-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 190255
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1055 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region during the early
morning hours. High pressure then builds in Tuesday into
Tuesday night. A cold front moves through the area Wednesday and
Wednesday night. High pressure then builds over the area
through Thursday night then slides offshore Friday night into
Saturday. A cold front may approach Sunday and move across the
area on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Convection associated with the pre-frontal trough has exited
all but far southeast Connecticut.

Airmass has stabilized quite a bit across the area ahead of a
cold front dropping south across the upstate of New York.
Showers were approaching the Lower Hudson Valley as of 02Z.
Thinking that this next batch will mainly be showers versus
thunderstorms.

Cold front moves through the area during the early morning hours
and passes offshore by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Tuesday into
Tuesday night. The trough aloft moves into the Canadian
Maritimes Tuesday and into Northern Atlantic Tuesday night. The
ridging in the mid and upper levels stays anchored in the
Southeast US leaving the local region with westerly zonal flow.

Rain showers come to an end during the morning behind the cold
front.

More stable and drier air moves in behind the front during the day
with deep N/NW flow in the atmosphere.

This will provide downslope warming and while less humid with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s. This will be from daytime mixing
up to around or a little higher than 5 kft. The highs were taken
from the relatively warmer MAV guidance ranging from mid 80s to near
90. However with aforementioned less humid conditions, apparent
temperatures will be right near actual temperatures.

For Tuesday, there will be moderate risk of rip currents at the
ocean beaches, and high risk for rip currents again for
Southeast Suffolk ocean beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure will track along a boundary Wednesday afternoon. This
could bring widespread showers and thunderstorms across the entire
area Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening. Some of the
thunderstorms are capable to produce torrential downpours along with
gusty winds.  As the boundary moves offshore Wednesday night showers
will tapper off. Dry conditions expected on Thursday and into early
Saturday. Unsettled weather then likely later Saturday and into the
beginning of the work week with some rumbles of thunder mainly
Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

Temperatures during this time period will be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A second round of showers will impact the area mainly after
midnight as a cold front moves across the area. Airmass has
stabilized quite a bit and thunderstorms are seeming less likely
during the overnight. High pressure then builds in from the NW
on Tuesday.

Gusty S-SW flow around 10-15 kt veers around to the NW toward
daybreak behind the cold front at 10 to 15 kt, then becomes N
during the day. Occasional gusts up to 20 kt possible on Tuesday

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR.
.Wednesday night...Showers likely, possibly a tstm, with MVFR
or lower conds, as low pressure passes to the south.
.Thursday-Friday...VFR.
.Saturday...A chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, late
Sat into Sat Night.

&&

.MARINE...
In terms of wind gusts, SCA gusts will continue on
the ocean much of tonight east of Fire Island Inlet. West of
Fire Island inlet, there will be some brief wind gusts near 25
kt into early this evening. The mixing will be limited with a
low level inversion, warmer air above above relatively cooler
SSTs.

Weak high pressure builds in Tuesday and Tuesday night with a
weak pressure gradient. Ocean seas will lower Tuesday morning. The
winds and seas will stay below SCA criteria thereafter through
Tuesday night.

Below SCA conditions expected across all area waters Wednesday
through the end of the week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
An additional showers activity overnight is expected to produce
less than a quarter inch on average.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday
afternoon and night. Some storms are capable of producing heavy
downpours, with a threat for urban flooding. No significant
widespread hydrologic impacts are expected Thursday through the
weekend.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for NYZ081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fig/JM
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...Fig/JM
HYDROLOGY...Fig/JM
EQUIPMENT...//