Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 210540 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 140 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds across the region into Monday evening. A weak frontal system affects the area from late Monday night into Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday and remains through Saturday. The next weather system will move across the region on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on track. Continued clearing as northern stream ridging approaches the area from the west overnight. Temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Sunny conditions Monday as high pressure builds across the region with a weak frontal system impacting the area late Monday night. This will result in some precipitation across the region with light QPF values. Highs on Monday will generally be in the mid to upper 70s, except lower 70s across south coasts with afternoon seabreeze development. Temperatures Monday night will be in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A weak frontal system will impacting the area Tuesday through early Wednesday. There are some small timing differences with the global models with both the onset of warm advection rain and the possibility of scattered convection lingering into Wednesday as the airmass change behind a cold front is subtle. Have a slight chance of thunder ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon/night as Showalter indices are progged down to -2 to 2 over the region. This does not look to be a significant rainfall event. Additionally, while the westerlies and an upper trough will remain across the area through midweek, the instability at this time looks to be only marginal. High pressure builds across the area on Thursday and remains through Saturday, resulting in dry weather with above normal temperatures. A frontal system is then forecast to impact the region Saturday night into Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes into Monday evening, then moves off the NJ coast Monday night. VFR through the TAF period. Winds N to NE overnight under 10 KT. Winds NE early Monday morning, before becoming light and variable. Seabreeze conditions expected Monday afternoon at all terminals but KSWF where a light WSW flow is forecast. Winds become light and variable Monday evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Late Monday night-Tuesday morning...VFR. .Tuesday afternoon/night...MVFR in any showers, otherwise VFR. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible. S winds G15-20KT possible Tuesday afternoon. .Wednesday-Friday...VFR. NW-N winds G15-25KT possible Wednesday-Wednesday night.
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&& .MARINE... Small Craft Advisory (SCA) allowed to expire west of Fire Island Inlet. For the coastal ocean waters east of there, have extended the SCA through 6am as seas remain at or above 5 ft, especially over the southern portions of both zones. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is expected through the week, keeping all waters below Small Craft Advisory levels. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant hydrologic issues are anticipated through the next 7 days. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ350-353.
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