Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 070529 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 129 AM EDT Fri Oct 7 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure to the south will yield to a cold frontal passage Friday evening. High pressure will then build to the south this weekend. A weak front will move across on Monday, followed by strong high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday. A frontal system may begin to approach on Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Showers across eastern PA may briefly clip far NW portions of Orange County for the pre-dawn hours as a shortwave traverses the area. Mainly clouds move through the CWA over the next few hours, especially across north and northwest sections. Otherwise, it should remain dry across the CWA. Where cloud cover is not as persistent look for some patchy fog, but this looks to be more limited across the area for much of the night, especially north and west. Lows will be mainly in the 50s, to around 60 in the NYC metro. Thus, a fairly mild night for early October. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... A cold front approaches for late Friday and Friday evening. The system is moisture starved, so probabilities remain in the slight chance range. Most of the time period is dry, except near the front. However, there is a signal for some post-frontal pcpn late Friday night with the jet providing support. Favored areas are near the coasts with this. Still not much moisture to work with, so any amounts are expected to be light. Despite some mid and high cloud potential on Friday, will still call it mostly sunny based on the NBM output for now. The NBM was used for temperatures Friday, with some blending in of the MET and MAV used for Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Although a cold front will be well to the SE by this time, an upper trough to the west will have yet to pass through, with an approaching mid level vort max and right entrance region of an upper level jet streak. This could result in some morning sprinkles for Long Island if not farther north/west. As the trough weakens/shears out, a mostly sunny afternoon expected, with high temps in the upper 50s/lower 60s, about 5-10 degrees below average. Temps Sat night should be on the cool side as well, with 40s in most places closer to the coast, and mid/upper 30s across the interior and eastern Long Island. The pattern aloft will feature a longwave trough over eastern North America through at least Monday, with sfc high pressure sliding to the south. As the trough moves east for a short time going into mid next week, a weak, moisture-starved sfc front will move across Mon night. Can`t rule out showers north of the forecast area where better mid level trough dynamics are likely to be present. Our forecast should remain dry, while daytime temps also should moderate to near normal during this time frame. Heights rise aloft during mid week while sfc high pressure from the Great Lakes strengthens while moving into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. As a result high temps should rise to a few degrees above normal by Wed/Thu, with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s. An amplifying closed low over central Canada should send a cold front toward the area late in the week, with current timing of any chance PoP at the very end of the forecast period (Thu night). && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Weak high pressure builds offshore overnight as a cold front approaches. The front moves through Friday afternoon into the early evening. High pressure builds in behind the front Friday night. VFR. A brief sprinkle can not be ruled at KSWF overnight. There is a low chance for patchy fog outside the NYC terminals, and included a tempo at KBDR, KISP, and KGON for MVFR fog. However at KGON visibility may vary through the overnight, ranging from around 1 SM to P6SM. Winds light and variable to light SW overnight, become SW 5 to 10 kt in the morning, and increase to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts 15-20kt develop ahead of the cold front in the afternoon and continue in the NW flow following the cold frontal passage late afternoon/early evening. A few gusts may reach just over 20 kt. Gusts will end after 03Z Saturday, though there is some uncertainty with the end time. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Late Friday night through Saturday...VFR. NW winds G15-20 kt. .Sunday...VFR. W winds G15-20kt. .Monday and Tuesday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... Despite a cold frontal passage Fri evening, winds and seas should remain below SCA levels. That said, gusts over 20 in NW flow are likely on the ocean Sat night, and again in W flow Sunday afternoon/evening as seas build to just over 4 ft in a more favorable wind fetch, so either time frame may have to be watched for possible brief SCA conditions. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrological impacts expected. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG NEAR TERM...JE SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...BG AVIATION...MET MARINE...BG HYDROLOGY...BG

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