Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 182359 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 759 PM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A dry and warmer Monday will follow this evenings scattered rain showers. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... No appreciable changes was needed for the late-day update as scattered light showers have developed with the encroachment of a shortwave in weak flow. Only a trace to possibly a tenth of an inch of rain is expected with these given convective weakness and moisture paucity. Showers are expected later this eve as the sfc cools and as the supporting shortwave slides eastward. Residual cloud cover, slow progression, and neutral temperature advection will result in lows near the calculated-normals which are 41F at PIT and 42F at MGW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Shortwave ridging on the flank of Hudson Bay-to-Great Lakes long wave troughing is expected to maintain dry weather and seasonable temperature for Monday. Thereafter, shortwave energy digging toward the northern Plains is progged to amplifly flow with veering wind and cold frontal encroachment for the Upr OH Valley for Tuesday and Wednesday. A dry and seasonable Tuesday is thus expected to give way to increasing rain chance by nightfall with a damp and cold Wednesday to follow. There remains a chance for a change, or mix with snow as subfreezing air invades the top of the boundary layer on Wednesday. Relative warmth at the sfc wl preclude accumulation potentail. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A return to zonal flow is progged for the latter half of the week as the aforementioned trough is filled/jet-pulled eastward. Expect a return to seasonable temperature with shortwave-dependant shower chance. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... General VFR can be expected with high-based showers over the area in association with the encroachment of a weak shortwave, trough. With 20 to 25 degree temperature/dewpoint spreads, any visibility restriction wl be brief. Overnight VFR should only be interrupted by some lcl fog and maybe a brief period of near-dawn MVFR cigs at DUJ given continued upslope flow. Building high pres wl ensure VFR for the remainder of the TAF pd. .Outlook... Restrictions are likely Tuesday night and Wednesday with the encroachment and passage of a cdfnt. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$

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