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000
FXUS61 KOKX 220525
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
125 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build to the south through Monday. As low
pressure passes to the north late Monday night into Tuesday, a
warm front will approach and pass through. A cold front will
follow Tuesday night. High pressure will then build across from
Wednesday into Thursday, and settle over the region on Friday.
The high will retreat on Saturday, followed by low pressure
lifting north along the Eastern seaboard Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Expect a mostly clear night tonight, except perhaps in
interior portions of the Lower Hud Valley and NE NJ where lake
effect clouds have been advancing SE the past few hours. Winds
continue to diminish and will remain light overnight as high
pressure builds to the SW. The light winds and mostly clear
skies will allow for ideal radiational cooling conds. Although
weak WAA will commence tonight, H85 temps between -3C and -5C
will yield lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s across most of the
Tri State Area. The NY/NJ metro area will be slightly warmer,
but still chilly with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. No
changes to frost/freeze headlines.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Expect dry conditions Mon into Mon evening as sfc high pressure
slides to the south and heights rise aloft. There could be a
period of mostly cloudy skies well inland Mon afternoon as an H8
warm front passes across upstate NY into New England. High temps
will be not too far off those of today, mainly upper 40s/lower
50s.

As the core of the sfc high moves offshore Mon night and low
pressure crosses the upper Great Lakes into Ontario, a warm
front approaching from the south should bring mostly cloudy
skies Mon night, and a chance of showers to southern CT and
eastern Long Island. Low temps will be in the 30s inland and 40s
NYC metro/coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
To begin the period on Tuesday the CWA will be south of a warm front
associated with low pressure across the Canadian - US border.
Minimal precip chances appear the way to go during late Tuesday with
the low levels being fairly dry and forcing being north of the
region. As the upper level energy approaches from the west thinking
that a slight chance POPs for northern sections appears prudent, as
the SREF is a good compromise between the GFS and NAM guidance.
Even though the sub-cloud dry layer will be a hindrance to
precip chances, a nice spoke of upper level energy is progged to
come through. The SREF guidance hints at this low precip
probability, therefore slight chances feel prudent for far
northwestern sections during at least parts of this timeframe.

High pressure builds in from the north and west Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday night.  The high will settle over the region on
Friday. Friday morning will most likely be the coolest morning of
the region widespread across the region, especially if the winds
lighten in time which the model consensus is indicating.  There
should be widespread 20s across rural locations Friday morning.
Confidence is high for dry conditions to prevail later Wednesday
right through Friday.

Significant changes then take place into the weekend with the global
models continuing to indicate cyclogenesis along the southeastern US
coast for late in the period.  There is fairly good agreement this
far out in time on the track and overall intensity. However, the
greatest uncertainty is with timing and this is centered around how
quickly a confluence zone at 500 mb lifts north to begin next
weekend.  Some operational runs have lifted the system up sooner
which would lead to clouds arriving quickly late Friday night into
Saturday with rain as arriving as soon as Saturday afternoon, with
the ECMWF 0z run from last night advertising this scenario. However,
more operational runs than not and ensemble means indicating at
least for right now that somewhat slower timing is more likely.
Therefore it seems prudent at this time to delay much of the precip
until Saturday night, but with the introduction of POPs as early as
Saturday afternoon.  If there are impacts from this system it
appears that much of that will wait until the second half of the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A high pressure ridge shifts through the region today.

VFR. NW-W winds under 10 kt through the morning push, then winds
back more to the W, then finally shift SW in the afternoon at
around 10 kt. Frequent gusts confined to KEWR/KTEB in the aftn
which are more prone to gusts on a SW flow. Other sites may see
occasional gusts.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday night...VFR.
.Tuesday...VFR. WSW winds G20KT.
.Wednesday...VFR. NW winds G25KT.
.Thursday...VFR. NW winds G20KT.
.Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
All waters now under an SCA as gusts have dropped below gale
force levels. As winds continue to diminish tonight, SCA conds
on the non ocean waters should abate by midnight, then late
tonight on the ocean.

SCA conditions will return to the eastern ocean waters Tuesday
afternoon, and expand westward across the ocean waters Tuesday
night. SCA conditions may also take place for the eastern
sound/bays for late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. SCA
conditions will then continue for much of the time through
Wednesday for the eastern ocean waters. SCA conditions will then
expand to the western ocean waters and possibly the Eastern
Sound and the bays late Wednesday night into Thursday.

High pressure then begins to approach the coastal waters with sub
SCA conditions for all zones into Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry through much of the period. Low pressure moving up the coast
may bring rainfall on the order of an inch or so Saturday night
into Sunday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ071-078>080-
     177-179.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ081.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JC