938
FXUS64 KOUN 130350
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1050 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

One round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a mid-
level jet streak embedded in the subtropical jet continues to move
to the east this afternoon across southern into eastern Oklahoma.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also developing in the
wake of this complex across northwest into west central Oklahoma
in association with an approaching mid/upper-level low. Effective
bulk shear of 30 to 40 knots and elevated instability of ~500 to
1000 J/kg will favor hail with the most intense thunderstorms.

These showers and thunderstorms will continue develop tonight as
a mid/upper-level low moves eastward across Kansas in tandem with
a strengthening low-level jet. The potential hazards are hail and
heavy rainfall that may lead to localized flooding. The most
likely area the receive the heaviest rainfall overnight is across
the northern half of Oklahoma. HREF guidance indicates that
isolated locations may see 2" of rainfall or more (using the
ensemble maximum as a proxy for locally higher amounts).

By tomorrow morning, a northwest wind shift will advance to the
southeast as the upper-level moves eastward. Any ongoing
thunderstorms would move southward into central into east central
Oklahoma with the wind shift. Eventually, the chance of storms
will move into southeast Oklahoma by Monday afternoon as the wind
shift continues to advance to the southeast. Instability and shear
will remain favorable for low-end severe potential, which will
include the potential for hail and gusty winds.

Mahale

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

By Tuesday, mid-level heights will rise as the mid/upper-level low
moves toward the Midwest. Dry conditions are expected across
Oklahoma and north Texas.

By late Wednesday into Thursday, another trough will approach the
Southern Plains with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The
system has trended slower, so the chance for rain will persist
through at least Friday morning. While vertical wind shear appears
sufficient for severe weather, the amount of instability remains
uncertain as widespread convection may temper its magnitude. Heavy
rainfall/localized flooding may also be a hazard given the slow
exit of the system.

Mahale

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

The first round of showers and thunderstorms is moving through
north central and central Oklahoma affecting areas around KPNC,
KSWO, KOKC and perhaps KOUN. The second round is moving into
northwestern Oklahoma this evening and we may still see additional
development farther south overnight. Even apart from the showers
and thunderstorms, we have widespread low clouds with MVFR and IFR
ceilings. Areas of MVFR and IFR will continue into Monday morning
before ceilings begin to rise and VFR conditions becoming more
widespread through the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  60  77  56  80 /  80  40  10   0
Hobart OK         58  79  53  83 /  50  20   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  62  82  56  83 /  40  20   0   0
Gage OK           51  76  48  84 /  70  20   0   0
Ponca City OK     59  74  55  79 /  90  60  20  10
Durant OK         63  82  59  82 /  50  40  10   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...26