Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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000 FXUS66 KOTX 252156 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 256 PM PDT Sun Oct 25 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Today and Monday will be quite cold with temperatures more typical of December than late October. Look for a gradual warming trend this week with near average readings by the end of the week. Significant precipitation is not expected this week, but some flurries will be possible on Monday followed by better chances for light rain and mountain snow toward the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... ...RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT OVER NORTH IDAHO AND MUCH OF EASTERN WASHINGTON... Tonight: This evening will be mostly clear with light winds allowing temperatures to quickly tumble as the sun sets. Some locations across the Inland Northwest may experience their overnight lows by midnight or shortly thereafter. Lows in the teens will be common over north Idaho and the eastern third of Washington with a handful of single digit temperatures in our typical cold valley locations like Deer Park, Springdale, Prichard, and Republic. Bands of high clouds will increase overnight and will thicken by sunrise. This scenarios typically cause temperatures to rise a bit as clouds thicken. Despite the prospect of increasing clouds low to mid teens will be sufficient to set records. Records likely to fall: *Spokane International - forecast 14 (record 19 in 1978) *Lewiston ID - forecast 19 (record 23 in 1954) *Pullman WA - forecast 12 (record 19 in 2007) *Ephrata - forecast 18 (record 23 in 2011) Monday: The upper level disturbance expected to bring increasing clouds overnight will produce a good chance of flurries or light snow to the Idaho Panhandle and the eastern third of Washington on Monday. Folks monitoring the radar in the morning should see snow detected by radar aloft, but some of it may not reach the ground. Forecast sounding depict a good deal of dry air in the lowest 5000-7000ft of the atmosphere. Very few models are generating much measurable precipitation, but a few spots may add a dusting of accumulation on top of the snow already on the ground. With an abundance of clouds for much of the day, temperatures should be on the cool side of guidance Monday afternoon with low to mid 30s in the Panhandle and warmer in central Washington with low 40s in spots without much snow cover. Monday Night and Tuesday: Temperatures will begin to moderate by Tuesday. Clearing Monday night may yield enough radiational cooling for a few records to be threatened Tuesday morning, but bright sunshine and aggressive warming aloft during the day should push temperatures well above freezing in the afternoon. Places with several inches of snow on the ground should start to see some melting with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. /GKoch Sunday Night through Tuesday: The ridge pattern is expected to begin to breakdown on Sunday and model agreement is good on this scenario. The models are differing on the amount and timing of the trough pattern following the ridge breakdown. The GFS is producing a low off of California leading to a dryer and slower moving trough than the ECMWF. The forecast leans toward the higher precip possibilities and quicker trough of the ECMWF. This disturbance is expected to bring breezy winds. Temperatures will be slightly above the season normals. /JDC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Winds are relaxing this morning and will continue to decrease this afternoon as cold high pressure builds into the Inland Northwest. Dry north winds over the last 24 to 36 hours have scrubbed our low level moisture out of the region. We may see a bit of shallow fog late tonight around warm water bodies, but the majority of the region will have good visibility. Bands of high clouds will thicken toward Monday morning and the north Idaho Panhandle and far northeast Washington may experience a few flurries on Monday, but no precipitation has been included at the TAF sites trough 18z. /GKoch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 14 32 15 39 22 43 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 11 32 18 40 25 45 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 Pullman 12 32 16 43 24 48 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 19 36 26 47 32 52 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 14 39 15 42 19 43 / 10 10 0 0 0 10 Sandpoint 15 33 19 41 25 43 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 Kellogg 14 35 22 43 30 47 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 Moses Lake 18 37 18 44 24 49 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 24 41 28 45 33 50 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 19 41 23 43 30 44 / 0 10 0 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$

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