Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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813 FXUS61 KOKX 202012 CCA AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service New York NY 412 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will pass to our south tonight. High pressure on Monday will then give way to a cold front and wave of low pressure Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will follow for Wednesday and Thursday, then another cold front will pass through on Friday. High pressure on Saturday and early Sunday should give way to another low pressure system later Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Light rain spreading across the area as a low pressure system tracks south of the region. Rain should be generally light and should taper off tonight with dry conditions returning after midnight. Temperatures tonight will be in the 40s with upper 30s well inland. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Dry conditions expected on Monday as high pressure builds across the area. Low clouds during the morning should break allowing for a mostly sunny day. Winds should be light with the high overhead. Temperatures on Monday will be in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 40s inland and upper 40s to low 50s along the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... On Tuesday, expecting no more than light rain at most for CT and Long Island, where low level ridging and mid level dry air (if not low level as sfc winds will be off the Atlantic) should hold longer, and a steadier rain NW of there, mainly in the afternoon as a frontal system approaches. Better dynamics aloft with the approaching mid level trough have trended far enough south for Tue night that a wave of low pressure now looks likely to develop along the approaching front. Resulting enhanced lift and destabilization, with fcst soundings showing elevated CAPE and K/TT indices near 30/50 respectively, suggest elevated thunder across Long Island/southern CT mainly overnight. High pressure should dominate through Fri, with a cold frontal approach daytime Fri and passage Fri night that could bring a chance of showers mainly inland. Siding more with ECMWF longer term, with sfc high pressure Sat into Sunday morning, then increasing chances of rain through the day on Sunday. Temps should be near normal with cloud cover and rain on Tue, then above normal by at least several degrees Wed-Fri. Slightly cooler than normal temps likely after cold fropa for next weekend. && .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure tracks south of the area tonight, and out to sea on Monday. Rain will continue to overspread the area this evening. Mainly MVFR is expected, with ceilings in the 2000-3000 ft range. The rain ends from NW to SE after 3-6Z, but MVFR ceilings are expected to remain most of the night. Improvement to VFR is expected mainly after 10- 12Z on Monday. Light winds, variable at times, trend to the ENE late this afternoon, and NE overnight. Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible late tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Rest of Monday...Periods of MVFR possible. .Tuesday...Showers likely with MVFR or lower conditions, especially late day and at night. .Wednesday-Thursday...VFR. .Friday...MVFR or lower with a chance of rain. && .MARINE... SCA conditions expected across ocean waters tonight as northeast winds increase along with building seas. SCA conds continue into Monday night as seas are expected to remain above SCA conditions. A SCA is in effect for the ocean for tonight and Monday. As for the non-ocean waters, there could be occasional gusts to 25 kt late tonight into early Monday morning for eastern LI Sound and the eastern Bays. Elevated ocean seas likely to persist into daytime Wed if not Wed evening. Should also see wind gusts over 25 kt on the ocean daytime Wed after a cold front and wave of low pressure pass. Minimal SCA conds may be possible very long term (Fri night) after another cold frontal passage.s && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through tonight with rain amounts up to around a quarter of an inch. Rainfall of 1/3 to 3/4 inch may be possible Tue into Tue night, with the higher amts either inland NW of NYC, or with tstms across Long Island/CT. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$

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