Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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719
FXUS66 KOTX 191225
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
522 AM PDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will persist over the Inland Northwest
through the weekend and into early next week. This will deliver
mainly clear skies, light winds with chilly morning temperatures
and mild afternoon highs. A weak weather disturbance will try to
break down the ridge on Tuesday, however this system now looks too
weak to produce precipitation. A much better chance of
precipitation with a stronger system will arrive late Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Saturday night...The upper level ridge will return
with more intensity today behind yesterday`s weak upper level
disturbance. 500 mb heights are expected to rise today over the
region as the next trough digs off the coast. 500 mb heights could
reach their loftiest levels of the past week or so with values
exceeding 585 dm by afternoon. Strong subsidence will be
associated with the strong ridge and 850 mb temps respond with
1-2c of warming. While we might not realize all this heating near
the ground, most locations will be a little warmer than yesterday.
We still expect most valley locations to see highs in the 60s
which is around 4-8 degrees warmer than normal. Meanwhile winds
will remain light in the lowest parts of the atmosphere which
will limit dispersion potential of smoke or pollutants. Saturday`s
weather will largely be a repeat of todays weather however it
could be slightly milder with 850 mb temps going up another degree
or so. Much of the same is expected on Saturday as 850 mb temps
continue to slowly warm. fx

Sunday through Thursday: Models continue to show an upper ridge
dominating through Monday for a continuation of mostly clear skies,
light winds, cool mornings, and mild afternoons with highs mainly in
the 60s. The ridge begins to shift east on Tuesday but dry
conditions should prevail as a weakening front moves into western
Washington. The front moves into Eastern WA Tuesday night and then
north Idaho Wednesday but continues to weaken as it stretches.
Models continue to trend drier with little to rain with this
feature. A stronger wave enters Wednesday night and Thursday as a
120-140 kt zonal jet becomes aimed at the area. This will likely
bring rain and high mountain snow to the Cascades, mountains of NE
Washington as well as the Idaho Panhandle with a chance of rain
elsewhere. Breezy conditions are also possible. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: High pressure will bring VFR conditions to all forecast
sites through Sat morning. The only weather at the TAF sites will be
variable light winds and variable high clouds. Other concern will be
patchy fog over extreme NE Washington and north Idaho which should
remain well NE of the TAF sites and will burn off before midday
today. fx


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  40  65  40  66  42 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  64  38  66  38  66  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        67  41  69  41  69  42 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       68  45  70  45  71  44 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       64  35  65  35  67  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      60  36  61  36  64  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        63  38  65  39  67  38 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     66  37  67  37  67  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      65  43  66  43  67  44 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           64  40  65  39  66  36 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for East Slopes
     Northern Cascades-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area.


&&

$$



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