Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 121147 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 747 AM EDT Mon Apr 12 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Weak waves of low pressure along a stationary boundary will pass nearby and settle just to the south through tonight. Weak high pressure builds in towards Tuesday and Wednesday, with another low pressure possibly impacting the area by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Forecast on track. This update accounts for the latest observations and trends through the morning. Widespread showers overnight have become a little more scattered. Showers are now mainly over the eastern half of the CWA but additional showers are expected to develop in western portions into the morning. As a nearly stationary warm front remains just south of the area, weak low-level WAA is continuing to force showers over the area. This unsettled weather will likely continue through much of the day with scattered showers persisting under primarily easterly flow. Mid-level vorticity over the southern Great Lakes region will push to the south of our area along the stationary front allowing for the precipitation to follow it late this afternoon. This means that areas to the NE may not see as many showers by the afternoon. Areas toward the west (i.e., Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, and the NYC metro) will likely see showers through much of the day and into the evening since these areas will be closer to the passing disturbance. Overall, the day will be showery under overcast skies. Temperatures won`t rise too much with highs only in the low 50s. Easterly flow will persist through the day with gusts upwards of 20 - 25 mph, especially closer to the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As the disturbance continues to move south of the area into tonight, showers mainly over the western portion of the area will begin to push out to the south. By sunrise on Tuesday, the showers are expected to completely exit the area. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s and low 40s. By Tuesday, some mid-level ridging takes place over the region allowing for a brief period of weak high pressure to build into the area. This should allow for conditions to remain fairly dry much of the day on Tuesday with skies being mostly sunny to partly cloudy into the afternoon. Highs will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. Skies will remain partly cloudy for the beginning of Tuesday night but clouds increase in coverage overnight as another mid-level disturbance approaches from the NW. Most of the night however should remain dry. Lows will be in the low to middle 40s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... There have been some notable changes/trends in the modeling today. The next upr trof, currently over ern MT, slowly approaches the area for the end of the week. With a series of 3 h5 lows set up along roughly the same latitude, slow progress seems realistic. The h5 setup allows for the development of low pres invof the cwa. This sfc low reflection would also be slow moving, and the latest data indicates impacts Thu and Fri. This notion of a slow moving low is not new, as it was in the modeling a few days ago. With the 12Z GFS supporting the 00Z ECMWF, confidence is growing in the scenario. Mainly a rain event, although if everything comes together perfectly, some wet snow will be possible at times across the interior. The NBM was used for pops, but temps were dropped a few degrees blw the NBM. Likely dry on Sat if the timing of the systems holds, then perhaps some shwrs possible on Sun ahead of the next upr low, or remnants thereof. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A warm front across southern Pennsylvania into the Delmarva remains south and west of the terminals into Monday. High pressure builds in tonight. VFR to MVFR conditions this morning, becoming MVFR to IFR late in the day and tonight. Conditions improve late tonight. Easterly winds 5-15 kt. There may be occasional gusts to 20 kt. The afternoon KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR haze potential forecast is RED, which implies slant range visibility less than 4SM outside of cloud. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely due to uncertainty in timing of flight category changes. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.... .Monday night...IFR in the evening with showers, improving to VFR by Tues AM push. .Tuesday...VFR. .Wednesday...VFR, a chance of MVFR late in the day with showers. .Thursday-Friday...MVFR to IFR with a chance of rain. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... SCA conditions will continue on all waters through early afternoon. Thereafter, winds will diminish to below SCA criteria. Waves on the ocean waters are expected to be 5 to 7 ft through this morning, then slowly diminish this afternoon, but should remain above 5 ft through tonight. Therefore, the SCA on the ocean waters was extended through 8 am Tuesday, and may need to be extended through Tuesday morning as 5 ft seas look to continue until then. Thereafter, winds and waves will remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low pressure may impact the waters towards the end of the week, with at least SCA winds and seas. && .HYDROLOGY... Generally speaking an additional 0.25"-0.75" of rainfall is possible through tonight. No hydrologic impacts are expected Tue-Sat. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tides will be running high astronomically, through tonight, with a new moon phase. With an increased and persistent onshore flow, there is the chance that a few locations for the Western Sound Shore in CT and the more western south shore bays will approach, or touch, their minor coastal flood benchmarks with the high tide cycles today and tonight. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ331- 335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ332- 340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/MW NEAR TERM...MW SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JP MARINE...JMC/JP HYDROLOGY...MW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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