Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 140756 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 356 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move offshore on Wednesday. Low pressure approaches from the west late today into tonight. A coastal low will impact the area Thursday and Friday. Another low pressure system could impact our area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Ridge axis builds across the cwa today, then as heights fall this aftn, chances for shwrs to develop. Moisture transport vectors indicate a weak flow of moisture into the area thru tngt. The h5 low gets to about Lake Huron by 12Z Thu, so forcing is not strong thru tngt. Any rainfall therefore is expected to be mainly light today and tngt. Temps are progged to be mild today, with the NBM now suggesting many areas away from the coasts hitting 70. This is warmer than the MET and MAV, but was used in the fcst based on wly component llvl flow and adding a few degrees to yesterday`s highs. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... In response to the massive h5 low approaching from the w, low pres develops s of LI on Thu. The low is broad and weak Thu, but winds up a bit more Thu ngt. The models are in pretty good agreement with the low track Thu ngt, taking it thru the Cape and Islands by 12Z Fri. With the h85 low tracking across LI, the sfc low should stay n of the benchmark, supporting this consensus. This would tend to dryslot most of the area by late Thu ngt. It would also keep snow accums n as well. Followed WPC for QPF for the event, which is still around an inch and a half. Some rasn was added for interior portions of CT, as well as parts of the Lower Hudson Valley for Thu ngt. The NBM was used for temps Thu, but the fcst is weighted heavily towards the NAM 2m data for Thu ngt. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Lingering light rain is possible as the low heads northeast on Friday. Northerly flow will keep high temperatures well below seasonable, in the mid 40s to low 50s. Brief ridging aloft should keep the area mostly dry for the weekend before a shortwave brings a chance of some light rain on Monday. Some model disagreement remains with a system for early next week. There is potential for another coastal system to bring rain and gusty winds to our area. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weak high pressure remains in place into Wednesday afternoon. A complex frontal system moves into the region late Wednesday and Wednesday night. VFR through Wednesday afternoon, The becoming MVFR with light rain developing early Wednesday evening, and IFR toward the end of the forecast period. Winds south to southeast under 10 kt become southwest late overnight, with inland terminals light and variable. WNW to WSW winds pick up Wednesday morning before backing S to SE with sea breezes and increasing to around 10 kt. A SE flow under 10 kt is expected Wednesday night, however, there is uncertainty with the wind direction and will depend on low pressure and warm front positions. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments are expected through Wednesday afternoon. Amendments are likely as conditions lower and rain develops Wednesday evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.... .Late Wednesday night...IFR to LIFR with rain. .Thursday and Thursday night...Rain with IFR conditions. .Friday...MVFR to IFR with a chance of rain. .Saturday and Sunday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ && .MARINE... Winds and seas blw SCA lvls thru tngt. SCA conditions look likely for all waters Thursday afternoon through Friday morning with the ocean waters holding on to those conditions a bit longer. Expecting 25 to 30 knot winds with seas 5 to 7 feet. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected thru Tue. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.