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000
FXUS61 KOKX 200548
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
148 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front dissipates over the area overnight, as a cold front
approaches from the west, then crosses the area Sunday. High
pressure will briefly build into the region Sunday night and Monday,
before a weak frontal system impacts the area from late Monday
night into early Wednesday. High pressure returns to close out the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Dense fog expected to improve to 1/2 to 1 mile through the early
morning as sw flow increases ahead of approaching cold front.

Band of showers associated with decaying warm conveyor belt will
move east of LI through 08z. Another broken band of showers
likely towards daybreak with next shortwave coming in.

Temperatures will gradually rise through the 50s and into the
60s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Light showers expected on Sunday as a cold front approaches
from the north and west, then moves through the area Sunday
afternoon. Conditions improve late Sunday afternoon behind the
front with winds shifting to the northwest bringing drier air
across the area for Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will be
in the upper 70s to low 80s with low temperatures Sunday night
in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The upcoming week looks to be relatively benign with a weak
frontal system impacting the area late Monday night into early
Wednesday. There are some small timing differences with the
global models with both the onset of warm advection rain Monday
night and the possibility of scattered convection lingering
into Wednesday as the airmass change behind a cold front is
subtle. This does not look to be a significant rainfall event.
Additionally, while the westerlies and an upper trough will
remain across the area through midweek, the instability at this
time looks to be only marginal.

The second half of the week will feature building heights aloft
as the trough works offshore, resulting in dry weather and
above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front approaches from the west overnight, then crosses
the area today.

IFR-VLIFR into the overnight hours. Conditions improve to MVFR
during the morning for western terminals, and during the
afternoon at eastern terminals. All terminals become VFR by late
this afternoon/early evening.

Light and variable winds, become SSW overnight, with speeds
around 10 kt at city terminals, and lower values elsewhere.
LLWS for all but KSWF overnight as well. LLWS lingers at KGON
into the morning hours.

Winds veer to the WSW to W in the afternoon then to NW by late
afternoon/early evening at western terminals. Could have gusts
15-20kt from early afternoon into early evening at western
terminals as well. At eastern terminals winds do not veer to the
WSW-W until mid-late afternoon and to NW until early this evening.
Gusts to around 15-20 kt possible KBDR/KISP mid-late this
afternoon as well.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.Sunday night-Monday night...VFR.
.Monday...Vfr with light s winds.
.Tuesday-Wednesday...Most likely VFR with low chance of MVFR in
any shower. S winds G15-20kt possible Tuesday afternoon.
.Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. N-NW winds G15-20KT possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Have extended the Marine Dense Fog Advisory that is in effect
until 11 AM.

Small Craft Advisory conditions across the coastal ocean waters
are expected through Sunday evening, with sub small craft
conditions expected elsewhere. Areas of fog tonight lowering
visibility across area waters to less than one mile. A weak
gradient is expected Sunday night through Wednesday, keeping all
waters below Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread significant hydrologic issues are anticipated
through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     CTZ009>012.
NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig/DW
NEAR TERM...Fig/Maloit/NV/DW
SHORT TERM...Fig
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...12/Maloit
MARINE...Fig/Maloit/DW
HYDROLOGY...Fig/DW