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000
FXUS61 KOKX 161443
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1043 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front will approaches and passes through the
area late this afternoon into tonight. The front remains close
to the region through much of the upcoming week. Several waves
of low pressure may move along the front, bringing periods of
unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Most of the showers have ended across the region with just a
chance of showers remaining across portions of the lower Hudson
Valley this morning as a weakening wave passes through the
region. Most of the area likely remain dry until this afternoon
as another wave and convectively induced vort max across the
Ohio Valley this morning tracks eastward in the near zonal
flow. Currently, most of the precipitation will likely move
across the southern portions of the region, and may even pass
farther to the south late this afternoon into this evening. With
the uncertainty of the areal extent and timing of the
precipitation have lowered probabilities to likely and chance.
With limited surface and elevated CAPE, and marginal instability
have lowered the chances for thunder to slight chance. And kept
with the current thinking that convection will not continue too
far east into southeastern Connecticut and eastern Long Island
where the is even more limited CAPE and instability. Also
limited the timing from around 18Z to 23Z. The Storm Prediction
Center has the southwestern portion of the forecast area in a
Marginal Risk.

There is a High Risk for rip currents at the ocean beaches
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A lull in the precipitation is possible during the day on Monday,
before additional showers and thunderstorms potentially develop
Monday evening and night. Confidence is low due to a lack of model
agreement and consistency. The placement of a residual frontal
boundary will determine where the best focus for the rainfall will
be. The 00z consensus is that the front remains over the ocean
during the day, then comes back northward overnight. A model blend
was used for precipitation chances. Temperatures are likely to warm
a few degrees with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s, and lows
in the 60s. There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The main story of the long term continues to surround a nearly
stationary frontal boundary that will bring periods of unsettled
weather. Confidence in the timing, duration, and any impacts
from showers and possible storms still remains low, especially
from Monday night through the end of the week.

The flow around the base of an upper low/trough across
southeast Canada will send several shortwaves/disturbance across
the Tri- State, but the timing of these is still not well
resolved by the 12z model guidance. These shortwaves in the flow
are likely convectively induced and are difficult for models to
resolve past 48 hours. Another factor of uncertainty is how
much if any of these waves force the frontal boundary further
south causing lower precipitation chances.

The next potential shortwave and frontal wave may occur into
Tuesday. Due to model differences and uncertainty in the
strength, placement, and timing of this feature, have capped
PoPs at 50 percent on Tuesday. Instability looks weak, but have
included mention of a slight chance of thunder.

Another possible shortwave and frontal wave may occur on
Wednesday. However, the ECMWF is much flatter and weaker
compared to the GFS. Interestingly, the deterministic models are
progging a more well defined shortwave trough and frontal wave
for late Thursday into potentially Friday. This shortwave could
leave behind ridging into early next weekend. Will continue to
show chance PoPs for mainly showers during much of this time
period due to recent model performance in this pattern.

Temperatures through the long term will average near to slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak cold front will slowly move across the terminals this
afternoon and evening.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. Showers develop this
afternoon north and west of NYC terminals and then move across
21-00z time frame. A thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, but
coverage is uncertain so have gone with a VCTS. The activity
should weaken a bit as it moves across Long Island and southern
Connecticut terminals after 23z.

S-SW winds 10-15 kt through the day with gusts 18-23 kt this
afternoon. Winds shift towards the W this evening and then NW
tonight as the front settles to the south.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Mon-Thu...There will be chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms each day, with the better chances Tue and Wed.
VFR, becoming MVFR Monday night. IFR possible Tue and Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas forecast currently on track. Timing of weather
for this afternoon through tonight was adjusted.

Otherwise, SCA conds expected today and tonight on the ocean
waters, but there may be occasional gusts up to 25 kt along the
South Shore Bays this afternoon. Winds subside tonight but seas
will remain elevated on the ocean with a swell. Sub-SCA conds
then follow through the rest of the forecast period with a
frontal boundary stalled near the waters and a relatively weak
pressure gradient. Waves of low pressure will move along this
boundary, but their timing and placement are uncertain. One of
these waves could increase winds on the waters, but overall,
conditions should stay below SCA levels into Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A frontal boundary approaches today and then stalls over the
region through much of next week. Basin average rainfall will
total around 1/4 to 1/2 inch through late tonight, with locally
higher amounts possible across the lower Hudson Valley into
northeastern New Jersey, and metropolitan New York. At this time
significant hydrologic impacts are not expected.

Waves of low pressure moving along a nearly stationary frontal
boundary this week could produce periods of moderate to heavy
downpours. The timing, amounts, and any hydrologic impacts
remain uncertain.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...19
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC/DS
MARINE...JC/19
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...