Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 170542 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 142 AM EDT Sun Oct 17 2021 .SYNOPSIS... On the heels of a cold frontal passage, high pressure over the mid section of the country will be slow to build eastward through the middle of the week. Another cold frontal passage is possible at the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Cold front now east of the area with post-frontal showers across eastern LI/SE CT. Back edge of rain should clear these area in the next 2 to 3 hours. Conditions dry out overnight with gusty NW winds bringing in the coolest airmass of the early fall season. Lows falling to near seasonable by Sunday morning with upper 40s far interior, to the lower and mid 50s at the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Deep troughing under the negatively tilting upper trough pivoting through the Northeast US Sunday into Sunday Night. Afternoon some morning breaks of sun, steep daytime lapse rates with the cold pool aloft and deep cyclonic flow will result in considerable afternoon cloudiness, and isolated to scattered afternoon showers and/or sprinkles. Gutsy W-NW winds to 20-30 mph will prevail on Sunday, relaxing Sunday Night. A chilly feel to the day with highs near seasonable in the lower to mid 60s, but with limited sunshine and breeze. Clearing skies and subsiding winds Sunday Night with loss of diurnal instability. Appears to be enough mixing to keep temps near seasonable, around 50 for city/coast, and 40s Interior. Any interior valley areas that are able to decouple could drop into the 30s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The models have been relatively consistent the last few days and no big changes to the pattern are expected in the long term. The cold pool aloft along with some additional moisture from the Great Lakes will result in increasing high based low clouds on Mon with the chance for a few sprinkles or shwrs. NBM pops are still dry across the cwa, but inserted sprinkles into the fcst nonetheless. Also had to deviate from the NBM regarding cloud cover, as the model was producing mostly sunny skies. It will likely be mostly sunny to start, but the blossoming of the cu field should produce bkn-ovc skies by the aftn. The clouds should dissipate in the eve as the instability wanes. Good agreement model-wise Tue-Thu. The fcst has been kept dry and the NBM was used as high pres over the sern conus builds into the area. Chances for shwrs introduced Thu ngt and Fri as a frontal sys impacts the area. The fropa looks to be Fri per the 12Z GFS and ECMWF. The ECMWF isn`t as cold as the GFS behind the front, so there is some uncertainty wrt how cold it gets next weekend. Trended the fcst towards the colder MEX guidance however, as the output is still warmer than what would occur if the 12Z GFS verified, and the GFS has been persistent in modeling a quick shot of cold air into the region. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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A cold front east of the NYC metro terminals will pass east of Long Island and southern CT tonight. Back edge of MVFR cigs should move through KISP by 06-07Z, with VFR conditions expected thereafter. Gusts have ended for the most part, however occasional gusts are possible through 09Z, mainly for eastern terminals. NW Winds then increase to around 15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt late Sunday morning into the afternoon, with gusts ending around sunset. Winds should average left of 310 true, though may at times shift briefly to 310 true. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled AMD expected attm. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday night...VFR with diminishing winds. .Monday...VFR. W-NW winds G20kt possible into the evening. .Tuesday - Thursday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... SCA remains in effect only for the ocean waters, although there could be a few gusts up to 25 kt across the non-ocean waters overnight. Seas will gradually subside below 5 ft late tonight into early Sun morning. WNW flow will continue Mon and Tue. A sca may be needed, especially on the ocean. All waters expected to remain blw sca lvls Wed attm with high pres building in. Sly flow increases on Thu ahead of a cold front. A sca may be needed. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...JP MARINE...JMC/NV HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV CLIMATE...

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