Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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359 FXUS61 KOKX 191941 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 341 PM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Weak high pressure builds into the the region tonight. A cold front crosses the area Wednesday and Wednesday night with an area of low pressure passing to our south. Canadian high pressure builds in through Thursday Night, then gradually slides to the northeast Friday into Friday Night. A frontal system affects the region Saturday into Sunday. High pressure then builds into the area early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure continues to build into the region tonight. Northwest flow continues, with continued dry weather and minimal cloud cover. Lows should run around normal, generally from the middle 50s to middle 60s. A few upper 60s will be possible in and around the NYC metro area. There will be moderate risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches this evening.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure over the region slides east on Wednesday. We are generally looking at dry conditions on Wednesday, however an increase in clouds can be expected as a cold front and an area of low pressure approaches from the west. There is a low chance for a few showers west of NYC late in the afternoon. Wednesday temperatures will climb into the middle and upper 70s, with a few lower 80 degree readings in and around the NYC metro. Rain will continue to overspread the region wednesday night, as low pressure slides south of the region. There are some differences with the forecast models with respect to the placement of the low and the amount of precipitation. The 12z NAM was a bit of an outlier with well over an inch of QPF. Sided more with the 12z GFS/ECMWF and WPC guidance, with a general half to three quarters of an inch across the southern half of the CWA, with lesser amounts across the Lower Hudson Valley and Southern Connecticut. Precipitable waters increase to 1.75 to around 2" Wednesday night, so there is the potential for locally heavy rainfall as well. Can not rule out a few rumbles of thunder as well. Lows Wednesday night should run a few degrees above normal.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Models in general agreement with the upper air pattern through the period. Mean upper troughing across the NE on Thu, will give way to brief ridging on Friday. The next feature of note will be an upper low over the Central US on Thu/Fri, eventually shearing NE towards the region this weekend as a northern stream trough amplifies south through Ontario/Quebec. A few pieces of energy will work through the NE, before the upper trough axis swings through early next week. This appears to be followed by upper ridging. In terms of sensible weather, tranquil and seasonable late June conditions expected Thursday/Friday as Canadian high pressure builds to the north. Unsettled weather expected Sunday as low pressure track well to the NW, with a warm front moving through the region Saturday, and cold front on Sunday. At this point, appears to be a high shear/low cape situation with warm frontal/prefrontal trough passage Sat into Sat night, bringing threat of showers and a few thunderstorms. Brief very warm and humid interlude on Sunday may allow for a few thunderstorms along the cold front as well. Then return to tranquil and seasonable conditions early next week as Canadian high pressure builds from the northwest.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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High pressure builds into the region tonight and Wednesday. VFR thru the TAF period. N-NE wind 10-15 KT with gusts to 20 kt this evening. NE Wind diminishes and becomes light overnight. Wind becomes light onshore on Wed. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for minor wind direction variability but high confidence remains that overall direction remains right of 360 magnetic. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for minor wind direction variability but high confidence remains that overall direction remains right of 360 magnetic. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments are expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday...VFR. .Wednesday night...Showers likely, possibly a tstm, with MVFR or lower conds, as low pressure passes to the south. .Thursday-Friday...VFR. .Saturday...A chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, late Sat into Sat Night. SE wind near 10 kt. .Sunday...VFR expected. Slight chc of a shower. Winds becoming NW near 10 kt.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure building over the waters will keep winds and seas below SCA levels through Fri. Next chance for SCA conditions may be Sat Night into Sun with moderate S/SW flow ahead of cold front.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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It should be mainly dry into Wednesday morning. Currently forecasting 1/4 to 3/4 of an inch basin average rainfall from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night with the heaviest amounts across NE NJ, New York City, and Long Island. With very high precipitable waters forecast, there is the potential for locally heavy rainfall with any stronger convection. Areas experiencing locally heavy rainfall could experience minor flooding, mainly of urban and known poor drainage areas. No significant widespread hydrologic impacts are currently expected from Thursday into early next week.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/NV NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...IRD MARINE...BC/NV HYDROLOGY...BC/NV EQUIPMENT...

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