Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 251839 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 239 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure brings dry weather for Thursday before rain chances return with Friday low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Light rain showers associated with a upper trough are moving through the forecast area. Will continue to carry scattered showers for most, with widespread mention north and east. Expansive cloud cover evident on satellite will continue through the afternoon/evening, keeping temperatures in check. Highs will likely top out just below average. The trough shifts east of the area tonight and west flow will advect much drier air in. This will quickly end any remaining showers and begin to scatter out low clouds that remain. The exception will be in the higher elevations where lingering moisture would keep low clouds and even drizzle in consideration through the early pre-dawn. Lows tonight will be a few degrees below averages. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Short wave ridging and a brief spell of high pressure at the surface will keep the area dry Thursday. A slow moving southern stream system will move up the Mid-Atlantic Thursday night. Models differ slightly on the exact track as it turns the corner and begins to phase with the broader trough. This track will play a vital role in just how far west the precipitation shield will come. Will carry a blend, but will favor the easternmost models (NAM, EC). Regardless, rain chances will increase later in the day Friday and Friday night as the broader trough axis crosses the area. This will also usher in cooler than average temperatures for the early part of the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High confidence through the extended period as the rainy and cool end of the week gives way to a warm and dry trend. High pressure will begin to build at the surface late Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring an end to precipitation chances and establish clearing sky. Temperatures will temporarily be held in check Sunday with lingering northwest flow aloft, but this will quickly change heading into the middle of next week. A building ridge will pass to our east by Tuesday evening enhancing warming with southwest flow. Highs will soar into at least the mid and upper 70s by Wednesday. The next appreciable chance of precipitation will come by late next week. && .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low MVFR will drop to IFR on the backside of a crossing front this afternoon. Visibility restrictions in scattered showers will be brief but IFR cigs look slow to improve...especially KPIT and north where IFR looks likely to persist overnight based off latest soundings. General improvement is expected through Thursday morning. OUTLOOK... The next chance for general restrictions is expected with the crossing of weak low pressure on Friday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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