Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221848
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
148 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

A weak surface trof will be pushed farther off to the southeast
tonight through the remainder of the short term period as a
mid/upper level high pressure system builds east toward and
through the middle and upper MS River Valley. Will lead to a
continuation of the unseasonably warm weather right Through
Thursday, but light northeast breezes Wed, turning more easterly
of Thursday should bring humidity levels down to more comfortable
levels and lead to some cooler nights across the quad state
region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Models are in decent agreement through 00z Saturday. Prior to that
time an upper level ridge is centered over the area and will keep us
dry and very warm.

By late Friday the ridge begins to break down as the system over the
Gulf strengthens. In the upper levels a trough develops along the
Mississippi River down to the system in the Gulf. Again, all the
models agree on that, but after this time the models diverge.

By 12z Sunday the surface system along the Gulf is over northern
Florida in the GFS, over Mississippi in the ECMWF, and over the
northern Gulf just south of New Orleans in the Canadian. This
location difference is pretty big when it comes to the moisture
distribution from this system. Potential for locally heavy rain is
there with the solutions farther west, while the GFS would suggest
heavier rain going up the east coast.

Ensemble tables not showing a large increase in moisture from normal
at this time, so will hold off the heavy rain potential for now.
Above normal temperatures/heights will continue through the period.
Essentially scattered showers and thunderstorms through the holiday
weekend, but does not look like a washout at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

After some VFR sct CU this afternoon, skies should be generally
clear. Winds will be light, less than 10 kts, westerly this
afternoon then light northeast on Wed.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...GM



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