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609
FXUS66 KOTX 172352
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
352 PM PST Tue Feb 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Bands of snow tonight into Wednesday bringing winter travel
  conditions to areas of Eastern WA and North Idaho. Be prepared
  for a slow Wednesday morning commute.

- Periodic hit and miss snow showers Thursday and Friday.

- A break Saturday then additional preciptiation chances Sunday
  into next week.
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&&

.SYNOPSIS...
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An active weather pattern will continue through the work week.
Light to locally heavy snow accumulations in areas of North
Idaho and Eastern Washington by Wednesday. Snow showers will
continue on and off Thursday into Friday. Temperatures moderate
over the weekend with additional chances for mountain snow and
mix of rain and snow in the lowlands next week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...
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Tonight-Wednesday: Cold core upper-level trough continues to wobble
inland promoting steepening lapse rates and increasing
potential for convective showers. As of 2PM, there were showers
across a majority of the Inland NW outside the southwestern
Basin. Many of these showers were driven by afternoon heating
with some assistance from weak embedded waves. This activity
will continue to be monitored for potential impacts heading into
the evening commute and addressed with short term messaging.
Impacts so far have been minor courtesy of temperatures near 40F
and swift south to north movement.

As we head into tonight, impact levels will be on the rise with the
arrival of a strong, more organized wave coming out southern
Oregon. Bands of moderate to locally heavy snow will setup with
this feature delivering little to no impacts for some and
moderate impacts to others. This is largely due to the small
scale banding that will develop delivering 4+ inches of snow in
one area and less than an inch in others. These systems moving
through the cool troughs are very challenging to predict and
often waver from run to run. It`s no surprise that this is what
we are seeing once again with some runs of the HRRR showing
amounts as high as 9 inches in spots. We are also seeing the
location of these highest amounts waver from as far north as
Spokane and surrounding areas to as far south as Pullman. The
general consensus is for southeastern WA and the lower Idaho
Panhandle generally along and south of I-90 to be the locations
of greatest concern. This is supported by the highest
probabilities for >2" of snow with HREF showing 40-70%, very
respectable but also not to lose focus of the 10-30% chances
that it does fall outside these areas as far north as Deer Park,
Wellpinit, or west near Ritzville.

As this system is tracking inland overnight and pulling in richer
theta-e air along the surface trough from the south through the
Palouse, colder, modified arctic air is being pulled in from
the north through the Okanogan Valley and Purcell Trench of
north Idaho. This is creating a strengthening pressure gradient
and will result in gusty north winds for Oroville, Omak, and
spilling into the Grand Coulee area. Northeast winds will also
pick up for locations like Bonners Ferry and Sandpoint. This
will assist with maintaining spinning of a surface low through
the Palouse-Spokane-Cd`A which could stall for several hours
before weakening. This low level convergence coupled with the
steepening lapse rates (especially through the dendritic or ice
growth layer), and spiraling cyclonic nature of the
precipitation bands is what makes this challenging. If the
northeast winds are slower to materialize, I believe that is
where we start to realize some of the 10-30% chances for 2+
inches north of Spokane-Cd`A. All in all, most of E WA and N ID
should be prepared for a slow commute on Wednesday and potential
changes to the forecast as head into the overnight hours.
Confidence is moderate that there will be little to no impacts
for Central WA outside spotty light snow showers.

The cold trough will be over the region Thursday and begin to
migrate east on Friday. Thursday will bring a continuation of
hit or miss snow showers, some which could produce moderate snow
amounts over very small areas. Any showers could have impacts
to travel with rapidly changing road conditions.

Saturday-Tuesday: Ensembles are in good agreement of another deep
low taking residence off the coast. This will allow a shortwave
ridge axis to amplify along the spine of the Rockies.
Temperatures will moderate some and energy ejecting from the low
will continue to bring periods of mountain snow and mix or
rain/snow to the lowlands. At this time, Saturday looks to carry
the highest probabilities for dry conditions then look for
increasing chances for precipitation Sunday into early next
week. Those traveling over the passes should be prepared for
winter travel conditions. Any snow for the lowlands will likely
be confined to the Cascade valleys and near the Canadian border.
There is a 70% for the trough to eject inland on or around
Tuesday which will usher the next cold front through. We will
need to keep a close eye on Monday and Tuesday as this is
occurring for windy conditions. /sb
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&&

.AVIATION...
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00Z TAFS: A cold trough is moving into the region ushering
steepening lapse rates and increased risk for convective snow
showers. Widely scattered snow showers will impact GEG-SFF-COE-
SZT-63S (Colville) through 02-03z. MVFR stratus has been
stubborn to break apart in the Cascades and around EAT.
Following a break this evening, a more organized wave arrives
after 05z impacting SE WA and Idaho Panhandle through 18z and
likely to remain draped across far N Idaho and NE WA into 00z.
Heavier bands will be on smaller scales leading to a wide range
in snow accumulations over short distances. Potential amounts
vary from a few tenths to 4 inches for PUW, GEG, COE and 0 to 2
inches for SFF and LWS. There is a 10% chance for more than 4
inches around GEG and PUW. MVFR to IFR conditions will accompany
the snow, especially at PUW due to favorable wind patterns.
Gusty north winds will develop at OMK and reach MWH at lighter
intensities. NE winds will increase for SZT-COE. As this system
weakens THU afternoon, there is a renewed threat for additional
hit or miss convective snow showers region-wide.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
CAMS are indicating the stratus breaking around EAT but this
comes with low confidence given the time of day. By in large,
the greatest uncertainty comes with the precise placement and
intensity of the organized bands of snow overnight and how much
snow falls as LWS, PUW, GEG, SFF, and COE. Moderate to high
confidence for this feature to develop and track through SE WA
and N Idaho but a few miles could be the difference of 1 inch vs
4+ inches.
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
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&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        26  34  23  35  20  33 /  40  60  40  20  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  25  33  21  35  20  34 /  40  80  50  30  30  50
Pullman        27  32  22  34  23  33 /  70  80  30  40  40  50
Lewiston       31  40  26  39  27  39 /  60  70  20  20  20  30
Colville       22  34  19  34  14  32 /  20  40  40  20  10  20
Sandpoint      23  29  20  31  19  31 /  40  70  60  40  40  50
Kellogg        25  32  20  33  21  31 /  60  90  60  50  50  70
Moses Lake     26  40  24  38  21  37 /  10  10  10  20   0  10
Wenatchee      26  39  26  35  21  34 /  10  20  30  30   0  10
Omak           24  35  20  33  18  34 /  10  10  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
     Wednesday for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Spokane
     Area-Washington Palouse.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for Northeast
     Blue Mountains.
ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
     Wednesday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 PM PST
     Wednesday for Central Panhandle Mountains.

&&

$$