Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 161114 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 714 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the region through Monday. A cold front will slowly sag south Monday night into Tuesday, and then remain to the south into late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Deep layered ridging builds in today. Should see some thin high clouds, and also some high- based Cu this afternoon. Mixing up to 775 mb per 00Z NAM forecast soundings should yield high temps in the upper 80s in NE NJ, and lower/mid 80s elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Fair conditions continue tonight, with mostly clear skies and low ranging from near 70 in midtown NYC, to the mid 50s in the Long Island Pine Barrens and the interior valleys north/west of NYC. As an upper ridge begins to build into the area, temps will continue to increase, with highs in the lower 90s in NE NJ, 80-85 along south-facing coastlines. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As the upper ridge builds toward the area and an upper low move east across Hudson Bay into Quebec, the ridge will flatten out, with mid level WNW flow becoming established. Meanwhile a more WSW low level flow will continue to advect a hot and humid air mass into the Northeast, so after a night with temps bottoming out from the 60s to lower 70s Sunday night, H8 temps reaching 20C with full mixing and a partial downslope component will allow temps to soar into the 90s across most of the area, the exceptions being across coastal CT and the south shore of Long Island, where 80s should prevail. Upper 90s are possible in the urban corridor of NE NJ. Heat index values look most likely to reach 100 in the interior valleys well NW of NYC, with mid/upper 90s just about everywhere else from NYC north/west. There are some questions as to whether any convection will develop in/near an inland thermal trough Mon afternoon as a weak mid level shortwave trough moves across, also whether any upstream MCS`s could impact at least part of the area going into late day. These details remain unclear and so have forecast only 20-30 PoP Mon afternoon/night. It will remain rather warm and humid Mon night, with lows from the upper 70s in NE NJ, to the lower/mid 70s most elsewhere, to the upper 60s across far eastern coastal sections. Timing of a cold frontal passage from the north thereafter remains somewhat uncertain, with general consensus suggesting Tuesday. If the front is slower to drop through, urban NE NJ could see one more 90-degree day. It is also possible given increasing deep layer WNW flow, antecedent hot/humid air mass, and increasing DCAPE, that we may have to watch out for one or more MCS`s, though exact timing and placement remain uncertain. By Wednesday through Friday, heights fall as upper trough shifts more southeastward, allowing the front to slowly move through, with decreasing rain chances as the front sinks south and high pressure builds to the north. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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High pressure slowly builds to the south of Long Island into Sunday morning. VFR through the TAF period. Winds become NW-WNW at less than 10 kt this morning. Seabreezes at KGON/KBDR/KJFK/KISP/KLGA from around midday (CT terminals) through this afternoon. Elsewhere winds back to the W-WSW with speeds less than 10KT. The exception is at KSWF where winds remain NW this afternoon. Winds become light and variable throughout again this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Sunday-Monday morning...VFR. .Monday afternoon-Tuesday...Most likely VFR. Low chance of a shower and/or thunderstorm with MVFR possible. SW winds G15-20KT possible Monday afternoon/evening. .Tuesday Night-Wednesday...Chance of MVFR in showers/thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters will limit winds to around 10 kt or less through Monday morning, except in the NY Bight this afternoon/evening with the sea breeze. The pressure gradient tightens Monday afternoon, with sustained winds up to around 20 kt and gusts on the coastal ocean waters probably to around 25 kt. This should continue Monday evening. Seas on the coastal ocean waters could reach around 5 ft as a result Monday night. On the non-ocean waters winds should be limited to up to around 15 kt gusting to around 20 kt Monday afternoon and evening. The pressure gradient then slackens over the waters into Tuesday, with winds around 10 kt or less on all the waters around Long Island from Tuesday through Wednesday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Other than isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms late Mon through Wed, no hydrologic issues are anticipated. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/PW NEAR TERM...Goodman SHORT TERM...Goodman LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...Maloit HYDROLOGY...Goodman/PW EQUIPMENT...

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