-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 060336
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1136 PM EDT Thu Aug 5 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from west tonight and then offshore on
Friday. A low pressure system will track near the area Saturday
Night into Sunday. A warm front will then approach on Tuesday
and then pass to the north on Wednesday, with Bermuda ridging
potentially influencing control for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast is on track this hour with some minor changes made to
temperatures and dewpoints. Localized fog development is
beginning to occur across portions of eastern LI, where clear
skies, calm winds and recent rainfall have moistened the ground.
Short term NARRE shows some low to medium probabilities
(10-40%) of visibilities of <1 mi with fog development across
portions of eastern LI and southern CT overnight through
daybreak.

A shortwave trough will move west to east across the area
tonight, with weak high pressure building in. Clearing skies and
light winds will allow for radiational cooling across outlying
areas.

Overnight lows will be seasonable, ranging from upper 50s to
around 60 for far outlying areas, to the mid and upper 60s for
the city/coast. This radiational cooling, light onshore flow
and residual moisture will allow for patchy fog/stratus
development, particularly across E LI/SE CT with earlier
rainfall and river valleys.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Dry and warmer on Friday as shortwave ridging builds in aloft
with surface high pressure offshore. This will keep the area
under an southerly flow with mainly clear skies. Highs will
generally be in the mid to upper 80s. A few spots across the NJ
metro may top off around 90. The onshore flow will also keep the
immediate coast a bit cooler, especially the south shore of LI.

For Friday night, some increase in cloud cover late as warm
advection ensues as the ridge aloft passes to the east. Lows
will be a bit warmer than the previous night, from the mid 60s
to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
East coast ridging on Saturday will give way to an approaching
shortwave from the Ohio/tennessee River Valley Sat Night, gradually
crossing the region Sunday Night into early next week. There is
model spread on how progressive this trough is, with some indication
that it may linger into Tuesday/Wednesday. In its wake, potential
for Bermuda ridging building into the region for mid to late week.

At the surface, high pressure gradually slides east on Saturday,
giving way to an approaching weakening cold front from the north Sat
NIght into Sunday NIght. Feature of greater interest will be a
developing coastal low on Sat along the Mid Atlantic coast, which
then tracks NE Sat Night into Sun Night. Quite a bit of model spread
on how close to the area this low comes, but at least a low
potential at this point for it to bring some rain to coastal/eastern
areas Sat Night into into Sunday.

Once this feature departs, general agreement with a warm front
approaching the region Tue and lifting through on Wed, bringing the
region under increasing influence of Bermuda ridging and a hot and
humid airmass for mid to late week.

Confidence on how long the Bermuda ridging will stay in control is
low at this point, with model spread on evolution of the Sun/Mon
trough and then an eastward moving shortwave from the Central Plains
for mid week. In any case, appears to be a dirty Bermuda ridge, with
opportunities for shortwave energy to influence the region,
presenting a chance for aft/eve shower and thunderstorm activity to
go along with the increasing heat/humidity mid to late week.
Magnitude and duration of heat will be predicated on how much the
ridging is interrupted by a series of lingering and transient
shortwaves.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the west overnight.

VFR. With light winds and clearing conditions overnight, some
MVFR/IFR cigs may return for a few hours before and near
daybreak, 08-11Z especially for KGON/KISP/KBDR/KHPN.

Winds are southerly across the coastal areas and north/northwest
elsewhere 5-10 kts. Winds become light again overnight tonight
and will veer southwest on Friday morning through early
afternoon.


     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unexpected amendments are anticipated through the TAF period.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Fri...VFR.
.Sat-Sun...Mainly VFR. Chance of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.
.Monday...VFR. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
.Tuesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions for seas (4 to 7 ft southerly swells) expected
through tonight on the ocean waters and then gradually subsiding
from west to east on Friday as a southerly swell diminishes.

Sub SCA conditions expected this weekend in weak flow regime, but a
coastal low will bring some unsettled weather to the ocean and
eastern waters Sat Night into Sunday, with brief winds of 15 to 20
kt and seas around 4 ft possible for eastern ocean waters.

Winds and seas should fall back safely below SCA levels on Monday
with potential for ocean conds to build towards SCA on Tue and
moreso Wed in 15 to 20 kt S flow and seas building towards 5 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk for all beaches through Friday, due
to 4 to 5 ft southerly swells and developing 10 kt southerly flow.
Subsiding swells should allow for the risk to fall to moderate on
Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NV/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/DBR
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...NV/DW
HYDROLOGY...NV/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...