Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 221433 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1033 AM EDT Fri Jun 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will slowly approach from the southwest today, and pass late Saturday. The front lifts to the north Sunday, followed by a cold front late Sunday and again Monday. High pressure builds through mid week, then gives way to a warm front Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Mid and high level clouds will continue to gradually advance northeast across the area ahead of an approaching warm front to to the southwest and low pressure over the Ohio Valley. Have backed off with any mention of showers this afternoon across far western areas. Remainder of forecast looks good with highs in the mid to upper 70s and east winds. There remains a moderate rip current risk today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Thetae continues to increase tngt, leading to an increase in rain chcs. The NAM suggests elevated instability could increase sufficiently aft 6-9z for an embedded tstm. Any tstm activity would be elevated with lightning and enhanced rainfall the only threats. Additional shwrs and tstms are likely on Sat as the h5 low approaches and dpva acts on the moist and increasingly unstable environment. As the front begins to pass late in the day, sfc based instability will be limited by the sly flow off the ocean, limiting the threat of sfc based convection. Frontal timing appears to be trending slower in the models, so if this continues it may not punch into the cwa until Sat ngt. An ely breeze will increase during the day ahead of the front, with gusts around 20 mph possible especially along the coasts. The NBM was used for temps. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Global models generally concur on main features through the medium range. Initial shortwave passes Saturday night, with sfc warm front lifting north by Sunday morning. Next shortwave dives out of central Canada, with lowering heights Sunday night and Monday across the northeast. Trough axis passes Monday, with a sfc cold front moving across the region late Sunday/Sunday night, and perhaps secondary front Monday. High pressure builds Monday through Wednesday, with ridge building aloft. Downstream shortwave tracks across the northern tier toward the Great Lakes region Thursday, with sfc warm front approaching. As for sensible weather, showers and thunderstorms Saturday night ahead of the shortwave will diminish in coverage as the night progresses into Sunday morning. Ample Cape for thunder, and a few heavy downpours are possible as deeper moisture increases. As mentioned, isolated coverage to showers/thunderstorms early Sunday will give way to increasing chances later in the day ahead of the cold front. Best chance for thunderstorms looks to be NW of NYC metro. A few passing showers with the upper trough are possible later Sunday night into Monday with secondary cold front. Then, dry weather returns through mid week. Next chance for showers/thunderstorms will be Thursday ahead of aforementioned shortwave, warm front. Temperatures remain near or slightly above normal Sunday, closer to normal Monday, then rebound to above normal Tuesday through Thursday as ridge builds. && .AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure will build from the north this morning, before moving offshore this afternoon. A wave of low pressure then approaches the area from the west Friday night into Saturday. VFR conds expected today. There is now some question as to whether cigs could lower to MVFR or even IFR right after sunset. Have begun to trend forecast in that direction with TEMPO at some sites after 03Z. MVFR likely late tonight as showers move into the area. IFR conditions are then possible daytime Sat. SE winds are now in at KJFK/KISP/KGON, and should arrive at most remaining terminals this afternoon, with speeds 10-15 kt. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: MVFR or IFR cigs could move in tonight sooner than forecast. The afternoon haze forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: MVFR or IFR cigs could move in tonight sooner than forecast. The afternoon haze forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: MVFR or IFR cigs could move in tonight sooner than forecast. The afternoon haze forecast is GREEN, which implies slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: MVFR or IFR cigs could move in tonight sooner than forecast. No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Saturday...MVFR or lower conds. Showers likely, possibly a thunderstorm during the evening and nighttime hours. .Sunday...Chance of MVFR or lower conds in showers and thunderstorms. .Monday...Chance of showers early, then becoming VFR. .Tuesday...VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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East winds and seas gradually increase thru Sat ahead of an approaching warm front. Wind speeds and waves will be very close to sca criteria tonight and Sat, particularly on the ocean. Winds will shift to the south, then southwest Saturday night and Sunday as a warm front lifts north of the waters. A cold front passes across the waters Sunday night, with a secondary front passing Monday. Winds will shift around to the northwest, then north during this time. High pressure builds toward the waters Monday night and Tuesday, which will result in winds shifting back around the south/southwest. Generally, sub SCA conditions are anticipated Saturday night through Tuesday. Ocean seas however may reach 5 ft at times Sunday into Monday, so cannot rule out SCA for hazardous seas on the ocean during that time frame.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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There could be a few locally heavy downpours late tonight thru Sun, but no hydrologic impacts are anticipated.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...DW AVIATION...FEB/Goodman

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