889
FXUS66 KOTX 090438
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
938 PM PDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming and drying trend is forecast through the weekend.
Temperatures on Friday through the weekend will warm to the
highest values of the season so far, with high temperatures
reaching the 80s into the lower 90s for much of the region. The
weather pattern for early next week is uncertain, however odds
favor a cooling trend with increasing clouds, and a small chance
of precipitation for the Cascade Crest, extreme northeast
Washington, and the northern half of the Idaho Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday: Thicker high clouds across extreme
eastern WA and north Idaho will continue to thin and dissipate
through the evening hours. A ridge of high pressure is pushing
into the Pac NW and will warm our temperatures through the
weekend. Temperatures will peak Saturday across central WA in the
mid to upper 80s. Probabilities of 90 degrees or warmer along the
Highway 97 corridor from the Canadian border to around Wenatchee
is 75-85%. As you move onto the western Columbia Basin the
probabilities go down to 55-70%. Eastern WA and the ID Panhandle
have very similar temperatures for Saturday and Sunday - in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Sunday may be a couple degrees warmer than
what the NBM is suggesting as winds increase Sunday and we could
see good mixing. The winds Sunday are a result of the ridge
beginning to flatten and a potential wave moving into the region.
West to southwest winds generally 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to
25 mph can be expected in the afternoon and evening hours.

*Impacts: People not yet acclimated to these warm temperatures
 could experience issues outside in the heat this weekend. Also,
 river and lake temperatures remain cold...in the 40s to low 50s.
 Hypothermia and loss of muscle control can set in quickly when
 swimming in cold waters. Can`t argue it is going to be a
 beautiful weekend, but don`t want to hear of injury or worse from
 those not prepared.

Monday through Wednesday: Uncertainty enters the forecast as to if
the ridge retrogrades enough for a trough to slip into the NW from
Canada. Either way a more flat pattern with cooler temperatures is
forecast. Temperatures will be in the 70s, which is still 5 to 8
degrees above average for mid May. The current forecast is largely
dry with just a 20% chance across the mountainous terrain of the
Cascade crest and along the US/Canadian border. 15% of the
ensembles show a wave for Wednesday, and by Thursday 50% of the
ensembles are showing a trough over or approaching the area with
an increased chance of precipitaiton. /Nisbet

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. The thick high clouds across extreme eastern WA and north
ID are beginning to thin and will dissipate overnight. SKC
conditions Thursday morning with fair weather cu in the aftn. JW


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is high confidence for VFR conditions across all TAF sites.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  74  47  79  49  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  42  73  46  77  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        39  71  46  75  48  78 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       44  78  50  83  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       38  76  43  82  46  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      42  73  44  77  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        44  71  48  76  52  77 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     41  80  48  85  51  90 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      48  78  55  83  57  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           45  81  50  86  53  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$