Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241735 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 135 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of rain through Wednesday with temperatures below normal. High pressure returns sunshine and dry weather Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... No changes to ongoing forecast other than to tweak hourly T/Tds. Warm conveyor belt rain ahead of an approaching low over the Tennessee valley has engulfed the region. Rain will continue through the midday hours then a dry slot will move overhead. This will make precip more off an on. Tailored pops to account for this during the mid and late afternoon hours from south to north. With east- southeast wind, this will keep rain rates low and allow boundary layer not to become saturated. Shallow serly downsloping flow should continue to result in wind gusts of 25-35kt on the lee of the ridges, though the highest winds are progged to remain capped above a temperature inversion. Lesser gusts are expected elsewhere. Temperatures are expected to average a few degrees below seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Low pressure riding up the eastern seaboard will be departing Wednesday night. Precip will taper off from southwest to northeast. It may take until Thursday morning before QPF leaves Jefferson county PA . The column cools which could lead to wet snow mixing in closer to dawn north of I-80 Thursday morning. As of now, any accumulation will be on the grass, since there could be a decent rate which would allow snow to accumulate. High pressure pays a quick visit Thursday into Friday morning before the next in a series of troughs moves overhead. Differences on the track of low pressure and ability for northern and southern branches to phase leads to below average confidence for Friday. GEPS and GEFS keep surface cyclone east of the mountains, which still would spread measurable QPF to a good part of the area save for eastern Ohio. However there are some operational members that have trended toward systems not phasing thus bringing low pressure up the windward side of the Appalachians. This would still result in measurable rainfall, however it will be much more expansive and cover the entire forecast area. Either way, the system is moving at a decent clip, so no flooding is foreseen. Temperatures will be below normal the entire short term. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Highlights: - Below normal temps this weekend - Damp Saturday north of US 422 - Dry and warm next week Yet another full latitude trough develops over the eastern CONUS. This will funnel in below normal temperatures Saturday and Sunday as H8 temp plunge back below zero. The mid level energy will generate showers mainly north of US 422 on Saturday, however it would not be surprising to see pops get extended further south if the trough is stronger than presently forecast. No ptype issues at this juncture given precip onset time. In addition, the amount of warm air in the lowest few thousand feet should offset cold temps 5KFT and above. Once the trough departs late Sunday high pressure builds as do H5 heights. This will make temperatures jump early next week to above normal. With southwest winds at the surface and H8 temps progged around 12C, would not be surprised to see lower 80s across northern West Virginia next Tuesday. There are some timing questions regarding the next weather system at the very end of the forecast, however that can be hashed out with Wednesday`s shift as it becomes the new day 7. So if you are looking for spring weather, you will like the forecast as we head back to work next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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There is a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions across the forecast area through the early afternoon hours, and MVFR conditions are expected to spread across the rest of the area today with light rain continuing. Some IFR ceilings will begin to appear late tonight, even as showers become spottier. Some isolated locations will once again gust to between 15 and 25 knots through the afternoon, mainly out of the east and southeast, before diminishing after sunset. OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR conditions are likely through Wednesday for all sites with slow moving low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.