Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 070850 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 450 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will weaken over the Canadian Maritimes today and then drifts back to the west along the New England coast Thursday. A surface trough dropping south on the backside of the low will pass through the forecast area later this afternoon into this evening. A series of troughs will then move across the area Thursday into Friday. Weak high pressure builds in Friday night into Saturday and moves offshore Saturday night into Sunday. A frontal system impacts the area Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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A cutoff upper low over the Canadian Maritimes will gradually weaken over the next couple of days while working west across northern New England. The surface reflection this morning is around a 992 mb low near Nova Scotia. This system is also aiding the southward push of smoke from wildfires across eastern Canada with another significant push per the latest RAP/HRRR guidance for this afternoon into tonight. A surface trough rotating southward on the backside of the low will move across the area late this afternoon into early this evening. CAMs continue to show any showers with the trough to be across southeast CT and eastern LI. Otherwise, looking for a mainly dry day with mostly sunny skies to start, but filling in with clouds due to steep mid level lapse rates and deep cyclonic flow. Any shower activity ends early this evening. NW winds will back around to a more westerly direction this afternoon with possible seabreeze development along the south shore of LI. Light northerly winds follow behind the trough tonight. It will be another seasonably warm day with highs mainly in the 70s, but possibly as high as 80 across metro NJ. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s inland, to the upper 50s across the NYC metro. This is slightly below normal with some cooler air wrapping around behind the low and into the areas.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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The upper low becomes nearly stationary across northern New England during this time in what remains a highly amplified and blocked flow across North America. The upper trough axis rotates southeast and across the area on Friday. This will result in increasing chances of showers each afternoon, especially Friday afternoon with the upper trough axis overhead. Airmass is fairly stable but there could be isolated thunderstorms Friday. Rainfall amounts during this time look to be light with less than a quarter inch forecast. Clouds will also become more prevalent with the placement of the upper flow and moisture being wrapped around the large upper vortex. This will result in a gradual cool down into Friday. Highs on Friday will struggle to get much higher than the upper 60s to around 70. Leaned toward the cooler MOS guidance versus the NBM. Hires guidance also pointing to smoke concerns lingering into Thursday, but confidence is not high.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Upper closed low pressure remains over Northeast Friday night and weakens into a trough, while the surface low dissipates into Saturday. The longwave trough remains across eastern Canada and another shortwave will move into the Great Lakes region Sunday, developing into another closed low that induces a surface low late Sunday night into Monday morning over the central Great Lakes region. The attendant warm and cold fronts will slowly approach the area through Monday night and then move through Tuesday. The now stacked low will remain over the Great Lakes region Monday through Monday night, then head northeast and pass well north and west of the forecast area into Wednesday. Generally unsettled weather will impact the area through much of the long term with a chance of showers, and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. Saturday night into Sunday look to be dry with weak high pressure over the area. The surface low and cold front impacts the area later Monday into Tuesday with chances for showers and thunderstorms once again, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be below seasonal levels Friday, and return to more seasonal levels Saturday into the beginning of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Visibilities are improving across most terminals. Any reduced visibilities due to smoke should continue to improve as we head towards daybreak. VFR conditions are then expected until this afternoon (after 18Z) when another round of smoke is expected to move in from the NW. However, there is a good deal of uncertainty and the forecast may be off by +/- a few hours. NW winds continue to diminish through around daybreak, increasing thereafter. A shift to the W is expected in the afternoon at speeds of 10 to 15 kt. Coastal terminals like KJFK, KISP, KBDR and KGON shift to the W to SW late in the day. However, there is more uncertainty with this wind shift at KJFK and KBDR. There is a slight chance for showers this afternoon, but confidence was not high enough to include in TAFs. Any showers could lower visibility to 5 SM or less at times. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Visibilities will continue to improve through daybreak today, likely lowering again after 18Z today to as low as 3 SM at times in smoke with amendments possible. The smoke could limit slant range visibilities to 3-6 SM as well. OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Tonight: N-NW winds around 5 kt. MVFR vsby again possible in smoke/haze, especially during the evening. Thursday through Friday: Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon and early evening showers both days. Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions late in shra or tsra, mainly for northern terminals. Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR conditions towards evening and at night in shra. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE...
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Winds and seas likely remain below SCA levels through the upcoming weekend with a relatively weak pressure gradient in place. Low pressure moves away from the waters Friday night into Saturday as weak high pressure builds in for Saturday and then east on Sunday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts expected through the beginning of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Water levels continue to gradually fall in conjunction with astronomical tides. In addition, an easterly swell from low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will subside. That being the case, it`s still possible for the high tide cycles Thursday and Friday night to get close to minor coastal flood benchmarks across the south shore back bays of Nassau. A statement is possible, but confidence is not high enough at this time to issue. There is a low risk for the development of rip currents at the ocean beaches today and Thursday due to a diminishing swell and weak winds.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JP MARINE...JP/DW HYDROLOGY...JP/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...//

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