Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 060336 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1136 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds in from west tonight and then offshore on Friday. A low pressure system will track near the area Saturday Night into Sunday. A warm front will then approach on Tuesday and then pass to the north on Wednesday, with Bermuda ridging potentially influencing control for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast is on track this hour with some minor changes made to temperatures and dewpoints. Localized fog development is beginning to occur across portions of eastern LI, where clear skies, calm winds and recent rainfall have moistened the ground. Short term NARRE shows some low to medium probabilities (10-40%) of visibilities of <1 mi with fog development across portions of eastern LI and southern CT overnight through daybreak. A shortwave trough will move west to east across the area tonight, with weak high pressure building in. Clearing skies and light winds will allow for radiational cooling across outlying areas. Overnight lows will be seasonable, ranging from upper 50s to around 60 for far outlying areas, to the mid and upper 60s for the city/coast. This radiational cooling, light onshore flow and residual moisture will allow for patchy fog/stratus development, particularly across E LI/SE CT with earlier rainfall and river valleys.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Dry and warmer on Friday as shortwave ridging builds in aloft with surface high pressure offshore. This will keep the area under an southerly flow with mainly clear skies. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s. A few spots across the NJ metro may top off around 90. The onshore flow will also keep the immediate coast a bit cooler, especially the south shore of LI. For Friday night, some increase in cloud cover late as warm advection ensues as the ridge aloft passes to the east. Lows will be a bit warmer than the previous night, from the mid 60s to around 70. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... East coast ridging on Saturday will give way to an approaching shortwave from the Ohio/tennessee River Valley Sat Night, gradually crossing the region Sunday Night into early next week. There is model spread on how progressive this trough is, with some indication that it may linger into Tuesday/Wednesday. In its wake, potential for Bermuda ridging building into the region for mid to late week. At the surface, high pressure gradually slides east on Saturday, giving way to an approaching weakening cold front from the north Sat NIght into Sunday NIght. Feature of greater interest will be a developing coastal low on Sat along the Mid Atlantic coast, which then tracks NE Sat Night into Sun Night. Quite a bit of model spread on how close to the area this low comes, but at least a low potential at this point for it to bring some rain to coastal/eastern areas Sat Night into into Sunday. Once this feature departs, general agreement with a warm front approaching the region Tue and lifting through on Wed, bringing the region under increasing influence of Bermuda ridging and a hot and humid airmass for mid to late week. Confidence on how long the Bermuda ridging will stay in control is low at this point, with model spread on evolution of the Sun/Mon trough and then an eastward moving shortwave from the Central Plains for mid week. In any case, appears to be a dirty Bermuda ridge, with opportunities for shortwave energy to influence the region, presenting a chance for aft/eve shower and thunderstorm activity to go along with the increasing heat/humidity mid to late week. Magnitude and duration of heat will be predicated on how much the ridging is interrupted by a series of lingering and transient shortwaves. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west overnight. VFR. With light winds and clearing conditions overnight, some MVFR/IFR cigs may return for a few hours before and near daybreak, 08-11Z especially for KGON/KISP/KBDR/KHPN. Winds are southerly across the coastal areas and north/northwest elsewhere 5-10 kts. Winds become light again overnight tonight and will veer southwest on Friday morning through early afternoon. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unexpected amendments are anticipated through the TAF period. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Fri...VFR. .Sat-Sun...Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. .Monday...VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. .Tuesday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... SCA conditions for seas (4 to 7 ft southerly swells) expected through tonight on the ocean waters and then gradually subsiding from west to east on Friday as a southerly swell diminishes. Sub SCA conditions expected this weekend in weak flow regime, but a coastal low will bring some unsettled weather to the ocean and eastern waters Sat Night into Sunday, with brief winds of 15 to 20 kt and seas around 4 ft possible for eastern ocean waters. Winds and seas should fall back safely below SCA levels on Monday with potential for ocean conds to build towards SCA on Tue and moreso Wed in 15 to 20 kt S flow and seas building towards 5 ft. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are expected through the period. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a high rip current risk for all beaches through Friday, due to 4 to 5 ft southerly swells and developing 10 kt southerly flow. Subsiding swells should allow for the risk to fall to moderate on Saturday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NV/DW NEAR TERM...DW/DBR SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...NV AVIATION...DBR MARINE...NV/DW HYDROLOGY...NV/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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