Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 200548 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 148 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front dissipates over the area overnight, as a cold front approaches from the west, then crosses the area Sunday. High pressure will briefly build into the region Sunday night and Monday, before a weak frontal system impacts the area from late Monday night into early Wednesday. High pressure returns to close out the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Dense fog expected to improve to 1/2 to 1 mile through the early morning as sw flow increases ahead of approaching cold front. Band of showers associated with decaying warm conveyor belt will move east of LI through 08z. Another broken band of showers likely towards daybreak with next shortwave coming in. Temperatures will gradually rise through the 50s and into the 60s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Light showers expected on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the north and west, then moves through the area Sunday afternoon. Conditions improve late Sunday afternoon behind the front with winds shifting to the northwest bringing drier air across the area for Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with low temperatures Sunday night in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upcoming week looks to be relatively benign with a weak frontal system impacting the area late Monday night into early Wednesday. There are some small timing differences with the global models with both the onset of warm advection rain Monday night and the possibility of scattered convection lingering into Wednesday as the airmass change behind a cold front is subtle. This does not look to be a significant rainfall event. Additionally, while the westerlies and an upper trough will remain across the area through midweek, the instability at this time looks to be only marginal. The second half of the week will feature building heights aloft as the trough works offshore, resulting in dry weather and above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front approaches from the west overnight, then crosses the area today. IFR-VLIFR into the overnight hours. Conditions improve to MVFR during the morning for western terminals, and during the afternoon at eastern terminals. All terminals become VFR by late this afternoon/early evening. Light and variable winds, become SSW overnight, with speeds around 10 kt at city terminals, and lower values elsewhere. LLWS for all but KSWF overnight as well. LLWS lingers at KGON into the morning hours. Winds veer to the WSW to W in the afternoon then to NW by late afternoon/early evening at western terminals. Could have gusts 15-20kt from early afternoon into early evening at western terminals as well. At eastern terminals winds do not veer to the WSW-W until mid-late afternoon and to NW until early this evening. Gusts to around 15-20 kt possible KBDR/KISP mid-late this afternoon as well. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday night-Monday night...VFR. .Monday...Vfr with light s winds. .Tuesday-Wednesday...Most likely VFR with low chance of MVFR in any shower. S winds G15-20kt possible Tuesday afternoon. .Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. N-NW winds G15-20KT possible. && .MARINE... Have extended the Marine Dense Fog Advisory that is in effect until 11 AM. Small Craft Advisory conditions across the coastal ocean waters are expected through Sunday evening, with sub small craft conditions expected elsewhere. Areas of fog tonight lowering visibility across area waters to less than one mile. A weak gradient is expected Sunday night through Wednesday, keeping all waters below Small Craft Advisory levels. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant hydrologic issues are anticipated through early next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for CTZ009>012. NY...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/DW NEAR TERM...Fig/Maloit/NV/DW SHORT TERM...Fig LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...12/Maloit MARINE...Fig/Maloit/DW HYDROLOGY...Fig/DW

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