-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
447
FXUS64 KOUN 131143
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
643 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
-- Changed Discussion --
Updated at 642 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - Rain chances shift east today. Locally heavy rainfall still
   possible across southeastern Oklahoma.

 - Warming trend this week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The mid-level trough is shifting east and has pushed much of the
precipitation to the east of the area. With the trough axis in the
vicinity, we likely will see redevelopment of showers and storms
today, mainly across the east. Precipitable water values are
still forecast to be 1.5 to 2.0 inches across the eastern half of
the area, so heavy rainfall will remain possible. But drier mid-
level air is filtering into the area on the back side of the mid-
level trough, with precipitable water values down to closer to one
inch. With lower chances of rain in the west and lower PW values
in the west, we have cancelled the Flood Watch across western and
central sections, but keeping it near and east of a Seminole to
Madill line.

The mid-level trough is now forecast to keep migrating east,
although somewhat slowly, with rain chances decreasing from west
to east today and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A number of models (especially NAM, HRRR, ARW) suggest the
potential of a mid-level circulation to move northeast from the
Texas Hill County toward southeast Oklahoma late tonight into
early Monday, so the potential of showers and storms increase
again Monday morning across southeast Oklahoma. But precipitation
chances decrease through the day. The NAM shows a strong enough
circulation and a slow enough movement that it would suggest storm
chances linger into Monday evening across the southeast, but this
is an outlier solution and may be suffering from convective
feedback so will not deviate from NBM at this point, but will
watch trends in upcoming model runs.

Although the mid-level ridge does not build strongly behind this
exiting system, heights do rise and with fewer clouds and less
precipitation into Tuesday, forecast temperatures do begin to
rise closer to average values for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

It still appears that no strong upper ridge builds into the
western U.S. or the Plains. Flow aloft generally remains zonal
over the Plains. Medium range models do show a surface front
approaching or moving into northern Oklahoma on Wednesday night
in response to a wave moving across the Northern Plains. This will
give us the best chance of showers/storms in northern Oklahoma
this week. 500 mb heights are forecast to rise late in the week,
so temperatures will likely trend warmer Friday/Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

There are areas of IFR ceilings this morning. These ceilings are
most widespread across central and north central Oklahoma and more
scattered elsewhere. These will persist for a few hours this
morning before ceilings lift later this morning.

Showers and thunderstorms today will be most likely across
southeastern Oklahoma including KDUA. The chances for showers and
storms are not zero at most other TAF sites late this morning and
this afternoon, but the probability is too low for PROB30 groups.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  85  69  88  71 /  20  10  20  10
Hobart OK         90  69  92  71 /   0  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  89  71  91  73 /  20  20  20  10
Gage OK           87  66  92  68 /   0   0   0  10
Ponca City OK     85  67  88  69 /  20   0  10  10
Durant OK         86  72  89  72 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ031-032-042-043-047-048-
     051-052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...26