Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 211829 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 229 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the region today and moves off the southern New England coast tonight. A warm front will lift through Tuesday afternoon followed by a cold front late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. High pressure returns behind the frontal passage and remains through Saturday. Another frontal system impacts the area on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Current forecast is on track, with only minor changes made to reflect current conditions. Light northerly winds across the area, giving way to afternoon seabreezes at the coast. Highs will generally range between mid and upper 70s, although a few 80 degree readings will be possible in metro NY/NJ. Humidity levels will be much lower than yesterday, making it more comfortable. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper ridge axis shifts to the east tonight as a shortwave trough over the Midwest approaches. Guidance is in good agreement that pcpn hold off until aft 12z Tue except perhaps in Orange county. Overrunning pattern strengthens as the day progresses and a warm front lifts into the area. Model soundings are indicating some weak elevated instability late Tue aftn through Tue eve, in addition to increasing PWATS (maxing out between 1.50 and 1.75 inches). Any tstms that develop have the potential to produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Warm front should lift through the area during the aftn and early eve as parent low tracks through New England, followed by a cold front Tue night into Wed morning. High temps are tricky on Tue and will depend on timing of the warm fropa. High pres returns behind the cold front with dry weather and a return to above normal temps on Wed. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure builds across the area Wednesday night and remains through Saturday, resulting in dry weather with above normal temperatures. A frontal system is then forecast to impact the region Saturday night into Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure moves off the coast of New England tonight. A warm front approaches Tuesday. VFR through tonight and Tuesday morning. The chances for MVFR increase Tuesday morning, becoming likely Tuesday afternoon as rain showers move in. Sea breeze expected across the region for all terminals except KSWF at 5-10 kt this afternoon. Winds decrease tonight to near 5 kt and become more easterly, returning to 5-10 kt Tuesday. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be delayed by 1-2 hrs from forecast. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be 1-2 hrs delayed from forecast. KHPN TAF Comments: Sea breeze timing could be delayed by an hour. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday afternoon/night...MVFR in any showers, possible IFR. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible. .Wednesday morning...A slight chance of showers with MVFR possible for most terminals. .Wednesday afternoon-Thursday night...VFR. .Friday-Friday night...VFR. SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through early evening. .Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure was building into the forecast waters from the west and a light northerly flow was across the waters. Ocean seas east of Fire Island Inlet have subsided to below 5 feet, so the SCA was cancelled. A weak surface pressure gradient force will continue into late in the week. The forecast waters will remain below SCA levels through Friday. With an increasing southwesterly flow Friday into Saturday, ocean seas may build to 5 feet or more late Friday night into Saturday. && .HYDROLOGY... Between 1/4 and 1/2 of basin avg QPF is expected with the frontal system Tue into Wed. Other than some isolated nuisance ponding with any heavy rain from tstms late Tue aftn/eve, no hydrologic impacts are expected through the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig NEAR TERM...Fig/Maloit/JP SHORT TERM...Fig LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...JM MARINE...Fig/Maloit HYDROLOGY...Fig

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