National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KOUN 050456
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1056 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 AM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

Radar showing some echoes moving into western parts of the area
due to some weak mid-level WAA. Most of the activity in the fa
will likely not reach the ground but can not rule out a sprinkle
so have put a mention in the forecast. Otherwise, still looks like
the chances for rain will begin this afternoon in parts of western
OK and spread across the area this evening. A few strong to severe
storms will be possible late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

Closed upper low over the CO Rockies will continue to move east and
southeast across OK tonight into Friday morning. Meanwhile, a sfc
low will also move across the Panhandles into southwest OK and then
N TX. This system will bring a chance for rain and a few storms to
the area this afternoon into Friday with the highest chances across
northern parts of the fa. Drier air moving into parts of the area
with this system will limit rain chances some in southern parts of
the fa. A few of the storms late this afternoon and evening could
become strong to severe.

Breezy N to NE winds are expected Friday as the sfc low exits the
area. Cooler air moving into the area, along with clouds and rain
will also lead to at or slightly below normal temperatures Friday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

High surface pressure will settle in Friday night.  With clear night
skies and light wind on the backside of the cold front, strong
radiational cooling will bring temperatures back down into the 30s
across much of our area, bringing the freezing line only down to far
northwest Oklahoma.  The high pressure will move off to the east on
Saturday, bringing a gradual return of warmer south winds.  With a
ridge building overhead, afternoon temperatures will warm back to
seasonably average (lower 60s), and will kick off the start of a
warming trend to last through the middle of next week.  A deepening
surface low moving across central Canada will continue tightening
the pressure gradient extending through the central U.S. from the
Northern Plains and Great Lakes Region down through the Southern
Plains. A surface high across the eastern U.S. feeding into the
aforementioned Canadian low will result in increasing southerly
winds and rather windy conditions beginning Sunday mainly across
northwest Oklahoma and expanding more widespread across our entire
forecast area from Monday through Wednesday.  The NBM was a bit weak
with the increasing windspeeds, so used a more robust CONSMOS
solution in the wind grids from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday
night.  With a fairly strong vertical mixing off the surface into a
strengthening low level jet Monday night, would not be surprised to
see 40+ mph wind gusts and a Wind Advisory come into effect on
Tuesday and perhaps an advisory on Wednesday as well.

By mid-week, our southwest flow aloft will be increasing as three of
the medium-range models generally agree bringing a large amplitude
trough down the Pacific coast into Southern California.  The
southerly flow from earlier in the week will result in a strong
return of gulf based surface and low-level moisture transport, with
both ECMWF and GFS developing a sharp dryline across our far west
with upper 50 degree dewpoints on the moist side.  Could see some
rain develop Wednesday afternoon across eastern Oklahoma but chances
for showers and thunderstorms across our area will be overnight
Wednesday into Thursday as a weak cold front is expected to push
through.

The strong south winds and dry air across the Texas Panhandle will
increase the fire danger across far western Oklahoma during the
afternoons of Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM CST Thu Mar 4 2021

Area of RA with isolated TSRA will expected to continue across
north-central Oklahoma overnight, then spread southward toward
and after 12Z as upper low sinks southward over the region. MVFR
conditions will first begin across northern Oklahoma first 3 to 6
hours of forecast and spread southward through the forecast
period. Winds toward 12Z will increase from the north and expected
to strong and gusty most of the day. Cigs expected to go to VFR
during the afternoon across northern Oklahoma and slow improvement
will spread south through the end of the forecast. Northerly
winds will decrease late tomorrow afternoon into the evening,
first across northern Oklahoma then lastly at KSPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  47  56  37  60 /  80  30   0   0
Hobart OK         43  58  36  63 /  60  10   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  45  61  39  63 /  20  10   0   0
Gage OK           41  58  33  63 /  50  60   0   0
Ponca City OK     47  59  35  61 /  80  60   0   0
Durant OK         49  61  41  62 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....68
AVIATION...11