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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 272019
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
319 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of upper level disturbances move across the region through
Tuesday night. A cold front will also pass through the region
Tuesday evening. High pressure will then gradually build through
the end of the week. Low pressure may pass just offshore this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Upper low over southeast Canada will remain nearly stationary
tonight. The cyclonic flow around the upper low will send a 500 mb
vort max across the region this evening. Mostly cloudy to overcast
sky conditions should gradually trend to partly cloudy overnight
once the shortwave shifts to the east. There could be an isolated
flurry or sprinkle this evening. Have left out of the forecast due
to dry low level moisture profiles.

Temperatures initially will be slow to fall due to the cloud cover,
but should steadily drop overnight once clouds clear. Lows will
range from the upper 20s inland to the lower 30s at the coast. These
values are 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low slowly moves towards the North Atlantic within a
larger mean upper trough over the Canadian Maritimes. Another
500 mb vort max/shortwave will swing southward towards the local
area during the day on Tuesday. This shortwave will send a cold
front through the region late in the day. The energy and
shortwave should move through the region in the evening. The day
should start out mostly clear to partly cloudy and then clouds
increase in the afternoon as the shortwave nears. No
precipitation is expected with the cold front passage. Highs on
Tuesday will continue above normal for this time of year in the
lower and middle 40s.

The cold front and shortwave move offshore Tuesday night with high
pressure building to the west. Clearing skies are anticipated and
cooler air advects into the area under NW flow. Lows should be
closer to normal in the lower and middle 20s for most locations
except NYC where temperatures fall to near 30 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will keep dry conditions across the region through the
end of the week with seasonably chilly conditions. Expect highs in
the 30s or lower 40s through this period and overnight lows in the
teens and 20s.

There is the potential for a coastal low to impact the region next
weekend. Models are still struggling to key in on the track of this
low, therefore will continue to carry chance POPs for Saturday and
Sunday. We will continue to closely monitor trends in the guidance
as we get closer to the event. Temperatures during the weekend will
be in the 40s with lows in the upper 20s to low to mid 30s. Dry
conditions are expected at the start of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will be slow to work east
over the next couple of days, while a large area of high pressure
gradually builds in from the west. This will keep the area under a W-
NW flow.

VFR.

West winds at 10-15 kt will diminish and shift to the NW tonight. An
occasional gust to around 20 kt is possible through 00Z, then gusts
return Tuesday morning, again around 20 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday afternoon...VFR. NW winds G20kt.
.Wednesday through Friday...VFR.
.Saturday...MVFR or lower possible in rain or snow.

&&

.MARINE...
Ocean seas have been running lower today than previously forecast
west of Moriches Inlet. Winds are also below 25 kt. Therefore, the
small craft advisory has been cancelled on the waters west of
Moriches Inlet. Marginal SCA winds and seas 5-6 ft continue on the
waters east of Moriches Inlet. These conditions should continue into
the evening. Have adjusted the end time of the Advisory and it now
expires at 03z.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected all waters through Friday. The
next chance of SCA conditions should be over the weekend with
the potential of a coastal low impacting the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the end of the
week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still
operating at reduced power.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...Fig/DS
HYDROLOGY...Fig/DS
EQUIPMENT...