Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 162017 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 317 PM EST Fri Nov 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure continues to move up the coast into the Canadian Maritimes through tonight. High pressure then builds across the area into the weekend. Weak low pressure passes through late Sunday through Monday. High pressure then builds in Tuesday through the Thanksgiving holiday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Main issue for the evening will be gusty winds and cold air advection across the area in the wake of the departing low pressure system. Temperatures this afternoon/evening are around 10 degrees below climatological normals. Convergent flow aloft will allow high pressure to build eastward, gradually allowing a strengthening subsidence inversion that will decrease wind gusts and cloud cover overnight, leading to favorable radiational cooling conditions at many locales. Depending on how quickly gusts diminish across eastern Long Island and eastern Connecticut, temperatures may be colder than forecast. In general, temperatures will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s - 5 to 10 degrees below normal for time of year. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Generally zonal flow aloft persists through Saturday into night, with surface high pressure building into the area. Little in terms of sensible weather will exist, though depending on the overall strength of winds into the early portion of Saturday, it`s possible a few lake effect flurries could reach the lower Hudson Valley. Otherwise dry and sunny conditions will prevail, with temperatures remaining below climatological normals. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The long term will be a relatively tranquil period as western ridging and eastern troughing slowly progresses east. High pressure will sit over the eastern seaboard on Sunday with a weak wave rotating through an upper trough Sunday night into Monday. This will bring a chance of showers to the region. However, with a cold air mass in place, a few light snow showers may for the interior are possible. Timing, placement and strength of this wave still remains uncertain so have kept probabilities at chance and slight chance into Monday. The base of the 500 mb trough moves through Tuesday and Tuesday night. Have kept the forecast dry, but it is not out of the question for a snow or rain shower to occur as the trough axis passes. High pressure then builds for midweek and will continue through the Thanksgiving holiday. Temperatures through the long term will remain below average with the coldest day being on Wednesday. Temperatures then moderate towards the end of the week, but still remaining below normal. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low pressure quickly pulls away to the northeast. VFR through the TAF period. Northwest winds will continue this evening with wind speeds around 15-20 kt and gusts near 25kt. A few higher gusts will be possible at the coastal terminals. Wind speeds and gusts will continue to gradually diminish overnight after 04z. A few gusts are possible Saturday midday but with the wind gradient weaker they should be less frequent. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 25-30kt and mainly left of 310 magnetic. Winds will gradually subside through the evening and overnight. KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 20-25kt and mainly left of 310 magnetic. Winds will gradually subside through the evening and overnight. KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 20-25kt and mainly left of 310 magnetic. Winds will gradually subside through the evening and overnight. KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional gusts 20-25kt and mainly left of 310 magnetic. Winds will gradually subside through the evening and overnight. KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 30kt. Winds will gradually subside through the evening and overnight. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional gusts up to 30kt. Winds will gradually subside through the evening and overnight. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday-Sunday...VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible Friday night. .Sunday night-Monday...MVFR or lower possible in possible rain or wintry mix. NW winds G15-20KT Monday. .Tuesday...VFR. .Wednesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Gale warnings remain in effect through the remainder of today, as flow remains strong and gusty behind the departing low pressure system. Overnight, high pressure will begin to build into the area, with subsidence allowing wind gusts to gradually taper off. Ocean seas will be slower to respond, remaining at least SCA levels through tonight, then gradually subsiding from west to east through Saturday. Winds and seas then remain below advisory levels into Saturday through Friday as only weak waves are expected to pass through and high pressure remains in control most of the time. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are expected through Friday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal departures noted with the passage of a strong coastal low are expected to gradually subside as winds decrease through the night. Although tidal departures remain around 1 ft for some locals this afternoon, water levels are expected to remain below flood thresholds for the remainder of today and tonight. High surf of around 6-8 ft along with any lingering elevated water levels may result in beach erosion with localized minor dune erosion. Along western LI Sound, 3 to 5 ft of surf may cause some splashover seawalls and exacerbate any lingering localized coastal flooding along shoreline areas. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ330-335-338- 340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CB/MD NEAR TERM...MD SHORT TERM...MD LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...IRD MARINE...MD HYDROLOGY...CB/MD TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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