Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000 FXUS63 KPAH 021117 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 517 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 246 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Well we finally have a completely dry forecast for today and tonight with an upper low passing well to our south. Model guidance is now unanimous in keeping the area dry, and in fact, there will not be much increase in clouds either. Another storm system will follow a similar path next Friday and may lead to some increase in clouds over southeast Missouri by late Thursday night. Tried to stay near the middle ground of the range of temperature guidance through the short term. We may have trended slightly cooler today, and then a bit warmer for lows tonight. With west southwest winds expected Wednesday ahead of a weak cold front, temperatures have trended higher with most places now expected to climb above 60 degrees. That boundary will struggle to push through the southwest half of the region Thursday, so some lower 60s are expected over much of southeast Missouri and the Purchase Area of Kentucky. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday) Issued at 246 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Models show a low pressure system over east Texas on Friday, sliding into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night. Model ensembles indicate precipitation associated with this system will remain just southwest of our region on Friday, and well south of our area Friday night. There are a couple of model outliers that try to bring some precipitation into portions of southeast Missouri, so ending up with a few sprinkles is not out of the question, but the main effect with this system will be in an increase in clouds across much of our region Friday. Surface high pressure will gradually slide south out of Canada over the weekend as an upper level ridge builds to our west. We will see dry and seasonable conditions on Saturday. By Sunday and Sunday night, winds will become southerly, and this will push temperatures to around 5 degrees above normal. On Monday, increasing south winds will push readings to around 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION... Issued at 517 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021 Surface high pressure will be in control across the region through the period. VFR conditions are forecast with light and variable winds. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DRS SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...RST AVIATION...DRS

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