Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 090947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
547 AM EDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Weak low pressure will meander over New England through tonight. The
low shifts away from the area on Saturday with weak high pressure
building in. The high pushes offshore late Sunday. Low pressure
moves east into the area Monday into Tuesday. The region will
be in between low pressure systems Wednesday with next low
pressure system coming from Southeast Canada. The cold front
associated with this low pressure system moves in Thursday.


Much improved air quality today as much of the smoke that has been
impacting the region the past week has generally pushed out of the
area. Current air quality conditions from the EPA ranges from
good across the Lower Hudson Valley, to moderate across
northeast New Jersey, New York City, and central and western
Long Island, to unhealthy for sensitive groups for much of the
rest of the area. Southeast Connecticut and eastern Long Island
may still see unhealthy air quality for all groups today.
Respective state environmental agencies do still have an Air
Quality Alert for today for much of the forecast area, with the
exception of Orange and Putnam counties in New York. In
Connecticut, the Air Quality Alert expires at 1 pm today.
Everywhere else, the Air Quality Alert expires at midnight.

The main weather feature today continues to be the upper level low
over northern New England. A surface trough is expected to rotate
around the upper low and impact the area mainly from late this
morning into the evening hours with showers and thunderstorms. The
best chances for precipitation will be north and west of New York
City, across the Lower Hudson Valley and inland southern

Inverted V in forecast soundings points to some of the thunderstorms
becoming strong, with small hail and gusty winds possible. Cold pool
aloft in association with the upper low and some surface heating
this afternoon will allow for steep lapse rates to develop. Models
also continue to show surface based CAPE of around 500 J/kg.
Additionally, both the freezing level and the wet bulb zero level are
less than 10 kft and a few hundred J/kg of CAPE noted in the -10 to
-30 degrees C range in the models. So, do expect some gusty winds
and small hail with these storms, but an isolated instance of large
hail (>1.0" in diameter) is not out of the question.

Highs today will be below average, in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Lows Friday night range from the upper 40s and low 50s inland to the
middle and upper 50s close to the coast.


Upper low will slowly push east tonight into Saturday. With trough
axis to the east of the area, and weak surface high pressure
building in, expect just a slight chance for showers on Saturday.
The high then pushes offshore late on Sunday, with dry conditions

A shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region Sunday, developing
into another closed low that induces a surface low late Sunday night
The attendant warm and cold fronts will slowly approach the area
Sunday night and bring the next chance for precipitation across the
forecast area.

Low pressure to our east will continue to exit the region on
Saturday, losing its influence as surface high pressure builds in
briefly from the SE with a weak ridging aloft. This will lead to
less cloud cover through the weekend, allowing highs back into
seasonal to slightly above seasonal values, particularly on Sunday.

Temperatures will be on a warming trend for the weekend, with near
normal conditions expected for Saturday, and a few degrees above
normal for many places on Sunday as deep layered ridging takes


Mid levels convey ridge moving east of the region Monday. Then a
cutoff mid level low moves in early to mid week from the Great
Lakes. This low eventually opens up with more of a trough structure
setting up north of the area for Thursday next week.

At the surface, main parent low moves into Great Lakes on Monday
with an approaching warm front. A secondary area of low pressure
develops along this front as it moves across Monday night into
Tuesday. Low pressure will be slow to exit as it moves just into the
Gulf of Maine Tuesday into Tuesday night. Then, that parent low from
the Great Lakes weakens and moves in for midweek. This will bring an
associated cold front into the area for Thursday.

Rain showers are in the forecast early through mid next week along
with possible thunderstorms from time to time, mainly afternoon into
early evening, especially Monday and Wednesday. Yet more rain
showers are in the forecast Thursday with the next cold front moving

Temperatures will not deviate much from normal.


Low pressure north of the area will eventually move farther east for
the end of the TAF period.

The residual smoke and haze has been decreasing, but could still
cause some decrease in visibility, down to MVFR for some terminals,
but this will be isolated. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected
until later this morning. Later this morning, rain showers develop
and move in from the north. These showers will increase in coverage
for the afternoon into early evening hours. The rain showers could
temporarily lower visibilities to MVFR. For the afternoon into early
evening hours, there will also be a chance for thunderstorms, some
of which could produce small hail.

Winds will be less than 10 kts through the TAF period. NW wind flow
around 5-7 kts for NYC terminals with otherwise 5 kts or less wind
speed and variable direction going into early this morning. Sea
breezes develop for some coastal terminals this afternoon with
otherwise more westerly flow remaining. There will not be much
increase in wind speed.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Exact timing of showers and thunderstorms is uncertain to narrow
down to a 1-2 hour time window.

Timing of MVFR could vary a few hours from TAF.

Wind direction could become quite variable for KEWR, KTEB, and KLGA
this afternoon into early this evening.


Late tonight: Mainly VFR. Rain showers coming to an end.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Slight chance of MVFR with rain showers mainly
across terminals in Lower Hudson Valley and Southern CT mainly
during the day and into early evening.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR at night with rain showers near
KBDR and KISP and west of these terminals, mainly late.

Monday: Rain showers with MVFR or lower. Slight chance of a
thunderstorm mainly afternoon into evening. SE gusts near 20 kt
during the day.

Tuesday: MVFR with rain showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms
afternoon into early evening near KGON.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/


Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria through Sunday
night as there will be a lack of a strong pressure gradient.

Below SCA conditions forecast on all waters Mon through Wed. SCA
could possibly develop on the ocean at times depending on how model
trends are with the magnitude of low pressure approaching.


No widespread impacts expected through next Thursday.


There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the NYC and Nassau
beaches today. The risk for these locations may start off as
low this morning, then increase to moderate later this
afternoon as long period swells move in from the southeast. All
other beaches remain low all day today as these long period
swells hold off until tonight in these locations.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for all beaches on
Saturday due to the long period swells.




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