-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
105
FXUS61 KOKX 090311
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1111 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stalls south of the area overnight before a low
pressure approaches the area from the west on Thursday. The low
lingers over the area through Friday night. A series of lows
move through the vicinity of the region this weekend. High
pressure builds offshore for early next week before another low
potentially moves in for the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
At 02Z a cold front was moving across the Long Island Sound and
into northern New Jersey. Scattered thunderstorms have moved out
of the area and with southeastern Connecticut becoming more
stable additional storms are not expected.

With the passage of the cold front much drier air was moving
into the region as dew points fall into the mid 40s to around 50
degrees. However residual low level moisture will remain across
eastern areas and some patchy fog into late tonight is possible.

Lows tonight will be generally in the 50s, with the warmest
spots in the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level energy upstream will force a surface low pressure system
to move across the Ohio Valley and approach the area into Thursday.
Showers may approach the area during the morning but will become
gradually more likely into the afternoon. The latest model guidance
has trended much of the shower activity with this system to the
south, which may hold off much of the shower activity off until the
late afternoon or evening, especially for areas north and east.
Highs Thursday will be fairly seasonable with temperatures in the
middle 60s to low 70s.

As the center of the low pressure moves into the area Thursday
night, shower activity will increase substantially so that much of
Thursday night through Friday morning will have widespread showers,
some of which may be locally heavy with some embedded convective
elements possible, though thunder is not likely.

Though there is some uncertainty as to the exact placement of the
low on Friday, it looks to meander in the general area as an upper
level trough moves overhead, the surface low will spin over the
area on Friday resulting in additional shower activity during much
of the day. As such, temperatures will be below average with
highs only in the middle 50s. The shower activity should begin to
wind down from west to east overnight Friday and into early morning
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
From analysis of large scale deterministic weather prediction models
of the GFS, ECMWF, and the Canadian models, the following features
were noted from the lower to upper levels.

The upper level jet is shown to remain south of the region this
weekend and then with more ridging next week, parts of the upper
level jet traverse the local area.

Mid level trough south of region Saturday morning, then shifts east
during the day with brief ridging as the local area will be in
between shortwaves.

Next shortwave moves in Saturday night with another moving south of
the region Sunday. The larger trough encompassing these shortwaves
and periodic positive vort maxima will be lingering across the
region through Sunday. This trough then moves east of the region
Sunday night.

Overall the larger scales convey a mid level ridging trend taking
place for early into middle of next week for the local area. For
Monday night into early Tuesday next week, a subtle small shortwave
embedded within the ridge is forecast to move across. By Wednesday,
especially late day into Wednesday night, next trough could be
potentially moving in from the west.

At the surface, low pressure moves south and eventually southeast of
the region Saturday. Weak pressure gradient follows across the local
region. This weak high pressure will be brief as low pressure
approaches Saturday night and moves near to south of the area early
Sunday. Low pressure passes southeast of the region Sunday into
Sunday night.

Offshore high pressure briefly builds in late Sunday night into
early Monday and then moves farther offshore as another wave of low
pressure approaches Monday afternoon into Monday night. This low
pressure will be weak and will traverse the local area late Monday
night into early Tuesday. Another low may approach the area next
Wednesday.

Chances of rain showers are forecast much of this weekend and for
Sunday when relatively the coldest air aloft moves across, put in a
slight chance of thunderstorms for the mid afternoon into early
evening hours.

Mainly dry conditions are forecast Sunday night through early
Tuesday. Then, next chance of rain showers is forecast Tuesday
afternoon into the midweek timeframe.

Temperatures for the weekend exhibit less of a diurnal trend, and
generally expected to be below normal for daytime hours and then
near to above normal for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front was moving into Long Island and into northeastern
New Jersey at 02Z, and will push to the south into the overnight
hours before stalling through the mid Atlantic region. A wave
of low pressure tracks along the stalled boundary late Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night.

VFR. At KGON there is a chance of IFR conditions until around
06Z with fog and stratus. Then late in the forecast, toward 22Z,
there is a chance of showers, however conditions remain VFR
until later Thursday evening.

Winds ahead of the cold front remain from the W/SW 10-15kt with
occasional higher gusts. Behind the front winds shift to the NW
and then N and remain northerly into early Thursday morning.
Winds become light Thursday afternoon, and have low confidence
in directions. A sea breeze is possible.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Low confidence wind forecast for Thursday afternoon as winds may
be anywhere from NE to E/SE to S, under 10kt. A sea breeze is
possible at KJFK.


OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Night: MVFR or lower developing with a chance of
showers.

Friday: MVFR or lower with showers likely.

Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
No changes to winds and seas at this time.

Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA conditions
through Thursday. Seas and winds may approach SCA criteria with
winds near 20 kt and seas approaching 5 feet. Any marginal SCA
conditions diminish once again into Friday and stay below SCA
through at least Friday night.

For the long term period of Saturday through Monday night, SCA
conditions are probable on the ocean, due to mainly seas, for much
of the timeframe. Wind gusts stay mainly below SCA thresholds. Sub-
SCA conditions are forecast for non-ocean zones.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Upwards of 0.5" to 1" of rainfall is possible for western
portions of the area Thursday night through Friday but are not
expected to result in any hydrologic impacts. No hydrologic
impacts are expected during the long- term forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Astronomical tides run high the next few days with the new moon
from last night.

Minor flood benchmarks are likely to be exceeded during the evening
high tide cycles overnight and through Friday night for
southern Nassau, southern Queens, and southern Fairfield and
southern Westchester counties with inundation up to a foot.
Localized moderate flooding is possible during Fri evening`s
high tides in the most vulnerable spots of southern Nassau, with
advisories and statements likely in similar locations, and
perhaps including SW Suffolk and portions of the north shore of
Long Island in subsequent evening high tide cycles through
Friday. Statements may also be needed for Thursday and Friday
evening for portions of coastal NE NJ and Staten Island.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ071.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/MW
NEAR TERM...JM/MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...JM/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...