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000
FXUS61 KOKX 162017
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
317 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues to move up the coast into the Canadian
Maritimes through tonight. High pressure then builds across the
area into the weekend. Weak low pressure passes through late
Sunday through Monday. High pressure then builds in Tuesday
through the Thanksgiving holiday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main issue for the evening will be gusty winds and cold air
advection across the area in the wake of the departing low
pressure system. Temperatures this afternoon/evening are around
10 degrees below climatological normals. Convergent flow aloft
will allow high pressure to build eastward, gradually allowing a
strengthening subsidence inversion that will decrease wind gusts
and cloud cover overnight, leading to favorable radiational
cooling conditions at many locales. Depending on how quickly
gusts diminish across eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut,
temperatures may be colder than forecast. In general, temperatures
will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s - 5 to 10 degrees below
normal for time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Generally zonal flow aloft persists through Saturday into night,
with surface high pressure building into the area. Little in
terms of sensible weather will exist, though depending on the
overall strength of winds into the early portion of Saturday,
it`s possible a few lake effect flurries could reach the lower
Hudson Valley. Otherwise dry and sunny conditions will prevail,
with temperatures remaining below climatological normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term will be a relatively tranquil period as western
ridging and eastern troughing slowly progresses east. High pressure
will sit over the eastern seaboard on Sunday with a weak wave
rotating through an upper trough Sunday night into Monday. This will
bring a chance of showers to the region. However, with a cold air
mass in place, a few light snow showers may for the interior are
possible. Timing, placement and strength of this wave still remains
uncertain so have kept probabilities at chance and slight chance
into Monday.

The base of the 500 mb trough moves through Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Have kept the forecast dry, but it is not out of the question
for a snow or rain shower to occur as the trough axis passes.

High pressure then builds for midweek and will continue through the
Thanksgiving holiday.

Temperatures through the long term will remain below average with
the coldest day being on Wednesday. Temperatures then moderate
towards the end of the week, but still remaining below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure quickly pulls away to the northeast.

VFR through the TAF period.

Northwest winds will continue this evening with wind speeds around
15-20 kt and gusts near 25kt. A few higher gusts will be possible at
the coastal terminals. Wind speeds and gusts will continue to
gradually diminish overnight after 04z.

A few gusts are possible Saturday midday but with the wind
gradient weaker they should be less frequent.


     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 25-30kt and mainly left of
310 magnetic. Winds will gradually subside through the evening
and overnight.

KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 20-25kt and mainly left of
310 magnetic. Winds will gradually subside through the evening
and overnight.

KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 20-25kt and mainly left of
310 magnetic. Winds will gradually subside through the evening
and overnight.

KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 20-25kt and mainly left of
310 magnetic. Winds will gradually subside through the evening
and overnight.

KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 30kt. Winds will
gradually subside through the evening and overnight.

KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 30kt. Winds will
gradually subside through the evening and overnight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Saturday-Sunday...VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible Friday
night.
.Sunday night-Monday...MVFR or lower possible in possible rain
or wintry mix. NW winds G15-20KT Monday.
.Tuesday...VFR.
.Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale warnings remain in effect through the remainder of today,
as flow remains strong and gusty behind the departing low
pressure system. Overnight, high pressure will begin to build
into the area, with subsidence allowing wind gusts to gradually
taper off. Ocean seas will be slower to respond, remaining at
least SCA levels through tonight, then gradually subsiding from
west to east through Saturday. Winds and seas then remain below
advisory levels into Saturday through Friday as only weak waves
are expected to pass through and high pressure remains in control
most of the time.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected through Friday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures noted with the passage of a strong coastal low
are expected to gradually subside as winds decrease through the
night. Although tidal departures remain around 1 ft for some
locals this afternoon, water levels are expected to remain below
flood thresholds for the remainder of today and tonight.

High surf of around 6-8 ft along with any lingering elevated
water levels may result in beach erosion with localized minor
dune erosion. Along western LI Sound, 3 to 5 ft of surf may
cause some splashover seawalls and exacerbate any lingering
localized coastal flooding along shoreline areas.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CB/MD
NEAR TERM...MD
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...MD
HYDROLOGY...CB/MD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...