Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 220829
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
429 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will approach this morning and lift through the
area late this afternoon or during the evening. A cold front
follows late tonight into Wednesday morning. High pressure
returns behind the frontal passage and remains through Saturday.
Another frontal system impacts the area on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper level ridge axis shifts east of the local area early this
morning. A shortwave trough will track through the Great Lakes
today with its associated sfc low arriving in western NY state
this evening. Onset of rain is slightly slower than 24 hours
ago, especially the NAM and CMCReg which hold any pcpn off in
NYC until late this aftn. Hi-res models including the
HRRR, 3km NAM, and all members of SPC`s HREF bring showers in
this morning (aft 12z) from W to E. Have compromised on the
timing, although leaned towards the latter (faster) solutions

Based on latest radar imagery, may need to increase PoPs
slightly early this morning N and W of NYC as a band of showers
and tstms in central PA approach.

Otherwise, an overrunning pattern strengthens this morning with
additional showers overspreading the area. Marginal elevated
instability develops late this aftn N and W and have adjusted
timing of thunder in the grids to confine it mainly to Orange
County late.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warm front lifts into the area this eve, but may struggle to
lift through until parent low pressure traversing northern New
England drags it through. There is also the possibility that it
doesn`t completely clear the local area before the cold front
catches up to it tonight. Showers continue this eve, but should
become more sct in nature on the south side of the warm front
and also as the cold front moves through. Marginal elevated
instability overnight will allow for the possibility of a few
rumbles of thunder. This could result in a few isold storms with
moderate to heavy rain, especially this eve as PWATS max out
between 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Have also added fog into the
forecast with the approach/passing of the warm front and light
winds tonight.

Cold front tracks across the area late tonight and pushes south
of the area Wed morning. A stray shower is possibly from NYC
and points east Wed morning with the front nearby. Skies will
clear Wed morning with a thermal trough developing and seabreezes
likely Wed aftn as high pressure builds in from the Great
Lakes.

Dry weather and above normal temps are expected Wed and Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The cold front will be moving east of the tri-state area Wednesday
morning, with still a low chance of a shower mainly SE of the Lower
Hudson Valley. Cold air advection behind the front will be weak, and
with a mostly sunny afternoon, high temperatures will be above
normal with most areas ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. High
pressure then passes through the region on Thursday and remains in
control on Friday. Dry weather continues both days with highs a
couple degrees above normal on Thursday, and then warming up even
more on Friday.

There remains some uncertainty for the holiday weekend as global
models and ensembles disagree on the surface features that would
impact our weather. Have gone closer to WPC/ECMWF depiction of a
cold front dropping down from the north on Saturday and perhaps
stalling over us at some point on Sunday, remaining in the vicinity
into Monday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will be present
all 3 days, but for now have the overall lowest chances during
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure moves off the coast of New England as a warm front and
wave of low pressure approach through this morning. The warm front
will be in the vicinity through this afternoon as a cold front
approaches from the west. The warm front may move through the
coastal terminals this evening before a cold front tracks through
the region tonight.

VFR with showers developing west to east late this morning into
this afternoon. Conditions lower to MVFR mid to late afternoon,
then to IFR this evening as the warm front moves into the area.
An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out late this afternoon
at KSWF, and then across the area this evening.

Winds will be light, under 10 KT, from the S to SW, at the metro
terminals, and light and variable across the outlying terminals.
Winds become E-ESE 5 to 10 KT during today.

   ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: MVFR conditions may develop as early as 18Z.
Winds could be NE under 10 KT for a few hours this afternoon.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: MVFR conditions may develop as early as 18Z.
Winds could be NE under 10 KT for a few hours this afternoon.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: MVFR conditions may develop as early as 17Z.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: MVFR conditions may develop as early as 17Z.

KHPN TAF Comments: Conditions lower to IFR by 21Z, however, there
may be a few hours prior to that that ceilings are MVFR.

KISP TAF Comments: Conditions lower to IFR by 22Z, maybe a hour or
two earlier. Also, there may be a few hours prior to that that
ceilings are low end MVFR, 1000-1500 FT.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Late Tuesday night...IFR in showers, isolated thunderstorms.
.Wednesday...Isolated showers in the morning, with MVFR
conditions. Then becoming VFR.
.Thursday...VFR.
.Friday...VFR. SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through
early evening.
.Saturday...VFR. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible N
and W of the metro terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient force will remain across the forecast
waters through the week as a frontal system tracks through the
region today into Wednesday. Then high pressure builds over the
waters through the end of the week. Winds and seas will remain below
SCA levels through the end of the week.

There is a low chance of small craft conditions for Friday into
Saturday when there could be gusts close to 25 KT and seas on the
coastal ocean waters build close to 5 FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Between 1/4 and 1/2 of basin avg QPF is expected today into
Wednesday. Other than some possibly isolated nuisance ponding
with any locally heavy rain from thunderstorms late this
aftn/evening, no significant hydrologic impacts are expected
through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$



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