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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS66 KOTX 080457
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
957 PM PDT Wed Jun 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will climb into the 90s through mid week with little
relief overnight. Chances for slow moving thunderstorms capable
of heavy rain and gusty outflow winds will increase Wednesday and
into next weekend. Temperatures will be cooler and closer to
season average Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Very heavy rain with thunderstorms into Friday morning...

Tonight through Friday night: Wet interval with moisture,
disturbances, and instability moving up from the southeast and into
Eastern Washington and North Idaho. Best to probably utilize a
deterministic high resolution short term model to realize there is
adequate dynamics, including shear, to put together a common
operating picture which will include thunderstorms with a general
storm motion from southeast to northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Hail and
some gusty outflow cannot be ruled out but the most significant
hazard impact is likely to be the heavy rainfall with localized
rainfall rates exceeding one inch an hour. As such a flood watch for
flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall has been issued for much
of Eastern Washington and North Idaho. To further support the wet
and unsettled forecast WPC has us under a good portion of our
forecast area under an excessive rainfall outlook Thursday into
Friday morning. As far as the heat goes forecast high temps across
Eastern Washington and North Idaho have likely peaked today with
about one to 6 degrees of cooling, most apparent in far Southeast
Washington and North Idaho. More substantial cooling between 5 to
near 20 degrees is expected going into Friday as the debris clouds
from Thursday/Thursday night thunderstorms linger and/or drift
overhead. /Pelatti

Saturday through Wednesday: Though cooler than our current
mid-week temps, daytime highs for the weekend through early next
week are still forecast to remain well above normal. Sat/Sun about 5-
10 degrees above normal, 10-15 degrees above normal early next week.
While not as stormy as Thursday into Friday, the weekend will still
experience chances (20-60 percent in favored areas) for showers and
thunderstorms across the Inland Northwest, before high pressure
resumes influence across the northwest United States. Still, chances
for showers will persist next week for far NE WA and the ID
panhandle, though with daily chances of 15-30 percent or less. /KD

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
06Z TAFs: VFR conditions are expected to dominate, but clouds will
start to thicken and lower going into later Thursday from the
east/southeast. Increasing moisture and disturbances and
increassing instability will bring increasing showers, with
embedded thunderstorms. Overnight/Thursday morning a slight chance
for showers and a stray embedded thunderstorms will pass by
LWS/PUW and possibly slip near GEG/COE but confidence is only
about 20%. After 19-21Z the t-storms are forecast to begin
developing. The best chances intitially remain over the ID
Panhandle, but are expected to quickly increase ater 22-01Z and
migrates westward. The best potential for stronger t-storms around
places like GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS will be around 23-03Z (about
60-70% confidence). Precipitation then begins to expand west
toward places like MWH/EAT late, with best chances developing
after 02-06Z (into Thursday overnight into Friday AM). Some
thunderstorms are likely to contain heavy downpours, gusty winds
and the potential for some hail. While VFR conditions will
dominate, expect some brief MVFR vis/cigs with the heavier storms.
Confidence is such conditions passing a TAF site at any given
time is only about 5-15%. The potential is smaller toward MWH/EAT
where confidence is around 5%.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        91  63  87  63  77  57 /   0  20  50  70  70  30
Coeur d`Alene  91  63  86  63  77  57 /   0  20  70  80  70  50
Pullman        87  60  81  59  75  54 /  10  20  70  60  60  30
Lewiston       94  68  88  67  83  63 /  10  20  60  60  50  30
Colville       91  58  89  59  74  54 /   0  20  40  70  90  60
Sandpoint      89  62  86  62  74  57 /   0  20  60  80  90  60
Kellogg        87  65  83  62  73  60 /  20  20  70  90  80  50
Moses Lake     95  61  91  62  79  55 /   0   0  20  40  40  20
Wenatchee      94  68  93  64  77  59 /   0   0  20  40  40  20
Omak           95  62  95  65  76  60 /   0   0  20  50  70  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for
     Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho
     Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-
     Northern Panhandle.

WA...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for
     Central Chelan County-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan
     Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-
     Washington Palouse-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-
     Western Okanogan County.

&&

$$