322
FXUS64 KOUN 050458
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1158 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A complex of thunderstorms is expected to move across portions of
western north Texas and southern Oklahoma tonight into early
Sunday morning. There could also be additional storms that form
along a stalled cold front along and south of I-44 this evening.
In both of these scenarios, large hail and damaging winds will be
the main threats. Given training storms overnight and PWAT values
between 1.25 and 1.5 inches across southern Oklahoma and western
north Texas, there are flooding concerns in the aforementioned
areas. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow
morning, moving eastward and out of the area by the afternoon.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Monday: Severe weather, potentially significant severe storms,
are expected Monday afternoon and evening as a negatively-tilted
mid- level trough moves across the Plains Monday afternoon. There
still is uncertainty in regards to the overall setup, however. For
example, there is disagreement in the location of the dryline,
magnitude of capping, and when height falls are forecast to
overspread western Oklahoma between the ensembles. Nevertheless,
the open warm sector will be characterized by sufficient
instability owing to steep mid-level lapse rates, curved and long
hodographs, and plenty of orthogonally-oriented deep-layer shear
relative to the dryline. All of these thermodynamic and kinematic
profiles could support very large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a
few strong tornadoes. Confidence in the overall evolution will
get better the closer to the event.

Tuesday: Could see a lull in activity Tuesday as the main wave
moves off to the east.

Wednesday: A cold front will move in Wednesday morning and will
make it to southeastern Oklahoma by the afternoon. Dewpoints
ahead of the cold front are expected to be in the mid to upper
60s. A shortwave will round the base of the main mid-level trough,
and will move across the southern Plains. Thunderstorms are
expected along this boundary in the afternoon and evening
timeframe. Given the shear and instability, a few severe storms
are possible as well across the southeastern portions of the area
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Through the rest of the week, it seems as though for now we will
see a lull in thunderstorm activity.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MVFR cigs expected for much of forecast, at least through 18Z most
terminals. Area of SHRA/TSRA will spread from west to east across
the region first 6 to 9 hours of forecast. IFR conditions still
appear likely post rain with slowly lifting cigs through the day
tomorrow with moist east and southeast flow developing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  58  71  61  79 /  90  80  10  50
Hobart OK         56  73  61  84 /  90  40  20  40
Wichita Falls TX  61  76  64  84 / 100  50  10  30
Gage OK           51  73  57  87 /  60  40  10  30
Ponca City OK     54  70  59  80 /  70  80  20  60
Durant OK         64  75  64  81 /  90  80  10  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>013-
     018>020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...11