Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190255 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1055 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move across the region during the early morning hours. High pressure then builds in Tuesday into Tuesday night. A cold front moves through the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. High pressure then builds over the area through Thursday night then slides offshore Friday night into Saturday. A cold front may approach Sunday and move across the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Convection associated with the pre-frontal trough has exited all but far southeast Connecticut. Airmass has stabilized quite a bit across the area ahead of a cold front dropping south across the upstate of New York. Showers were approaching the Lower Hudson Valley as of 02Z. Thinking that this next batch will mainly be showers versus thunderstorms. Cold front moves through the area during the early morning hours and passes offshore by daybreak. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Weak high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Tuesday into Tuesday night. The trough aloft moves into the Canadian Maritimes Tuesday and into Northern Atlantic Tuesday night. The ridging in the mid and upper levels stays anchored in the Southeast US leaving the local region with westerly zonal flow. Rain showers come to an end during the morning behind the cold front. More stable and drier air moves in behind the front during the day with deep N/NW flow in the atmosphere. This will provide downslope warming and while less humid with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. This will be from daytime mixing up to around or a little higher than 5 kft. The highs were taken from the relatively warmer MAV guidance ranging from mid 80s to near 90. However with aforementioned less humid conditions, apparent temperatures will be right near actual temperatures. For Tuesday, there will be moderate risk of rip currents at the ocean beaches, and high risk for rip currents again for Southeast Suffolk ocean beaches. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low pressure will track along a boundary Wednesday afternoon. This could bring widespread showers and thunderstorms across the entire area Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Some of the thunderstorms are capable to produce torrential downpours along with gusty winds. As the boundary moves offshore Wednesday night showers will tapper off. Dry conditions expected on Thursday and into early Saturday. Unsettled weather then likely later Saturday and into the beginning of the work week with some rumbles of thunder mainly Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Temperatures during this time period will be near normal. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A second round of showers will impact the area mainly after midnight as a cold front moves across the area. Airmass has stabilized quite a bit and thunderstorms are seeming less likely during the overnight. High pressure then builds in from the NW on Tuesday. Gusty S-SW flow around 10-15 kt veers around to the NW toward daybreak behind the cold front at 10 to 15 kt, then becomes N during the day. Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible on Tuesday .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR. .Wednesday night...Showers likely, possibly a tstm, with MVFR or lower conds, as low pressure passes to the south. .Thursday-Friday...VFR. .Saturday...A chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, late Sat into Sat Night. && .MARINE... In terms of wind gusts, SCA gusts will continue on the ocean much of tonight east of Fire Island Inlet. West of Fire Island inlet, there will be some brief wind gusts near 25 kt into early this evening. The mixing will be limited with a low level inversion, warmer air above above relatively cooler SSTs. Weak high pressure builds in Tuesday and Tuesday night with a weak pressure gradient. Ocean seas will lower Tuesday morning. The winds and seas will stay below SCA criteria thereafter through Tuesday night. Below SCA conditions expected across all area waters Wednesday through the end of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... An additional showers activity overnight is expected to produce less than a quarter inch on average. Widespread showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon and night. Some storms are capable of producing heavy downpours, with a threat for urban flooding. No significant widespread hydrologic impacts are expected Thursday through the weekend. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NYZ081. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/JM NEAR TERM...JM/DW SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...DW MARINE...Fig/JM HYDROLOGY...Fig/JM EQUIPMENT...//

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