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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 182359
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
759 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and warmer Monday will follow this evenings scattered rain
showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
No appreciable changes was needed for the late-day update as
scattered light showers have developed with the encroachment of a
shortwave in weak flow. Only a trace to possibly a tenth of an inch
of rain is expected with these given convective weakness and moisture
paucity.

Showers are expected later this eve as the sfc cools and as the
supporting shortwave slides eastward. Residual cloud cover, slow
progression, and neutral temperature advection will result in lows
near the calculated-normals which are 41F at PIT and 42F at MGW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Shortwave ridging on the flank of Hudson Bay-to-Great Lakes long wave
troughing is expected to maintain dry weather and seasonable
temperature for Monday. Thereafter, shortwave energy digging toward
the northern Plains is progged to amplifly flow with veering wind and
cold frontal encroachment for the Upr OH Valley for Tuesday and
Wednesday. A dry and seasonable Tuesday is thus expected to give way
to increasing rain chance by nightfall with a damp and cold
Wednesday to follow. There remains a chance for a change, or mix with
snow as subfreezing air invades the top of the boundary layer on
Wednesday. Relative warmth at the sfc wl preclude accumulation
potentail.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A return to zonal flow is progged for the latter half of the week as
the aforementioned trough is filled/jet-pulled eastward. Expect a
return to seasonable temperature with shortwave-dependant shower
chance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
General VFR can be expected with high-based showers over the area in
association with the encroachment of a weak shortwave, trough. With
20 to 25 degree temperature/dewpoint spreads, any visibility
restriction wl be brief.

Overnight VFR should only be interrupted by some lcl fog and maybe a
brief period of near-dawn MVFR cigs at DUJ given continued upslope
flow.

Building high pres wl ensure VFR for the remainder of the TAF pd.

.Outlook...
Restrictions are likely Tuesday night and Wednesday with the
encroachment and passage of a cdfnt.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$