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000
FXUS61 KOKX 131119
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
719 AM EDT Fri Jul 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift just offshore today. A warm front will
pass to the north tonight. A weak cold front will then
approach late Saturday, and dissipate across the area Saturday
night into Sunday. High pressure will briefly follow Sunday
night into Monday before a stronger frontal system impacts the
area Tuesday into early Wednesday. High pressure will return for
the mid week period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Forecast on track with no changes to the forecast. A partly to
mostly sunny day expected today, with afternoon Cu development.
Onshore flow expected with sfc high pressure just offshore. High
temps west of NYC should be about as warm as yesterday, with
lower/mid 80s in most places, perhaps a little warmer away from
more direct marine influence west of NYC, with some upper 80s
before sea breezes arrive.

A moderate rip current risk expected for today at the ocean
beaches via 2-ft long period swells and onshore flow around 10
kt.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As a warm front passes to the north, expect an increase in mid
level clouds tonight mainly after midnight and continuing into
Sat. An upper ridge axis over the area should hold stronger per
NAM, with mid level forcing that might have fired up more
widespread late day convection shunted mostly to the north. Some
of this energy may still move through the upper ridge axis, but
with low levels looking relatively stable via H8 cap over most
of the area and a decent S-SW sea breeze along the coast,
gusting to 20 kt along the south shore of Long Island, do not
expect much in the way of precip except inland toward evening,
with chance PoP for sct showers or tstms.

After low temps ranging from the upper 50s across eastern Long
Island to the lower 70s in NYC and 60s elsewhere, high temps on
Sunday should reach the lower 90s in NYC and NE NJ, upper
70s/lower 80s along south facing shores out east, and the
mid/upper 80s elsewhere.

A high rip current risk may be possible for the NYC and Nassau
ocean beaches due to a 15-20 kt sea breeze and incoming long
period 1-2 ft swells, with a moderate risk at the Suffolk
beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Swells from an offshore low are likely to maintain at least a
moderate rip current risk through this weekend.

An upper level ridge axis drops south Saturday night into Sunday as
a upper trough passes through eastern Canada and the Northeast. A
dissipating cold front associated with the upper trough will move
across the area. Forcing is weak and instability is marginal with
this front. As a result, will only have chance POPs for showers and
thunderstorms. Some of this activity could linger into Sunday so
will keep at least slight chance in there as well.

Heights briefly increase Sunday night into Monday as high pressure
briefly builds over the area. Another fast moving upper trough
approaches eastern Canada on Monday. This next trough will send a
stronger cold front across the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Global
models are more amplified with this feature which will result in a
better chance of showers and thunderstorms. southerly flow out ahead
of this front will allow PWATs to increase, so expecting these
storms to be capable of producing heavy rainfall.

There may be some leftover showers Wednesday morning, but drier air
is expected to work into the area by Wednesday afternoon. Expect dry
conditions for Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures Sunday through Wednesday will be above normal, with
temperatures closer to normal values by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure slowly retreats to the northeast into tonight.

VFR through the TAF period.

Light and variable winds give way to seabreezes late this morning
(CT terminals) and this afternoon (elsewhere except KSWF). KSWF
should see WSW winds develop at under 10 kt this afternoon. The
winds become light and variable again throughout this evening.

     NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can
be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction
could be off +/- 1-2 hours.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies
slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction
could be off +/- 1-2 hours.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies
slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction
could be off +/- 1-2 hours.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies
slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies
slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction
could be off +/- 1-2 hours.

KHPN TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction
could be off +/- 1-2 hours.

KISP TAF Comments: Timing of changes in wind speed and direction
could be off +/- 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Saturday...VFR, except for a low chance of MVFR conditions in
any isolated late afternoon shower or thunderstorms to the N/W
of the NYC Metro terminals.
.Saturday night-Sunday night...MVFR or lower possible in any mainly
scattered showers and/or thunderstorms. W-NW winds G15-20kt possible
Sunday.
.Monday-Monday night...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms mainly from NYC
terminals on N/W. SW winds G15-20KT possible Monday afternoon.
.Tuesday...MVFR or lower possible in any showers and thunderstorms.
Locally heavy rainfall possible. SW winds G15-20KT possible during
the morning, LLWS possible in the afternoon and evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Mainly sub-SCA conditions expected through daytime Sat. May have
to watch the ocean waters S of western Long Island for wind
gusts approaching 25 kt in S-SW flow ahead of an approaching
cold front, with seas building to 4 ft. Even minus SCA conds,
rough conditions may be possible at the ocean inlets at times
especially on Sat due to incoming long period swells from an
offshore low.

Ocean seas could build to 5 ft on the ocean Tuesday night into
Wednesday as winds increase ahead of a cold frontal passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any stronger convection
Tuesday afternoon and night. While it is too far out to get too
specific on any impacts, there is some potential for at least
minor flooding toward the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are running high due to a combo of the new
moon and incoming swells promoting tidal piling. Will issue a
Coastal Flood Advisory for southern Nassau where water levels
are likely to be solidly in the minor category with the high
tide cycle tonight, and a statement for the lower boroughs of
NYC and for the south facing shores of western Long Island
Sound, where minor flooding may be more spotty as water levels
barely touch thresholds at forecast points.

There is potential for additional minor coastal flooding in
these same locations with the Saturday night high tide cycle.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/Goodman
NEAR TERM...BC/Goodman
SHORT TERM...Goodman
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...Maloit
MARINE...BC/Goodman
HYDROLOGY...BC/Goodman
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...