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054
FXUS61 KOKX 071253
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
753 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure gives way to an approaching cold front today that
will pass through Saturday morning. Weak high pressure briefly
follows before another low pressure system impacts the area
Sunday into Monday. High pressure will then build to the south
through the middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Frost Advisory will expire at 8 AM for portions of the area
where the growing season has yet to end. There are still healthy
dew point depressions which has allowed the airmass to radiate
well and even colder than previously forecast. However, this
could limit the frost coverage.

A fast flow nearly zonal flow of the southern branch of the
polar jet will send another fast moving frontal system across
the area tonight with a round of showers. Associated low
pressure over the upper Great Lakes today will lift up into
eastern Canada tonight, sending weak a cold front across the
area. Showers along and ahead of the front will move into the
Lower Hudson Valley this evening, then across the remainder of
the area through the night. Rainfall amounts remain on the
light side with a tenth or two expected, but there could be a
few pockets around a quarter inch or higher. Guidance has shown
a slight uptick. In addition, weak instability along the nose of
the LLJ this evening may produce an isolated thunderstorm
across eastern LI.

Southerly winds will quickly ramp up late this morning into the
early afternoon with a strengthening low-level jet ahead of the
frontal system. Based on the 00Z guidance vertical wind profiles,
nudged winds up a bit higher than the NBM. Expect gusts of 25
to 35 mph this afternoon, highest along the coast. These gusts
will then gradually diminish overnight as the cold front
approaches and moves across the area. Inland locations may
decouple while coastal locations will likely see gusts hold on
for a longer period of time.

High temperatures today will range form the mid 50s to lower
60s, which is a few degrees above normal. Lows tonight though
will be substantially warmer than the previous night in the
upper 40s to lower and mid 50s. This about 10 degrees above
normal.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Any lingering showers associated with a weak cold frontal
passage exit in the morning with clearing skies and a much
warmer day for Saturday. Highs will top out in the lower to mid
60s (5 to 8 degrees above normal).

Weak high pressure builds across the area through Saturday
night.

Attention will then shift to another storm system approaching
the area Sunday into Sunday night. Shortwave energy rotating
about the polar vortex near James Bay in eastern Canada will
interact with energy in the southern branch of the polar jet,
carving out a longwave trough over the eastern half of the
country by Sunday. This will send a surge of much colder air
southward behind developing low pressure over the Ohio Valley
into the Mid Atlantic states. As the area of low pressure lifts
northeast, it will drag a warm front through the area Sunday
evening, followed by a strong cold frontal passage overnight.
There are some small timing issues amongst the operational
global models at this time. Overrunning rains are forecast to
develop across the area Sunday with the best chance during the
afternoon into evening hours. This will then be followed by
showers associated with the actual cold front overnight.
Potential rainfall at this time looks to be in the half to one
inch range.

Temperatures will remain above normal during this time with lows
mainly in the 40s and highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points per NBM forecast with only minor adjustments:

* Rain will taper off on Monday as primary weakening low moves
  into eastern Canada, and a stronger secondary low develops to
  the east and moves through eastern New England.

* Colder expected Monday night through Tuesday night. Widespread sub
  freezing temps likely inland Monday night, with lows in the 30s
  even in NYC, and temps not getting out of the 40s on Tuesday.
  Lowest wind chills will be mostly in the 20s Monday night (with
  some teens in Orange County and the higher elevations elsewhere),
  and mid 20s to lower 30s Tuesday night.

* Mainly dry conditions expected from Mon night into mid week. There
  is the slight chance for some flurries or mixed rain/snow showers
  inland late Mon night.

* Slight moderation should occur during mid week after a warm
  front passes well to the north. Temperatures should still
  remain a little below normal.

* Much of the period will feature a brisk W-NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure over the area will move offshore through this
afternoon. A cold front will move across tonight.

VFR through this evening. Light rain and MVFR cond develop from
about 02Z-05Z, with MVFR cond following a couple of hours later
at most terminals. Cannot rule out IFR cigs at KGON late.

Light/variable winds become SSW-S and increase to around 15 kt
with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon. KJFK could see gusts 25-30
kt this afternoon. Winds start to diminish tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Onset time of gusts today may be off by 1-2 hours. KJFK could
briefly gust up to 30 kt this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: Chance of rain east of NYC metros early morning.
Becoming VFR. NW winds G20kt late morning/afternoon.

Sunday: Rain developing. MVFR cond expected, IFR possible. SE
winds G20kt in the afternoon.

Monday: Mainly VFR. NW-W winds G15-20kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
A strengthening southerly flow will bring a return to SCA
conditions this afternoon across all waters. Seas on the ocean
will build to 6 to 9 ft during this time. Marginal gale
conditions remain a possibility for about a 6-9 hour period on
the ocean waters from late this afternoon through the first half
of tonight. This is being addressed through the use of occasional
gusts up to 35 kt wording in the marine forecast (CWF) and
Marine Weather Message (MWW).

Winds and seas will subside late tonight into Saturday morning
with sub-SCA conditions expected on the non-ocean waters by
daybreak Saturday. However, lingering seas at or above 5 ft on
the ocean waters will linger at least through the morning hours
Saturday. High pressure then builds in through Saturday night.

Any sub-SCA conditions early Sunday morning will end as winds
and seas increase to above SCA thresholds on the ocean in the
afternoon. Winds may subside below 25 kt for most of the waters
into Monday, but elevated ocean seas should persist. Other
waters should remain below SCA thresholds through Mon.

Increasing wind gusts Mon night may result in widespread SCA
conditions on all waters through mid week. Gales are possible on
the ocean waters Mon night into Tue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal flood statement remains in effect for the mid morning
high tide cycle for S Nassau, as water levels may touch minor
flood benchmarks. Similar water levels may occur during the
Sunday late morning high tide cycle.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for CTZ009>012.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NYZ071-078>081.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NJZ104-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM EST Saturday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon EST Saturday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...