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000
FXUS61 KOKX 220804
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
404 AM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes through early this morning before stalling
south of Long Island into tonight. High pressure gradually
builds in from the Great Lakes through the remainder of the
weekend. A frontal system will then impact the area Tuesday
into Wednesday, ending with a cold frontal passage Wednesday
night. High pressure returns for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Weakening line of showers ahead of a cold front becoming widely
scattered with only a few light returns remaining on radar.
Showers will continue to dissipate as they run into more stable
air but have kept chance PoPs over the next few hours.

The cold front will continue to push off the coast this morning and
settle south of the region. A noticeably cooler and drier northerly
flow will set up as high pressure approaches from the Great Lakes.
Clouds will be quick to clear this morning but there could be some
mid-high level clouds across the area this afternoon as mid-level
shortwave energy passes through.

It will start to feel like Fall today as dewpoints fall into the
upper 40s to lower 50s with highs ranging in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The high will continue pushing westward, and the region will be
under a more easterly flow. The stalled front will linger off the
Delmarva with the GFS indicating the front pushing back north with
some rain late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Other
models continue to indicate the front remaining well to the
south, so have kept a dry forecast through Saturday night.

Overnight min temperatures will be near seasonable in the upper
40s for the northern areas and in the 50s around NYC metro and
across Long Island as cloud cover will mitigate radiational
cooling.

High pressure remains in control on Sunday with temperatures a
few degrees cooler than Saturday with an easterly wind and a
partly sunny sky.

There is a moderate risk for the development of rip currents at the
ocean beaches Saturday morning, with a low risk in the afternoon
and on Sunday as winds diminish and seas subside.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A confluent flow across eastern Canada and the northeast will
allow for strong high pressure to pass to the north through
Monday. There is some concern with a frontal wave associated
with a shearing mid-level shortwave trough, but will maintain a
dry forecast on Sunday with some morning clouds mainly near the
coast. Any light rain should stay south of Long Island. The GFS
which does produce some measurable rain across the NYC metro
and Long Island appears to be overdone based on the depth of
dry air and the northern placement of the upper jet in
comparison to the model consensus.

The weather then takes a downhill swing for the midweek as an
upper trough out west races eastward with a frontal system
impacting the area Tuesday into Wednesday. First of which will
be with overrunning rain Monday night into Tuesday night and
then with scattered convection on Wednesday. The cold front
follows Wednesday night. Additional timing issues have now risen
with the GFS trending against the model suite by stalling the
front Wednesday night into Friday, with multiple waves of low
pressure riding along the front. In this scenario, the kicker
will be with a late week cold frontal passage. All the global
models support the late week kicker, the differences though
arise with the lead shortwave trough lifting out to the NE
Wednesday night into Thursday. The magnitude of this feature
and its wavelength separation with the next upper trough/surface
frontal system, will determine whether the first boundary makes
it through. Even the GGEM which sends the first front east of
the area Wednesday night, is close enough for a coastal low to
impact the area Thursday night into Friday. Thus, there remains
quite a bit of uncertainly for the Thursday into Friday
timeframe and have maintained a low chance for rain at this
time.

Seasonable temperatures will start the week, but it then gets
warm and humid Wednesday in the warm sector. The end of the week
is a bit tricky depending on the placement of the aforementioned
frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will pass through late tonight, followed by
building high pressure. MVFR cigs to start, plus a few showers
with cold fropa, will give way to VFR conds.

S-SW winds before cold fropa may shift W and gust over 20 kt
with cold fropa at some terminals, most likely KHPN/KTEB/KLGA.
WNW winds with gusts either side of 20 kt expected throughout
this morning, veering NNW and diminishing slightly this
afternoon, then becoming N-NE less than 10 late late this
afternoon into tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Late Saturday night-Sunday...VFR.
.Monday...VFR.
.Tuesday and Wednesday...Showers with MVFR or lower flight cat
possible. SE winds G25KT on Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
Minimal SCA conds continue on the far ern Sound and on the
ocean waters, with gusts up to 25 kt and ocean seas as high as 5
ft. Left end time of SCA alone on those waters (10Z ern Sound
and 18Z ocean), but have a feeling winds after cold fropa will
remain below criteria, and will be able to cancel earlier than
that.

E winds strengthen Mon into Mon night and continue into Tue ahead of
an approaching warm front. SCA conditions are likely to develop
during this time, with on outside chance of gale force gusts on the
ocean waters. High seas are likely to linger into Wed, with a S flow
as the warm front passes to the N and a cold front approaches later
that day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the weekend.

A frontal system could bring locally heavy showers/tstms Tue
into Wed, first via warm fropa on Tue, then again via trailing
cold fropa on Wed. Anticipate only localized nuisance impacts at
this early point.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ350-
     353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CB
NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...Goodman
MARINE...Goodman
HYDROLOGY...CB/DW
EQUIPMENT...