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000
FXUS61 KOKX 150316
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1116 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass offshore and drag a weak cold front
across the area overnight. High pressure builds in Monday
through Monday night, moving over the area on Tuesday. A slow
moving warm front then approaches from the southwest Wednesday
night into Thursday, followed by a cold front late in the week
as low pressure passes well to the northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Weak low pressure across southern New England will continue to
slide east, while its trailing cold front slowly slides
southeast of the region through Mon AM.

Initial dissipating convective line has passed southeast of the
area. This dissipating line pushed a NW 30 to 35 kt coldpool/gust
front through far SW portions of the area and pts south, while
just to the north in the trailing stratiform the 40-45 kt SW LLJ
aloft was channeled downward across far eastern portions of NE
NJ, northern portions of NYC and into W LI sound, where
widespread 40 to 50 mph gusts were reported.

In any case, gusty SW flow should gradually dissipate and veer
to the the west overnight as weak cold front sags across the
area and llj shunts offshore. Final line of convection across
eastern PA, ahead of cold front, should remain to the SW of the
region, but could glance far SW portions of the region with a
few showers and perhaps an isolated tstm with still some waning
weak instability aloft.

Otherwise, the cold front passes south of LI during the early
morning hours Monday with clearing skies. Lows will remain above
normal in the upper 40s to mid 50s, warmest across the NYC/NJ
metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure builds in from central Canada Monday as
the amplifying upper trough across eastern Canada during this
time will allow for some weak cold advection on Monday. Despite
this, downsloping winds will mean Monday will be the warmest
day with even coastal locations getting in on the action with
highs well into the 60s. The NYC/NJ metro is expected to get
into the middle 70s. Lows drop into the 40s to around 50 Monday
night with clear skies and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
*Key Messages*

*Unsettled conditions from mid to late week with daily shower
chances.

*Normal to slightly above normal temperatures midweek into next
weekend.

Overall not much change in the long term period.

High pressure remains in place Tuesday and Tuesday night with dry
weather expected. Temperatures will be somewhat mild with highs in
the 60s to lower 70s.

Unsettled conditions return mid and late week as a warm front slowly
approaches from the south on Wednesday. The warm front associated
with a low pressure in the middle of the country. Expect shower
chances to increase through the day as the front either slowly
approaches or stalls over the area. PWATS increase to over an inch,
however better forcing remains west of the region. Expecting mainly
light rain at this point. Latest forecast guidance indicating that
the area may not be as warm sectored as previous guidance indicated,
with the warm front remaining over or just south of the area. That
would limit any convective potential, and so will continue to keep
any thunder out of the forecast for now.

The chance for unsettled weather remains Friday into Saturday as
another quick moving frontal system may impact the area, with shower
chances remaining. There is some uncertainty with this second cold
front will limit POPs to just chance.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal for much of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weakening cold front slowly moves across the areas tonight
into Monday morning. Another cold front moves across Monday
evening.

VFR thru the period, with shower dissipating through 06z. A few
showers possible Mon Eve with cold frontal passage.

Low level wind shear with SW winds of near 50 kt near 1-2kft
for NYC and coastal terminals will come to and end

Gusty S/SW winds subside this evening, veer W/SW 5-10 kt after
midnight. Winds return back to a 270-290 true flow Monday
morning, increasing 12-15G20-25kt in the afternoon. Late day
S/SSW sea-breeze likely for JFK and ISP. Windshift to the NW
likely during Mon eve push.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusty S/SW winds and LLWS subsiding after 04z.

VFR and light W/NW winds for Mon AM push.

W gusts 20-25 kt likely Monday afternoon. Late day S seabreeze
likely at JFK. NW windshift likely during Mon eve push. Isolated
SHRA possible.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Mon night through Tue: NW gusts 15-20 kt in the evening. VFR.

Wed and Thu: MVFR or lower possible at times with potential for rain
showers, most likely in the Wed night into early Thu time period.
Easterly winds near 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt late Wed night
into Thu.

Fri: Chance of rain showers and MVFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCAs continue for the ocean waters into Monday, and for NY
Harbor, and the South Shore Bays into this evening.

Winds will weaken overnight as a cold pushes south of the area
and high pressure builds in tonight. SCA seas will linger on the
ocean into Monday. Winds across the central and eastern sound
waters are expected to largely remain below SCA criteria,
however occasional gusts to 25 kt are possible.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected on all waters Tuesday through
Wednesday. SCA conditions may then return to the ocean waters on
Thursday as a frontal system approaches.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns thought the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for ANZ338-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JP
NEAR TERM...BC/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/JP
HYDROLOGY...BC/JP