Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 030842 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 342 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move offshore today as a cold front approaches and moves through tonight. The region will then be situated between strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure across southern Canada for the latter half of the week. The high will build over the region early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Low pressure will pass well south of the area off the Southeastern US coast. A cold front draped across the Northeastern US / Canadian border to the Eastern Great Lakes will approach throughout today. The winds will pick up once again, mainly out of the west-southwest. This will result in a noticeable air mass change for today with the previous cold air mass off to the east and milder air being drawn up ahead of the approaching cold front. By this afternoon temperatures will be a good 15 degrees warmer compared to yesterday. Look for temperatures to get to around 50 along the coast and into the metro area, with middle and upper 40s elsewhere. The day overall will feature a good deal of sunshine. A shortwave will then approach late in the day and towards evening. Nothing more than a few clouds can be expected with this feature as moisture will be rather limited. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A cold front and shortwave will push through this evening. The winds will shift back to the north-northwest behind the frontal boundary. Thicknesses will lower as colder air quickly returns. Temperatures quickly return to normal levels by Thursday morning with lows in the upper 20s north, and mainly lower 30s closer to the coast and metro. The longwave pattern across the CONUS will amplify into Thursday as ridging builds across the Eastern Rockies and the Plains, with a retrograding low moving into Eastern Canada. This will result in an amplifying upper level trough across the Northeastern states. By late in the day 850 mb temps drop back down to around -10C. With strong cold advection driving synoptic scale sinking motion, expect a good deal of sunshine. Temperatures should average a few degrees below normal with upper 30s, to lower and middle 40s for day time maximums. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A deep closed low aloft over the Canadian Maritimes will slowly retrograde a bit westward on Thursday. This upper low is then likely to meander over the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the weekend carving out mean troughing over the northeastern seaboard through the weekend. Upper ridging will persist across the Rockies into Central Canada late this week before gradually shifting eastward this weekend and early next week. The mean trough axis on the ensembles is too far east for any system to impact the region and the overall synoptic pattern favors dry conditions in the long term. Temperatures will generally average below normal into the weekend. Temperatures then trend towards above normal levels early next week as the mean trough shifts offshore and the upper ridge builds over the eastern states. A cold front moves further offshore Thursday morning with cold advection taking shape through the day. A breezy NW flow will also occur due to the increasing pressure gradient over the area between building high pressure to our west and the aforementioned low pressure across southeast Canada. The breezy NW flow will continue Thursday night into Friday before gradually diminishing this weekend as the high pressure slowly nears and the pressure gradient relaxes. The high should then build to our south early next week. The models continue to indicate a southern stream shortwave traversing across the Gulf Coast Friday into the weekend, then interacting with a northern stream shortwave within the mean upper trough. Due to the aforementioned positioning of the mean trough, the low pressure associated with these systems is expected to pass well south and east of the northeast coast. Have removed the slight chance PoPs from the forecast on Sunday. Temperatures on Thursday will be close to normal in the lower to middle 40s, then middle to upper 30s on Friday. Some slight moderation is possible this weekend with highs in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees. Temps should then warm back into the 40s Monday and possibly into the lower 50s by next Tuesday. Nighttime temperatures will generally be in the 20s through the weekend. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR as a strong low pressure lingers over Southeastern Canada through the overnight, a warm front passes well north, and high pressure shifts to the south then weakens on Wednesday. W/SW winds 5-10kt through late tonight become W-NW 10-15 kt Wednesday morning. There may be occasional gusts to near 20 kt by late Wednesday morning. Gusty winds diminish late afternoon and into the evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... The occurrence and timing of any gusts on Wednesday may be off by an hour or two. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... .Wednesday Late Night through Sunday...VFR. NW winds G20-25 on Thu, and G25-30kt on Friday. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/ && .MARINE... SCA conditions will gradually come down from west to east for this afternoon into this evening. However, marginal SCA wind gusts may persist across the eastern ocean well into the evening. The pressure gradient will then increase with SCA conditions becoming likely on the waters for Thursday afternoon through Friday night. The pressure gradient begins to relax by Saturday morning with winds likely to fall below SCA levels on all waters for the upcoming weekend. The strongest winds are likely to occur Thursday night into Friday as ocean wind gusts may reach around 30 kt. Ocean seas will build to around 5 ft Thursday night and remain there through Friday before subsiding Friday night. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the weekend and into the start of next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ330- 340-345-353. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JE/DS NEAR TERM...JE SHORT TERM...JE LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...JC MARINE...JE/DS HYDROLOGY...JE/DS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.