Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 270233 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1033 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves further offshore tonight. A cold front moves across the region Monday and then offshore Monday night. High pressure builds to builds in for Tuesday which remains in control through the end of the week. Another frontal system may impact the area next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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The forecast remains on track. The Tri-State region lies between offshore high pressure and a cold front across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. Some convection has developed across western PA and western Upstate NY. A weakening shower could come close to the interior Lower Hudson Valley before midnight. The cold front and a middle level trough continue to approach early Monday morning. Warm advection and increasing moisture could lead to a few showers before day break, mainly north and west of the NYC metro. More organized showers should hold off until after day break on Monday as the front and more focused lift move in from the west. Otherwise, clouds will increase as the column moistens ahead of the system. Temperatures remain mild tonight, generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s. most elsewhere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... The aforementioned middle level trough approaches on Monday, sending its associated cold front through the region from west to east through the day. The timing in the latest global models and high resolution CAMs has slowed down by around three hours from previous cycles earlier this weekend. The cold front should be near or over the Lower Hudson Valley during the morning, then shift towards the Hudson River corridor and NYC metro early in the afternoon, finally pushing east across Long Island and Connecticut late in the afternoon and early evening. A plume of moisture will lie along and ahead of the approaching system. Falling heights aloft and surface convergence support the development of a line showers associated with the more organized forcing in the morning north and west of the NYC metro. A few showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere in the morning in warm advection ahead of the front. The line of showers may become somewhat more organized late morning into the afternoon as it encounters are slightly more unstable airmass aloft. The 12z CAMs are hinting at this potential mainly from the NYC metro on east across Long Island and southern Connecticut during the afternoon. There is little to no surface instability, but there appears to be enough elevated instability to continue mentioning isolated thunderstorms for the entire CWA. Severe thunderstorms are not expected given little to no surface instability. The main concern with the showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to be from locally heavy downpours. PWATs are still progged around 2 inches along and ahead of the front. The overall progression of the organized forcing along with about 25-30 kt of middle level flow should help prevent slow moving or training cells. The main threat will be from minor urban and poor drainage flooding. An average of around one half to three quarters of an inch of rain is forecast, with localized higher amounts. High temperatures will be cooler than this past weekend with cloud cover and precipitation, generally in the middle 70s. There may be some partial clearing late in the day from the NYC metro on NW which could help temperatures briefly rise close to 80 degrees. Lingering showers may occur in the evening across the east end of Long Island and southeast Connecticut. Otherwise, the cold front will move offshore Monday night. High pressure will begin to build in from the Ohio Valley, advecting drier air back over the Tri- State. Lows should range from the upper 50s inland to around 60 degrees near the coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... With the cold front offshore, high pressure builds in at the surface on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the pattern aloft will be characterized by troughiness through Wednesday night. Therefore, generally dry and seasonable temperatures are expected through Wednesday. Deterministic models continue to show a shortwave moving through aloft Wednesday night with limited moisture. However there are more ensemble members in the ECMWF and GFS ensemble models than in previous runs that are showing precipitation with this feature. Continue to go with a dry forecast given uncertainty, but right now it seems chances are increasing for just some light rain showers Wednesday night. A weak cold front or surface trough may move through late Wednesday night, but will do so dry with little upper level support. An upper level ridge over the Great Lakes region moves east Thursday into Thursday night, building as it does so. This will mean warmer conditions for the end of the week. Although temperatures and humidity levels are increasing during this time frame, heat index values still look to be below heat advisory criteria at this time. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late very late Friday night, but moreso into the weekend as a pre- frontal trough and associated cold front slowly moves toward the area. There is some uncertainty as to whether this front will move offshore or stall just south of the area, so stuck close to the NBM during this time frame. With the warmer and more humid conditions, lifted indices are indicating widespread thunderstorms, but it`s too early to tell whether there will be any severe threat. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A cold front approaches late tonight into Monday morning. The cold front swings through later on Monday. VFR into tonight despite an increase in clouds overnight. MVFR conditions develop from west to east with a line of showers, with a few embedded t-storms for Monday morning and for a portion of Monday afternoon. Heavier showers with a few embedded t-storms becomes more likely approaching midday on Monday for the city terminals. The activity lasts thru the late aftn for ern terminals. Becoming VFR Mon ngt. Mainly S winds overnight up to 10 kts at most coastal terminals, and 5 to 10 kts at outlying terminals. SW winds continue into Monday morning and increase slightly to 8 to 15 kts, with a few gusts possible at eastern coastal terminals. Winds become NW behind the front late Mon into Mon eve. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday night...VFR. .Tuesday...VFR. .Wednesday...Mainly VFR. .Thursday and Friday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... Increasing southerly flow will continue tonight, with gusts reaching 25 kt on the ocean. The winds may be a bit more marginal further east, across the ocean east of Moriches Inlet. Ocean seas will also build to 5-6 ft tonight into Monday. The cold front moves across the waters Monday evening. Winds should fall below SCA levels by evening, but lingering 5 ft seas are likely east of Fire Island Inlet Monday evening. Have extended the SCA here until 06z Tuesday. Conditions will generally remain below SCA criteria from Tuesday through Friday. Waves build on the ocean Friday night to around 5 ft as a southerly flow sets up ahead of a slowly approaching cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Locally heavy downpours are possible on Monday and could result in minor urban and poor drainage flooding. An isolated flash flood occurrence cannot be completely ruled out, but the chance of this is very low. No hydrologic concerns expected from Monday night through next Saturday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a high risk of rip currents for Monday for all ocean beaches as there will be 5+ ft southerly swells at 5+ seconds. Although northwesterly winds are expected on Tuesday after the passage of a cold front, a moderate risk of rip currents is forecast as the area will be coming off a high risk and it typically takes at least another day to transition to low. However conditions may improve by late in the day Tuesday to moderate. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for NYZ075-178- 179. High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NYZ080-081. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ355. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
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