Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 191942 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 342 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds down from the Canadian Maritime Provinces through Thursday. A warm front passes to the northwest Thursday night, followed by a cold front crossing the Tri-State late Friday night into Saturday morning. The front settles just to the south into early next week as strong high pressure builds to the north. A slow moving frontal system will move towards the region the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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High pressure builds southward into the region tonight. A northeast to east flow and subsidence inversion should allow low stratus to move back into the region tonight, possibly remaining into Thursday morning. The main question will be how far west the stratus reaches. Lows tonight will fall into the 50s and 60s. A MAV/MET/ECS blend was used for overnight lows. There is a moderate risk for the meteorological enhancement of rip current formation at Atlantic Ocean Beaches Today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Thursday morning will start off with cloudy or mostly cloudy skies as stratus remains over the region. The cloud should start to dissipate by mid morning as drier air moves into the region, however we could still be looking at a partly cloudy day, especially across the western half of the region as high clouds start moving into the region as a cold front approaches from the west. As a cold front approaches Thursday night, clouds will once a again increase. Despite the cloud cover will go with a dry forecast through the short term, thinking that any precipitation will hold off til Friday. Temperatures on Thursday will climb into the lower and middle 70s, while lows Thursday night fall into the 50s and 60s. Forecast guidance was in good agreement with temperatures and used a blend of the MAV/MET and ECS. There is a moderate risk for the meteorological enhancement of rip current formation at Atlantic Ocean Beaches through Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Generally a zonal upper flow expected through early next week between Southeastern US ridging transitioning to Bermuda ridging, and a Hudson Bay upper low sliding into Eastern Canada. Good agreement between models in a PAC shortwave rotating through this flow through the Great Lakes on Friday and then the Northeast US Friday night. At the surface, decent agreement with a frontal system approaching the region on Friday in response to this shortwave. Instability and winds fields suggest an organized line of convection developing across Western NY/PA and tracking eastward in the afternoon. Timing of lagging shortwave forcing/front indicate that this line would not make it into the region till the overnight hours. With waning instability and lagging forcing, it is questionable how far eastward into the region any strong to damaging wind threat would maintain as strong shear/wind could lead to an outflow dominant transition. At this point, areas N&W of NYC would have a marginal risk for some strong to damaging winds gusts if this line arrives in the evening, with a diminishing threat as it approaches the deepening stable layer near the coast. Thereafter, a fall type airmass likely for the weekend into early next week as the cold front settles just to the south and Canadian high pressure builds into New England. With close proximity to stalled boundary and under periphery of the ridge/upper jet, could be looking at mid and high clouds streaming across the region through the weekend. Perhaps a few sprinkles or light showers possible across southern portions of the Tri-state if the boundary stalls close enough, but otherwise dry. Then a gradually increasing chance for stratus and shower development Monday or Monday night with approach of the next frontal system. Then a good signal for a return to a moist tropical environment for mid to late week as troughing begins to amplify into the Central US, and Bermuda ridging remains stubborn. A slow approaching frontal system will bring potential for rounds of showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the interior, during this time along with a warm and unseasonably humid airmass.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure over New England through Thursday. Mainly a VFR forecast through the TAF period with exception of eastern terminals where MVFR is expected. Any ceiling heights will generally be in the 2-4k ft range, with the lowest cigs NE of NYC. Isolated ceilings to 1K are possible KGON and KISP especially late tonight or early Thursday morning. Any broken ceilings overnight may see a brief improvement to SCT at times. Winds generally N-NE tonight 10 kt or less especially overnight. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Amendments possible for any ceilings that drop below 3K feet overnight. KLGA TAF Comments: Amendments possible for any ceilings that drop below 3K feet overnight. KEWR TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of MVFR ceilings overnight. KTEB TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of MVFR ceilings overnight. KHPN TAF Comments: Amendments possible for timing of MVFR ceilings overnight. KISP TAF Comments: Amendments likely for timing of cigs. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .18Z Thursday...VFR. .Thursday night...Slight chance of showers with MVFR possible. .Friday-Friday night...VFR during the day, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR at night. .Saturday-Sunday...An early shower Saturday, then VFR through the weekend. .Monday...Chance of MVFR...especially in the afternoon.
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&& .MARINE...
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Seas tonight are expected to build to 4-5 ft on the ocean waters As a result, an SCA will remain up for all the ocean zones. Seas may be marginal on the western ocean waters, but not enough confidence at this time to take the SCA down. This will need to be monitored. On Thursday, the seas around 5 ft should continue on the coastal ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet. I am not confidence we see the 5 ft seas on the remaining ocean waters to have the SCA up at this time. Seas will remain around 4 ft through Thursday night. Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the non-ocean waters through Thursday, and on all waters Thursday night. A tightening S/SW pres gradient ahead of an approaching cold front is expected to produce SCA conds on most of the local waters late Fri/Fri night. Winds should diminish by Sat morning, although SCA swells on the ocean will likely linger into Saturday morning. Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions are then expected to return for all waters through the weekend as high pressure builds to the north. Easterly winds likely strengthen Monday into Monday Night ahead of an approaching warm front, with potential for SCA conditions to develop on the ocean.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No significant hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday. There is potential for rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms mid to late next week.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ353.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...BC/NV NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...IRD MARINE...BC/NV HYDROLOGY...BC/NV EQUIPMENT...

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