Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 131119 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 719 AM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift just offshore today. A warm front will pass to the north tonight. A weak cold front will then approach late Saturday, and dissipate across the area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will briefly follow Sunday night into Monday before a stronger frontal system impacts the area Tuesday into early Wednesday. High pressure will return for the mid week period. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Forecast on track with no changes to the forecast. A partly to mostly sunny day expected today, with afternoon Cu development. Onshore flow expected with sfc high pressure just offshore. High temps west of NYC should be about as warm as yesterday, with lower/mid 80s in most places, perhaps a little warmer away from more direct marine influence west of NYC, with some upper 80s before sea breezes arrive. A moderate rip current risk expected for today at the ocean beaches via 2-ft long period swells and onshore flow around 10 kt.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... As a warm front passes to the north, expect an increase in mid level clouds tonight mainly after midnight and continuing into Sat. An upper ridge axis over the area should hold stronger per NAM, with mid level forcing that might have fired up more widespread late day convection shunted mostly to the north. Some of this energy may still move through the upper ridge axis, but with low levels looking relatively stable via H8 cap over most of the area and a decent S-SW sea breeze along the coast, gusting to 20 kt along the south shore of Long Island, do not expect much in the way of precip except inland toward evening, with chance PoP for sct showers or tstms. After low temps ranging from the upper 50s across eastern Long Island to the lower 70s in NYC and 60s elsewhere, high temps on Sunday should reach the lower 90s in NYC and NE NJ, upper 70s/lower 80s along south facing shores out east, and the mid/upper 80s elsewhere. A high rip current risk may be possible for the NYC and Nassau ocean beaches due to a 15-20 kt sea breeze and incoming long period 1-2 ft swells, with a moderate risk at the Suffolk beaches. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Swells from an offshore low are likely to maintain at least a moderate rip current risk through this weekend. An upper level ridge axis drops south Saturday night into Sunday as a upper trough passes through eastern Canada and the Northeast. A dissipating cold front associated with the upper trough will move across the area. Forcing is weak and instability is marginal with this front. As a result, will only have chance POPs for showers and thunderstorms. Some of this activity could linger into Sunday so will keep at least slight chance in there as well. Heights briefly increase Sunday night into Monday as high pressure briefly builds over the area. Another fast moving upper trough approaches eastern Canada on Monday. This next trough will send a stronger cold front across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Global models are more amplified with this feature which will result in a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. southerly flow out ahead of this front will allow PWATs to increase, so expecting these storms to be capable of producing heavy rainfall. There may be some leftover showers Wednesday morning, but drier air is expected to work into the area by Wednesday afternoon. Expect dry conditions for Thursday and Friday. Temperatures Sunday through Wednesday will be above normal, with temperatures closer to normal values by Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure slowly retreats to the northeast into tonight. VFR through the TAF period. Light and variable winds give way to seabreezes late this morning (CT terminals) and this afternoon (elsewhere except KSWF). KSWF should see WSW winds develop at under 10 kt this afternoon. The winds become light and variable again throughout this evening. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. KISP TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction could be off +/- 1-2 hours. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Saturday...VFR, except for a low chance of MVFR conditions in any isolated late afternoon shower or thunderstorms to the N/W of the NYC Metro terminals. .Saturday night-Sunday night...MVFR or lower possible in any mainly scattered showers and/or thunderstorms. W-NW winds G15-20kt possible Sunday. .Monday-Monday night...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms mainly from NYC terminals on N/W. SW winds G15-20KT possible Monday afternoon. .Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in any showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. SW winds G15-20KT possible during the morning, LLWS possible in the afternoon and evening.
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&& .MARINE... Mainly sub-SCA conditions expected through daytime Sat. May have to watch the ocean waters S of western Long Island for wind gusts approaching 25 kt in S-SW flow ahead of an approaching cold front, with seas building to 4 ft. Even minus SCA conds, rough conditions may be possible at the ocean inlets at times especially on Sat due to incoming long period swells from an offshore low. Ocean seas could build to 5 ft on the ocean Tuesday night into Wednesday as winds increase ahead of a cold frontal passage. && .HYDROLOGY... Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any stronger convection Tuesday afternoon and night. While it is too far out to get too specific on any impacts, there is some potential for at least minor flooding toward the middle of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are running high due to a combo of the new moon and incoming swells promoting tidal piling. Will issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for southern Nassau where water levels are likely to be solidly in the minor category with the high tide cycle tonight, and a statement for the lower boroughs of NYC and for the south facing shores of western Long Island Sound, where minor flooding may be more spotty as water levels barely touch thresholds at forecast points. There is potential for additional minor coastal flooding in these same locations with the Saturday night high tide cycle. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/Goodman NEAR TERM...BC/Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...BC AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...BC/Goodman HYDROLOGY...BC/Goodman TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

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