-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 030842
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
342 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move offshore today as a cold front approaches
and moves through tonight. The region will then be situated between
strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure
across southern Canada for the latter half of the week. The high
will build over the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Low pressure will pass well south of the area off the Southeastern
US coast. A cold front draped across the Northeastern US / Canadian
border to the Eastern Great Lakes will approach throughout today.
The winds will pick up once again, mainly out of the west-southwest.
This will result in a noticeable air mass change for today with the
previous cold air mass off to the east and milder air being drawn up
ahead of the approaching cold front. By this afternoon temperatures
will be a good 15 degrees warmer compared to yesterday. Look for
temperatures to get to around 50 along the coast and into the metro
area, with middle and upper 40s elsewhere. The day overall will
feature a good deal of sunshine. A shortwave will then approach late
in the day and towards evening. Nothing more than a few clouds can
be expected with this feature as moisture will be rather
limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A cold front and shortwave will push through this evening. The winds
will shift back to the north-northwest behind the frontal boundary.
Thicknesses will lower as colder air quickly returns. Temperatures
quickly return to normal levels by Thursday morning with lows in the
upper 20s north, and mainly lower 30s closer to the coast and metro.

The longwave pattern across the CONUS will amplify into Thursday as
ridging builds across the Eastern Rockies and the Plains, with a
retrograding low moving into Eastern Canada. This will result in an
amplifying upper level trough across the Northeastern states. By
late in the day 850 mb temps drop back down to around -10C. With
strong cold advection driving synoptic scale sinking motion, expect
a good deal of sunshine. Temperatures should average a few degrees
below normal with upper 30s, to lower and middle 40s for day time
maximums.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A deep closed low aloft over the Canadian Maritimes will slowly
retrograde a bit westward on Thursday. This upper low is then likely
to meander over the Canadian Maritimes Friday into the weekend
carving out mean troughing over the northeastern seaboard through
the weekend. Upper ridging will persist across the Rockies into
Central Canada late this week before gradually shifting eastward
this weekend and early next week. The mean trough axis on the
ensembles is too far east for any system to impact the region and
the overall synoptic pattern favors dry conditions in the long term.
Temperatures will generally average below normal into the weekend.
Temperatures then trend towards above normal levels early next week
as the mean trough shifts offshore and the upper ridge builds over
the eastern states.

A cold front moves further offshore Thursday morning with cold
advection taking shape through the day. A breezy NW flow will also
occur due to the increasing pressure gradient over the area between
building high pressure to our west and the aforementioned low
pressure across southeast Canada. The breezy NW flow will continue
Thursday night into Friday before gradually diminishing this weekend
as the high pressure slowly nears and the pressure gradient relaxes.
The high should then build to our south early next week.

The models continue to indicate a southern stream shortwave
traversing across the Gulf Coast Friday into the weekend, then
interacting with a northern stream shortwave within the mean upper
trough. Due to the aforementioned positioning of the mean trough,
the low pressure associated with these systems is expected to pass
well south and east of the northeast coast. Have removed the slight
chance PoPs from the forecast on Sunday.

Temperatures on Thursday will be close to normal in the lower to
middle 40s, then middle to upper 30s on Friday. Some slight
moderation is possible this weekend with highs in the upper 30s to
near 40 degrees. Temps should then warm back into the 40s Monday and
possibly into the lower 50s by next Tuesday. Nighttime temperatures
will generally be in the 20s through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR as a strong low pressure lingers over Southeastern Canada
through the overnight, a warm front passes well north, and high
pressure shifts to the south then weakens on Wednesday.

W/SW winds 5-10kt through late tonight become W-NW 10-15 kt
Wednesday morning. There may be occasional gusts to near 20 kt by
late Wednesday morning. Gusty winds diminish late afternoon and into
the evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

The occurrence and timing of any gusts on Wednesday may be off by an
hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday Late Night through Sunday...VFR. NW winds G20-25 on Thu,
and G25-30kt on Friday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions will gradually come down from west to east for this
afternoon into this evening. However, marginal SCA wind gusts
may persist across the eastern ocean well into the evening.

The pressure gradient will then increase with SCA conditions
becoming likely on the waters for Thursday afternoon through
Friday night. The pressure gradient begins to relax by Saturday
morning with winds likely to fall below SCA levels on all waters
for the upcoming weekend.

The strongest winds are likely to occur Thursday night into Friday
as ocean wind gusts may reach around 30 kt. Ocean seas will build to
around 5 ft Thursday night and remain there through Friday before
subsiding Friday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the weekend and into
the start of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ330-
     340-345-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JE/DS
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JE/DS
HYDROLOGY...JE/DS