Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 141130 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 730 AM EDT Sat Jul 14 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure ridge will remain just south and east today, then weaken with the approach of a slow cold front tonight into Sunday. A stronger cold front will impact the area from late Monday into into Wednesday, with high pressure returning for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Some mid level clouds will drift across today from the NW, mainly this morning in tandem with a mid level vort max providing lift. Otherwise, a mid level upper ridge axis, and sfc high pressure just south/east providing stable onshore flow, should combine to keep conds dry for most of today. Guidance indicates potential cluster of tstms holding off until closer to nighttime, but included chance for northern Orange/Putnam as early as 5 PM in the event that any upstream convection moves in more quickly than model fcst. Today should be a warmer day than yesterday in most places, with guidance pointing toward lower 90s for NE NJ, near 90 in NYC, and mid/upper 80s just about everywhere else except along the south shore of E Long Island and SE CT, with upper 70s/lower 80s. There is a high risk for rip current development at all ocean beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Forecast likely PoP for cluster of showers/tstms dropping SE through the area ahead of the slow moving cold front mainly during the evening hours. Skies afterwards should remain mostly cloudy, with lows 70-75. Dewpoints will be on the increase to the mid/upper 60s by daybreak Sunday, so it will start to feel more humid. The front should be invof the area on Sunday, and as the upper ridge axis flattens and an upper trough passes by to the NE, expect more showers/tstms on Sunday, mainly during the AM and early afternoon as vort maxima trailing from the upper trough move across. High temps on Sunday should be similar to those of today, except with lower/mid 80s extending farther east into E Long Island and SE CT. A high risk for rip current development will likely continue at the ocean beaches. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The flow looks to be progressive, with shortwave ridging likely passing east by late day Mon as a a fast moving upper trough digs across the Great Lakes region into Tuesday. This upper trough swings through the area on Wednesday. The flow may remain progressive the end of next week with brief ridging on Thursday before another upper trough for the end of the week. Chances for showers/tstms should return to areas from NYC metro west by late day, and the best chances for rainfall look to be with a cold front Tue into Tue night. Southerly flow ahead of this cold front increases during the day on Tuesday, leading to PW values over 2 inches, so expect any convection to produce heavy rainfall. The atmosphere should dry out quickly once the front moves east on Wed, so there is a possibility the second half of the day ends up dry. Lower chances for showers and thunderstorms exist on Friday, but this will be dependent on the timing of the shortwave and next frontal system. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday through Wednesday, before dropping a few degrees closer to normal values Thursday and Friday. Heat index values should stay mostly below 95 except perhaps in a few spots NW of NYC on Mon. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure moves offshore today. A cold front approaches tonight. Light and variable winds this morning. SW winds increase through the day with 10-15 kt expected in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt possible at city terminals. Winds speeds fall below 10 kt tonight. Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm after 18Z today at KSWF, then after 00Z for the rest of the terminals. Due to uncertainty in timing and coverage will only carry a VCSH prior to 00Z. Will then include a PROB30 for thunder after 00Z for NYC terminals and points west. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Sunday-Sunday night...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR or lower in Showers and thunderstorms. .Monday-Monday night...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms mainly from NYC terminals on N/W. SW winds G15-20KT possible Monday afternoon. .Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in showers and thunderstorms. SW winds G20-25KT possible along with LLWS east of the city in the afternoon and evening. .Wednesday...Showers/thunderstorms possible east early, then VFR.
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&& .MARINE... Winds and seas will generally remain below small craft levels through Monday. There is a chance ocean seas could increase to near 5 ft tonight into early Sunday. SCA conds then appear likely as wind gusts increase to near 25 kt and seas increase to 5 ft on the ocean Tuesday through Wednesday, as a cold front approaches and moves across. && .HYDROLOGY... Basin avg rainfall with the frontal system late today into Sunday could total up to at least 1/4 to 1/2 inch NW of NYC, with 1/2 to 1 inch well north/west. Another 3/4 to 1 1/4 inch basin avg rainfall likely with the slow moving frontal system from late day Mon into Wed morning. Locally heavy rainfall is possible Tuesday afternoon and night, with some potential for minor urban and poor drainage flooding. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are running high due to a combo of the new moon and onshore flow/incoming long period swells promoting tidal piling. Water levels should approach minor thresholds in spots along the SW CT and Westchester coastline with the high tide cycle tonight, also from the back bays of Nassau/Queens westward to Staten Island. Will issue a coastal flood statement to address this. Additional rounds of localized minor flooding may also be possible Sunday night and Monday night. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for NYZ075-080-081- 178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CB/Goodman NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...CB/Goodman AVIATION...BC MARINE...BC HYDROLOGY...CB/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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