frontal system finally offshore, an elongated upper ridge
and attendant surface high build into the area through the weekend,
before shifting offshore early next week as an upper trough slowly
approaches the area. With high pressure as the dominant feature,
relatively tranquil and dry weather can be expected, though heat and
humidity will gradually increase each day. Went a few degrees above
guidance into the weekend given the W-SW flow. The next chance of
showers or thunderstorms may not be til early next week as the cold
front slowly approaches the region, though often deterministic model
guidance is too quick to break down strong upper ridging, which will
then be dominant over the western Atlantic by then. There is
potential as this break down occurs, that it will be slow, and with
southwest flow advecting Gulf moisture into the region the potential
for heavy rainfall may increase again.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Waves of low pressure will ride along a stalled frontal
boundary will produce generally MVFR across the area. VFR
conditions are expected to return this evening for a short time
but may remain MVFR in and around scattered light showers.
Overnight...widespread MVFR returns with localized IFR for NYC
terminals and points east. Best chance of showers is across
eastern terminals KISP and KGON but confidence is low. VFR is
expected on Wednesday.

Winds should generally be from the north/northeast less than 10kt
throughout a good part of the TAF period. However, with multiple
waves of low pressure passing offshore, wind direction could
fluctuate somewhat.

...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Some amendments possible for changing flight
categories and winds.

KLGA TAF Comments: Some amendments possible for changing flight
categories and winds.

KEWR TAF Comments: Some amendments possible for changing flight
categories and winds.

KTEB TAF Comments: Some amendments possible for changing flight
categories and winds.

KHPN TAF Comments: Some amendments possible for changing flight
categories and winds.

KISP TAF Comments: Some amendments possible for changing flight
categories and winds.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
21z Wednesday through Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A wave of low pressure will travel along a stalled frontal
boundary tonight. Seas will generally remain between 4-6 ft,
however seas are expected to subside tonight. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters.

Once seas subside tonight, conditions are expected to remain
below SCA criteria into the weekend as high pressure builds into
the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the remainder of the
week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/MD
NEAR TERM...BC
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...MD
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...BC/MD
HYDROLOGY...BC/MD
EQUIPMENT...



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