-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
270
FXUS61 KOKX 140019
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
819 PM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
A Heat Advisory has been extended to all of western Suffolk
county for Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hot and humid conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Seasonable warmth returns late this week into the weekend. A
frontal system brings our next chance for showers and thunderstorms
this weekend.

3) Brief minor tidal flooding expected around the times of high tide
this evening. A High risk of rip currents is possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening (see marine discussion).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Heights will build across the region as a 600 dm high (+3SD) at 500
mb expands east. This will be short-lived but not before plus 20C
air at 85h over the Northern Plains and and upper Midwest spills
into the area Tuesday afternoon and night. Subsidence and
compressional warming will result in a capped airmass with plenty of
sun as the highest temperatures will be achieved on Wednesday. Most
locations Wednesday will get into the 90s, possibly a 100 in a few
spots.

This combined with dew points well into the 60s will produce heat
indices of 95 to 100 across most of the area for Tuesday and closer
to around 100 for most of the area on Wednesday. Thus, a heat
advisory has been issued for Tuesday and Wednesday for all but
Suffolk county on LI and coastal Middlesex and New London Counties
in CT. The heat index in these locations in CT anticipated to
be below 100 on Wednesday, so no Heat Advisory has been extended
there. However, widespread 100+ heat indices are expected across
western Suffolk county on Wednesday, so a single day Heat
Advisory is issued for there.

Heights will begin to very slowly lower late Tuesday night into
Wednesday as a large low pressure system works across eastern
Canada. This will result in a gusty SW flow Tuesday afternoon/eve
with gusts up to 30 mph, highest at the coast. Winds do weaken some
Tuesday night into Wednesday and become more westerly. The west flow
will allow the hot and humid conditions to spread all the way to
eastern areas as well as the immediate coast as the marine influence
is held in check. A few locations Wednesday will be close to record
highs. See climate section below

During this time, the airmass will be strongly capped and dry. This
will hinder convective development. However, a weak cold front
Wednesday evening/night might interact with just enough moisture to
break the cap with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Drier and slightly cooler air on Thursday should keep heat indices
below advisory criteria. It will still be about 5 to 10 degrees
above normal.

As for the temperature forecast Tuesday and Wednesday, the NBM was
not used, as it was unrealistically high in many coastal
locations. Mainly a blend of CONSShort, CONSAll, and some
SuperBlend were used for highs the next few days. These are in-
house model blends.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
The region will continue to remain between an upper level Canadian
trough to the northeast and an upper level ridge to the southwest
through late week into the weekend. However, heights aloft overall
will be lower, with several weak shortwaves passing to our north
during this time.

This will primarily result in temperatures closer to seasonal
averages and more passing cloud cover. A frontal system will
approach from the Great Lakes this weekend bringing chance to likely
POPs back into the forecast.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
High astronomical tides due to the upcoming new moon on July 14 will
once again bring water levels in the most vulnerable coastal
locations to around or just above minor coastal flood benchmarks.
The locations that are most susceptible are the more vulnerable
locales of coastal Fairfield and Westchester, and along the southern
bays of Nassau and Queens.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure remains in place through Tuesday.

VFR.

S/SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt persist into early this
evening, subsiding to 5-10 kt overnight. Winds veer more W/SW
Tuesday morning, and speeds increase back to 10-15 kt with gusts
20-25 kt Tuesday afternoon.

Cigs aoa 5 kft dissipate early this evening, with just some high
cirrus then expected through the remainder of the TAF period.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts to 20 kt possible thru 2Z this evening.

Occasional gust above 25 kt possible late Tue afternoon,
especially at KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: VFR. WSW 10-15 kt.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. W/SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 25-30 kt.
A slight chance of SHRA/TSRA late Wed.

Thursday and Friday: VFR. W/NW winds.

Saturday: VFR with chance SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Sub-SCA conditions until midday/afternoon Tuesday.

A SCA has been issued for the ocean waters Tuesday afternoon and
night into a part of Wednesday due to a SW flow increasing to around
20 kt with gusts 25-30kt. Ocean seas will build to 4-7 ft, highest
east. S Shore Bays, Peconic/Gardiner Bays and the LI Sound Entrance
will carry a SCA for winds Tue afternoon into a part of Tue night.

Sub-SCA conditions are then expected on all waters Wed night through
Fri.

Rip Currents:

The rip current risk should start at moderate on Tue, but as SW
winds increase to 15-20 kt wind waves will likely build to 3-5 ft by
late day. This would increase the rip risk to high by late day just
as most lifeguards and beach patrols finish routine daily
operations. The higher risk, once again enhanced by greater than
usual tidal fluctuations due to the upcoming new moon.

Wednesday looks to be another high risk day for rip currents,
especially the morning into midday until winds become more WSW.
Eastern locations may hold onto the risk into the afternoon as
wind waves remain elevated at 3-5ft through the afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

July 15:
KEWR: 104/1995
KBDR: 97/1995
KNYC: 102/1995
KLGA: 103/1995
KJFK: 99/1983
KISP: 97/1995


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 15:
KEWR: 82/1995
KBDR: 76/2013
KNYC: 84/1995
KLGA: 83/1995
KJFK: 79/1995
KISP: 77/1995

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for
     CTZ005>010.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for
     NYZ067>075-176>179.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
     High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday
     evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ078-080.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 9 PM EDT Wednesday for
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
     Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ004-
     006-103>108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BR