-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
263
FXUS61 KOKX 060621
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
221 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered near Nova Scotia and extending along the
New England coast continues to weakens and slowly shift to the
east overnight ahead of an approaching cold front from the
west. The front eventually tracks through the region late Monday
into Monday night before stalling to our south. High pressure
then briefly returns before the stalled boundary lifts back
north as a warm front Tuesday night. A series of low pressure
centers then impact the weather from Wednesday through Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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Showers across Long Island and southern Connecticut gradually
wind down thru daybreak or so. Fog development possible back to
the west with weak flow and residual moisture, will be keeping
an eye on obs should more dense areas develop. Forecast remains
on track.

An upper level ridge offshore continues to move into the Western
Atlantic tonight as a shortwave tracks through the northeast,
with the flow becoming more zonal across the region. Light rain
showers will accompany the shortwave. At the low levels weak
warm advection will be setting up late tonight. And while
temperature may fall a couple of degrees into tonight,
temperatures will be mainly steady with the cloud cover and
precipitation. And then as the warm advection begins
temperatures will hold nearly steady or rise a degree or two
toward Monday morning. The CAMs handle the areal extent and
timing of the precipitation and leaned toward those
probabilities. And with the shortwave moving east precipitation
will be tapering off and ending across much of the areas by
Monday morning.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A closed upper low will track through eastern Canada Monday into
Monday night, and with the flow more zonal a weak cold front
will be approaching during the day. While the flow is more
progressive the latest trends have been to move the front
through a little slower than previous forecasts. Continuing warm
advection ahead of the cold front, and possibly some breaks in
the cloud cover will allow for temperatures to rise into the
lower 70s across much of the region with coastal areas remaining
in the mid to upper 60s. While the NBM temperatures were
several degrees higher than the MOS guidance, with the cloud
cover have used a blend of the NBM with the MOS to have
temperatures several degrees cooler. However, if there are more
breaks in the cloud cover than temperatures inland may rise
into the mid and upper 70s. Have also included the chance of
isolated thunderstorms as surface based CAPE increases to few
hundred J/kg and instability also increases. In addition the
CAMs are showing a developing line of convection ahead of the
cold front during the later half of the afternoon and into the
early evening. The front does move through the region Monday
night, and with the zonal flow stall south of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure briefly noses in on Tuesday with a weakening ridge
aloft before a stalled front to our south slowly lifts north as a
warm front Tuesday night. Weak low pressure from the Great Lakes
moves into the northeast on Wednesday in tandem with a mid-level
shortwave helping the warm front advance through the area. This will
also advect in more moisture with models indicating 1.25-1.45"
PWATs. 850mb warm air advection will help increase instability and
drive better development of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
on this day will be quite warm into the low-80s for NE NJ, and parts
of the Lower Hudson Valley and the NYC metro and in the low-70s for
eastern areas. Model sounding show decent shear, increasing CAPE
aloft with many areas 1000 J/kg or greater, decent speed shear and
increasing midlevel lapse rates. Gusty winds and small hail,
therefore, may be possible with some thunderstorms. When this
timeframe falls within the CAMs, we`ll have a better idea of how
great and exactly where in the CWA this risk will be.

A cold front will then pass through Wednesday night as the low exits
to our east. High pressure will settle in again, briefly, with more
of a zonal pattern aloft.

Another low pressure system approaches from the Ohio River Valley on
Thursday, passing through on Friday as the upper-level trough starts
to deepen over the region. Increased mid-level energy will arrive
ahead of the low early Thursday. PWATs again increase ahead of the
low around 1.3-1.5" based on the latest 12Z model guidance. Showers
and thunderstorms will be likely for this. They are less likely to
be as intense due to cooler air in the region.

A new low pressure system will develop to our south and east
Saturday into Sunday as a larger troughing pattern aloft takes
shape, leading to cooler temperatures settling in.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front slowly approaches from the west, passing through
tonight.

IFR or lower through the morning push, improving to low-end
MVFR this afternoon for some terminals. IFR/MVFR this evening
improves to VFR late tonight. Iso TSRA late aftn/early evening,
but not enough probability and coverage to mention in TAFs.

Light and variable winds through the morning push, possibly
favoring NE to N the most. Winds shift more SW-W for the
afternoon, but remaining under 10kt. Light N winds for late
tonight.

 NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely due to timing of the changing of flight
categories.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: Improving to VFR.

Tuesday: VFR, becoming MVFR to IFR late at night.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of showers. Thunderstorms
possible mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday through Friday: Mainly MVFR. Showers likely, mainly in
the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions
through Thursday, but ocean seas may rise to 5 ft Thursday
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are currently no hydrologic concerns through this week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are running high with the approach of a new
moon Tuesday. Tide levels fell short of Stevens Institute
NYHOPS guidance with the Saturday night high tide cycle, and
most locations fall short of the minor flooding thresholds for
the high tide cycle tonight. At most isolated spots over
Southern Fairfield County may touch minor flooding thresholds.

Statements will be possible for Monday night`s cycle for
Southern Fairfield county, as well as for the south shore back
bays of Nassau County.

The potential of a more widespread minor flooding event that
would necessitate advisories will probably hold off until
Tuesday and Wednesday nights` cycles for these same areas as
well as southern Queens. Statements for these 2 high tide cycles
may be needed for other parts along western LI Sound as well as
lower NY Harbor and Brooklyn.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...BR/DR/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...JC/MW
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...