Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 261604
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1204 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build towards the region today, and over the
area on Wednesday. A weak cold front passing by early Friday
will be followed by a warm front moving north early Saturday. A
stronger frontal system will approach for the late weekend,
moving offshore on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast on track with just some minor adjustments to dew points
to reflect latest observations.

Otherwise, Sunny skies will continue and the gusty winds are
expected to diminish through the afternoon as strong high
pressure builds towards the region from the Midwest. Highs
today only reach the middle and upper 40s.

The high will build over western NY state and PA tonight.
Nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions, so the fcst was
lowered a degree below a blend of the MET and MAV. The most
likely spots for winds to stay up would be along the immediate
coasts, particularly LI, limiting the low temp potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
High pres builds right over the region, then offshore in the
aftn. The light flow will gain an onshore component as a result.
SSTs on the ocean about 41 degrees. It will therefore be a
cooler day with reduced mixing due to the position of the high,
then the developing cool flow off the Atlc. Outside of that
however, it will be a sunny day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will move east on Thursday as a weakening cold front
approaches from the west into Thursday night. Warm southerly air
will be advected in ahead of the front which seems to get hung up
just to the west. This will allow temperatures to rise into the mid
and upper 50s during the day on Thursday with temperatures in the
lower 50s along the coast.

Latest model guidance continues to suggest a disconnect between the
parent low and the dragging cold front Thursday night but perhaps a
few showers hold together. Therefore kept a slight chance PoPs in
the forecast, with the best shower chances being to the NW.
Temperatures will fall into the 40s.

Overall continued WAA will allow afternoon highs to rise into the
60s away from the coast on Friday, and potentially into the lower
70s on Saturday. Long Island and Southern CT will still feel that
chill in the air as temperatures are likely to remain in the 50s.

Attention then turns to a cold front approaching from the west on
Sunday. However, there still remains timing and amplitude
differences in the upper level pattern, which will determine what
sensible weather impacts this front will have. Overall, rain chances
increase during the day on Sunday.

High pressure then builds in from the west on Monday with cooler
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the north and west through the TAF
period with VFR conditions. Skies will be clear during the TAF
period.

Northerly winds generally at 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt
will continue through much of this afternoon. Winds become more
NW this afternoon and subside late this afternoon going into
early this evening to a 5-10 kt range with gusts lingering late
this afternoon for the NYC terminals. Winds further subside
overnight into early Wednesday near 5 kt or less.

     NYC Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Gust end timing may be 1-3 hrs off from TAF.
Gusts may become more occasional this afternoon.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Gust end timing may be 1-3 hrs off from TAF.
Gusts may become more occasional this afternoon.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Gust end timing may be 1-3 hrs off from TAF.
Gusts may become more occasional this afternoon.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Gust end timing may be 1-3 hrs off from TAF.
Gusts may become more occasional this afternoon.

KHPN TAF Comments: Gust end timing may be 1-3 hrs off from TAF.
Gusts may become more occasional this afternoon.

KISP TAF Comments: Gust end timing may be 1-3 hrs off from TAF.
Gusts may become more occasional this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Wednesday and Wednesday night...VFR, light winds. Developing
sea breeze out of SE and S for coastal and most terminals for
Wednesday afternoon.
.Thursday...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers, especially NW
towards evening and night. Winds S around 10 kt.
.Friday...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers NW. Winds S to SW
around 10 kt.
.Saturday...Mainly VFR, slight chance of showers NW. Winds S at 10
to 15 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Have extended the Small Craft Advisory until 4pm for wind gusts
to 25 kt and seas between 3 and 5 ft on the ocean waters today.

Otherwise, winds and seas fall below SCA levels late this
afternoon and evening and will continue thru Wednesday as high
pressure builds in.

SCA gusts and SCA seas are possible Saturday into Sunday in a SW
flow ahead of an approaching cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
There will be enhanced potential for fire spread today as
relative humidities fall into the teens to lower 20s, and winds
gust to 20 to 25 mph. An Special weather statement has been
issued to address this.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated for the next 7 days.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CB/12
NEAR TERM...CB/12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...CB/BC/12
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...CB/12
EQUIPMENT...



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