Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000 FXUS64 KOUN 050456 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1056 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 916 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Radar showing some echoes moving into western parts of the area due to some weak mid-level WAA. Most of the activity in the fa will likely not reach the ground but can not rule out a sprinkle so have put a mention in the forecast. Otherwise, still looks like the chances for rain will begin this afternoon in parts of western OK and spread across the area this evening. A few strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 206 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Closed upper low over the CO Rockies will continue to move east and southeast across OK tonight into Friday morning. Meanwhile, a sfc low will also move across the Panhandles into southwest OK and then N TX. This system will bring a chance for rain and a few storms to the area this afternoon into Friday with the highest chances across northern parts of the fa. Drier air moving into parts of the area with this system will limit rain chances some in southern parts of the fa. A few of the storms late this afternoon and evening could become strong to severe. Breezy N to NE winds are expected Friday as the sfc low exits the area. Cooler air moving into the area, along with clouds and rain will also lead to at or slightly below normal temperatures Friday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 307 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 High surface pressure will settle in Friday night. With clear night skies and light wind on the backside of the cold front, strong radiational cooling will bring temperatures back down into the 30s across much of our area, bringing the freezing line only down to far northwest Oklahoma. The high pressure will move off to the east on Saturday, bringing a gradual return of warmer south winds. With a ridge building overhead, afternoon temperatures will warm back to seasonably average (lower 60s), and will kick off the start of a warming trend to last through the middle of next week. A deepening surface low moving across central Canada will continue tightening the pressure gradient extending through the central U.S. from the Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region down through the Southern Plains. A surface high across the eastern U.S. feeding into the aforementioned Canadian low will result in increasing southerly winds and rather windy conditions beginning Sunday mainly across northwest Oklahoma and expanding more widespread across our entire forecast area from Monday through Wednesday. The NBM was a bit weak with the increasing windspeeds, so used a more robust CONSMOS solution in the wind grids from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night. With a fairly strong vertical mixing off the surface into a strengthening low level jet Monday night, would not be surprised to see 40+ mph wind gusts and a Wind Advisory come into effect on Tuesday and perhaps an advisory on Wednesday as well. By mid-week, our southwest flow aloft will be increasing as three of the medium-range models generally agree bringing a large amplitude trough down the Pacific coast into Southern California. The southerly flow from earlier in the week will result in a strong return of gulf based surface and low-level moisture transport, with both ECMWF and GFS developing a sharp dryline across our far west with upper 50 degree dewpoints on the moist side. Could see some rain develop Wednesday afternoon across eastern Oklahoma but chances for showers and thunderstorms across our area will be overnight Wednesday into Thursday as a weak cold front is expected to push through. The strong south winds and dry air across the Texas Panhandle will increase the fire danger across far western Oklahoma during the afternoons of Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021 Area of RA with isolated TSRA will expected to continue across north-central Oklahoma overnight, then spread southward toward and after 12Z as upper low sinks southward over the region. MVFR conditions will first begin across northern Oklahoma first 3 to 6 hours of forecast and spread southward through the forecast period. Winds toward 12Z will increase from the north and expected to strong and gusty most of the day. Cigs expected to go to VFR during the afternoon across northern Oklahoma and slow improvement will spread south through the end of the forecast. Northerly winds will decrease late tomorrow afternoon into the evening, first across northern Oklahoma then lastly at KSPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 47 56 37 60 / 80 30 0 0 Hobart OK 43 58 36 63 / 60 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 45 61 39 63 / 20 10 0 0 Gage OK 41 58 33 63 / 50 60 0 0 Ponca City OK 47 59 35 61 / 80 60 0 0 Durant OK 49 61 41 62 / 40 30 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....68 AVIATION...11 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.