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000
FXUS61 KOKX 270233
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1033 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves further offshore tonight. A cold front
moves across the region Monday and then offshore Monday night.
High pressure builds to builds in for Tuesday which remains in
control through the end of the week. Another frontal system may
impact the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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The forecast remains on track. The Tri-State region lies
between offshore high pressure and a cold front across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley region. Some convection has developed
across western PA and western Upstate NY. A weakening shower
could come close to the interior Lower Hudson Valley before
midnight.

The cold front and a middle level trough continue to approach
early Monday morning. Warm advection and increasing moisture
could lead to a few showers before day break, mainly north and
west of the NYC metro. More organized showers should hold off
until after day break on Monday as the front and more focused
lift move in from the west. Otherwise, clouds will increase as
the column moistens ahead of the system. Temperatures remain
mild tonight, generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s. most
elsewhere.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The aforementioned middle level trough approaches on Monday,
sending its associated cold front through the region from west
to east through the day. The timing in the latest global models
and high resolution CAMs has slowed down by around three hours
from previous cycles earlier this weekend. The cold front should
be near or over the Lower Hudson Valley during the morning,
then shift towards the Hudson River corridor and NYC metro early
in the afternoon, finally pushing east across Long Island and
Connecticut late in the afternoon and early evening.

A plume of moisture will lie along and ahead of the approaching
system. Falling heights aloft and surface convergence support
the development of a line showers associated with the more
organized forcing in the morning north and west of the NYC
metro. A few showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere in the
morning in warm advection ahead of the front. The line of
showers may become somewhat more organized late morning into the
afternoon as it encounters are slightly more unstable airmass
aloft. The 12z CAMs are hinting at this potential mainly from
the NYC metro on east across Long Island and southern
Connecticut during the afternoon. There is little to no surface
instability, but there appears to be enough elevated instability
to continue mentioning isolated thunderstorms for the entire
CWA.

Severe thunderstorms are not expected given little to no
surface instability. The main concern with the showers and
isolated thunderstorms continues to be from locally heavy
downpours. PWATs are still progged around 2 inches along and
ahead of the front. The overall progression of the organized
forcing along with about 25-30 kt of middle level flow should
help prevent slow moving or training cells. The main threat will
be from minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

An average of around one half to three quarters of an inch
of rain is forecast, with localized higher amounts.

High temperatures will be cooler than this past weekend with
cloud cover and precipitation, generally in the middle 70s.
There may be some partial clearing late in the day from the NYC
metro on NW which could help temperatures briefly rise close to
80 degrees.

Lingering showers may occur in the evening across the east
end of Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Otherwise, the
cold front will move offshore Monday night. High pressure will
begin to build in from the Ohio Valley, advecting drier air
back over the Tri- State. Lows should range from the upper 50s
inland to around 60 degrees near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
With the cold front offshore, high pressure builds in at the
surface on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the pattern aloft will be
characterized by troughiness through Wednesday night. Therefore,
generally dry and seasonable temperatures are expected through
Wednesday. Deterministic models continue to show a shortwave
moving through aloft Wednesday night with limited moisture.
However there are more ensemble members in the ECMWF and GFS
ensemble models than in previous runs that are showing
precipitation with this feature. Continue to go with a dry
forecast given uncertainty, but right now it seems chances are
increasing for just some light rain showers Wednesday night. A
weak cold front or surface trough may move through late
Wednesday night, but will do so dry with little upper level
support.

An upper level ridge over the Great Lakes region moves east
Thursday into Thursday night, building as it does so. This will
mean warmer conditions for the end of the week. Although
temperatures and humidity levels are increasing during this time
frame, heat index values still look to be below heat advisory
criteria at this time.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late
very late Friday night, but moreso into the weekend as a pre-
frontal trough and associated cold front slowly moves toward the
area. There is some uncertainty as to whether this front will
move offshore or stall just south of the area, so stuck close to
the NBM during this time frame. With the warmer and more humid
conditions, lifted indices are indicating widespread
thunderstorms, but it`s too early to tell whether there
will be any severe threat.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front approaches late tonight into Monday morning. The
cold front swings through later on Monday.

VFR into tonight despite an increase in clouds overnight. MVFR
conditions develop from west to east with a line of showers,
with a few embedded t-storms for Monday morning and for a
portion of Monday afternoon. Heavier showers with a few embedded
t-storms becomes more likely approaching midday on Monday for
the city terminals. The activity lasts thru the late aftn for
ern terminals. Becoming VFR Mon ngt.

Mainly S winds overnight up to 10 kts at most coastal
terminals, and 5 to 10 kts at outlying terminals. SW winds
continue into Monday morning and increase slightly to 8 to 15
kts, with a few gusts possible at eastern coastal terminals.
Winds become NW behind the front late Mon into Mon eve.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday night...VFR.
.Tuesday...VFR.
.Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
.Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
Increasing southerly flow will continue tonight, with gusts
reaching 25 kt on the ocean. The winds may be a bit more
marginal further east, across the ocean east of Moriches Inlet.
Ocean seas will also build to 5-6 ft tonight into Monday. The
cold front moves across the waters Monday evening. Winds should
fall below SCA levels by evening, but lingering 5 ft seas are
likely east of Fire Island Inlet Monday evening. Have extended
the SCA here until 06z Tuesday.

Conditions will generally remain below SCA criteria from
Tuesday through Friday. Waves build on the ocean Friday night
to around 5 ft as a southerly flow sets up ahead of a slowly
approaching cold front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Locally heavy downpours are possible on Monday and could result
in minor urban and poor drainage flooding. An isolated flash
flood occurrence cannot be completely ruled out, but the chance
of this is very low.

No hydrologic concerns expected from Monday night through next
Saturday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high risk of rip currents for Monday for
all ocean beaches as there will be 5+ ft southerly swells
at 5+ seconds.

Although northwesterly winds are expected on Tuesday after
the passage of a cold front, a moderate risk of rip currents is
forecast as the area will be coming off a high risk and it
typically takes at least another day to transition to low.
However conditions may improve by late in the day Tuesday to
moderate.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NYZ075-178-
     179.
     High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday
     evening for NYZ080-081.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
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&&

$$