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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 260811
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
411 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure will continue ridging across the area
through Thursday. A slow moving cold front approaches Friday and
moves through Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some fog remains across the area this mrng. Obs indicate patchy
dense at the most, so have gone with that wording in the fcst
and issued an SPS. It is possible that the moisture is too deep
attm to get widespread dense per the model time heights.

The fog and stratus burns off gradually today. A model consensus
was used for burnoff time, but this is always tricky especially
near the coast. The stlt fog product shows extensive fog over
the ocean. It is entirely possible that a fog bank sets out
there today, possibly even hugging the Long Island coast based
on the sly llvl flow.

The onshore flow will limit the potential warmth today, with
highs ranging from the lwr 80s in the nwrn interior to upr 60s
along the oceanfront. The NBM was followed with some tweaks,
particularly invof Montauk where the numbers seemed too low
based on the MOS. If the fog hangs in however this will be a
major bust as temps could struggle to even get to 60.

There is a moderate rip current risk today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
More fog is expected tngt. There appears to be more dry air
aloft which could tip the scales towards more widespread dense.
Patchy dense has been included in the fcst for now. A similar
burnoff challenge is expected for Wed, and to account for the
uncertainty a model blend was used. For temps, went closer to a
MAV/MET blend which brought the n shore of Long Island up and
the sern CT coast down. Elsewhere it was very similar to the
NBM. The NBM was used for the overnight temps with some manual
adjustments.

There is a moderate rip current risk for Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The core of the upper ridge will begin to break down on
Thursday and shift over the Western Atlantic. However, the
surface ridge looks to remain in tact, which will likely keep
much of the region dry through Thursday. Patchy fog and low
stratus are also likely Thu morning with a continued onshore
flow and warm air moving over ocean temperatures in the lower
50s. Any stratus and fog likely diminish with daytime heating,
but it could linger near the coast. The ridging will boost
temperatures away from the immediate coast into the upper 70s to
near 80 Thursday. Temperatures closer to the coast will be held
down in the lower to middle 70s and some places more exposed to
the onshore flow could stay in the 60s. Temperatures could also
be held down if stratus and/or fog hang on longer. There could
be a few showers that traverse around the periphery of the ridge
as it breaks down Thursday, mainly N and W of NYC.

The upper ridge continues to break down Thursday night into Friday
with a more significant upper short wave trough digging into the
Great Lakes and southeast. There may be some vort energy traversing
around the ridge from the southeast Thursday night into Friday
morning which could bring some higher probability of showers.
Otherwise, the main area of forcing will be with the shortwave and
its associated cold front, which models have been slowing down over
the last several runs. There may be a prefrontal trough developing
to our NW Friday with some enhanced convection, but the highest
probabilities for showers and possible thunderstorms may occur
Friday night into the first half of Saturday with the actual cold
front. Forecaster confidence is low regarding the timing of the
front, so have continued to go with chance probabilities. Have
increased them on Saturday due to the trend for a slower frontal
passage.

Conditions should improve late Saturday into Saturday night as the
upper trough moves over the Eastern States. High pressure builds
down out of Southern Canada for Sunday into early next week with dry
conditions expected.

Conditions will become increasingly more humid into the end of
the week. The timing of the cold front will ultimately determine
how warm temperatures reach Friday into Saturday. Highs should
remain cooler near the immediate coast, in the lower to middle
70s, with temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s away from
the coast. Temperatures trend cooler and possibly below normal
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Offshore high pressure will continue to ridge across the area
the next several days. This will keep the terminals under a
weak, mainly moist onshore flow.

Widespread LIFR/VLIFR conditions overnight with what looks to be
a quicker improvement to VFR later this morning. Still though,
there remains some uncertainty with how quickly conditions
improve. Have leaned toward a more optimistic solution based on
the shallow nature of moisture and time of year. Then a potential
repeat Tuesday night with not much change in the airmass.

Winds overall light and variable, then calm overnight. Winds
then become E-SE in the morning, and then more southerly in the
afternoon at 5 to 10 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Wednesday-Thursday...VFR. Chance IFR with areas of fog during
the overnights into early morning hours each day.
.Thursday night-Saturday...MVFR possible. A Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of dense fog can be expected thru this mrng. There is a
chance the fog could persist all day, especially on the ocean.
Additional fog development is likely tngt into Wed. Winds and
seas however will remain blw sca lvls thru Wed.

High pressure over the Western Atlantic will keep winds and seas
below SCA levels Thursday. More fog is possible Wed ngt and
Thursday morning. Winds increase ahead of a cold front on Friday
and could come close to 25 kt on the ocean. Ocean seas may also
build to around 5 ft. Winds should gradually weaken Friday
night into Saturday, but 5 ft ocean seas may persist into the
first half of the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant hydrologic impacts are expected through Thursday.
Showers and thunderstorms are are possible Friday into Saturday with
a chance for minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing
its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ330-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$