Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 272019 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 319 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A series of upper level disturbances move across the region through Tuesday night. A cold front will also pass through the region Tuesday evening. High pressure will then gradually build through the end of the week. Low pressure may pass just offshore this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Upper low over southeast Canada will remain nearly stationary tonight. The cyclonic flow around the upper low will send a 500 mb vort max across the region this evening. Mostly cloudy to overcast sky conditions should gradually trend to partly cloudy overnight once the shortwave shifts to the east. There could be an isolated flurry or sprinkle this evening. Have left out of the forecast due to dry low level moisture profiles. Temperatures initially will be slow to fall due to the cloud cover, but should steadily drop overnight once clouds clear. Lows will range from the upper 20s inland to the lower 30s at the coast. These values are 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The upper low slowly moves towards the North Atlantic within a larger mean upper trough over the Canadian Maritimes. Another 500 mb vort max/shortwave will swing southward towards the local area during the day on Tuesday. This shortwave will send a cold front through the region late in the day. The energy and shortwave should move through the region in the evening. The day should start out mostly clear to partly cloudy and then clouds increase in the afternoon as the shortwave nears. No precipitation is expected with the cold front passage. Highs on Tuesday will continue above normal for this time of year in the lower and middle 40s. The cold front and shortwave move offshore Tuesday night with high pressure building to the west. Clearing skies are anticipated and cooler air advects into the area under NW flow. Lows should be closer to normal in the lower and middle 20s for most locations except NYC where temperatures fall to near 30 degrees. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will keep dry conditions across the region through the end of the week with seasonably chilly conditions. Expect highs in the 30s or lower 40s through this period and overnight lows in the teens and 20s. There is the potential for a coastal low to impact the region next weekend. Models are still struggling to key in on the track of this low, therefore will continue to carry chance POPs for Saturday and Sunday. We will continue to closely monitor trends in the guidance as we get closer to the event. Temperatures during the weekend will be in the 40s with lows in the upper 20s to low to mid 30s. Dry conditions are expected at the start of the week. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will be slow to work east over the next couple of days, while a large area of high pressure gradually builds in from the west. This will keep the area under a W- NW flow. VFR. West winds at 10-15 kt will diminish and shift to the NW tonight. An occasional gust to around 20 kt is possible through 00Z, then gusts return Tuesday morning, again around 20 kt. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday afternoon...VFR. NW winds G20kt. .Wednesday through Friday...VFR. .Saturday...MVFR or lower possible in rain or snow. && .MARINE... Ocean seas have been running lower today than previously forecast west of Moriches Inlet. Winds are also below 25 kt. Therefore, the small craft advisory has been cancelled on the waters west of Moriches Inlet. Marginal SCA winds and seas 5-6 ft continue on the waters east of Moriches Inlet. These conditions should continue into the evening. Have adjusted the end time of the Advisory and it now expires at 03z. Sub-SCA conditions are then expected all waters through Friday. The next chance of SCA conditions should be over the weekend with the potential of a coastal low impacting the waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the end of the week. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still operating at reduced power. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...FEB MARINE...Fig/DS HYDROLOGY...Fig/DS EQUIPMENT...

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