Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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332 FXUS66 KOTX 162251 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 351 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another round of showers will continue today over the Cascades and northern mountains. Temperatures will trend cooler into the start of early next week with the potential for frost in colder pockets Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the mountains will be possible each afternoon through midweek with gradual warming by late week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Monday night: Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the northern WA mountain and Cascades through this evening. Rain amounts will be less in these showers than what was seen yesterday with a few lightning strikes possible. Once sunset arrives, these showers will dissipate leaving the region with partly cloudy to overcast skies. High temperatures today will remain in the 50s and 60s, with overnight temperatures slightly warmer than what was seen last night. Monday will bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms for the eastern half of WA and ID Panhandle. These showers have a potential to be similar to Saturdays, with heavier rain and small hail. Best timing for these storms is between 1 PM and midnight, with showers moving southward. Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s, which will be the start of the warming trend for the week. /KM Tuesday through Sunday: Tuesday starts off with split flow composed of upper level ridging with axis over the British Columbia coast coupled with a trof to the south with its axis just out of phase to the east. The resulting somewhat cool northerly component to the flow on the east edge of the upper level ridge empties into Eastern Washington and North Idaho initially but this all gets displaced to the east as the ridge axis moves inland while the upper level trof in the southern branch of the split more or less remains in place. The resulting longwave ridging and/or sorta split flow looking area is then positioned over Eastern Washington and North Idaho and may allow for some disturbances to glance the area either as they propagate through either branches of the flow (either overtopping the ridge part to the north and/or thru the trof part to the south) so a minor mention of showers and thunderstorms remains in place Tuesday and Wednesday. Day 4 Clusters and beyond suggest a low pressure system is expected to deepen and intensify in the Gulf of Alaska and this will aid in pumping up and amplifying the ridging downstream and closer to Eastern Washington and North Idaho. So in addition to a continued warming trend the mention of precip for the remainder of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend is either considerably less in coverage or not mentioned with a dry forecast. /Pelatti && .AVIATION...
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00Z TAFS: Showers will continue into this evening to increase this afternoon with some embedded thunderstorms across NE WA and north ID. Showers have popped up near sites but have not passed over any sites. Showers will diminish this evening leaving overcast to partly cloudy skies overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence in continued VFR conditions through the day. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 41 69 44 70 45 77 / 0 40 30 30 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 40 67 44 66 44 75 / 10 30 50 50 10 0 Pullman 41 62 41 66 42 74 / 20 50 40 20 0 0 Lewiston 48 71 48 74 50 83 / 40 60 30 10 0 0 Colville 33 69 37 68 38 75 / 30 50 50 70 20 20 Sandpoint 38 66 43 62 42 70 / 20 50 70 80 30 20 Kellogg 43 60 46 61 45 72 / 20 60 60 60 10 10 Moses Lake 43 74 45 76 47 83 / 20 20 10 10 0 0 Wenatchee 48 71 49 76 52 80 / 30 20 0 10 0 0 Omak 43 75 45 76 47 81 / 40 40 20 30 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$