Area Forecast Discussion
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402 FXUS61 KPBZ 232340 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 740 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The forecast calls for a cold but dry weekend. The chance for rain returns to the forecast Monday night and Tuesday and continues through the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Building high pressure at the surface will maintain dry weather in the cool northwest flow regime. Stratocu streaming downwind of the Great Lakes will be stubborn tonight, not fully dissipating after sunset normally seen in these set-ups. The reason for this is re-inforcement of cool low- to mid-level air over the relatively warm Lake Erie surface. Still, enough dissipation should occur to allow for a downward trend in the overall sky cover forecast. Resultant cloud cover will play a role overnight lows, which are generally expected to be some 10 degrees below averages. The well advertised low pressure system passing south of the region continues to trend even farther south. The GFS, NAM, and ECMWF all show precipitation remaining south of the region, with only the SREF showing precipitation in Tucker County. Therefore, have removed all pops in collaboration with neighboring offices. Despite a little bit less cloud cover, temperatures will only rise an additional one or two degrees compared to today.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue to build across the eastern Great Lakes along with an upper level ridge. This should allow dry conditions to persist. While Sunday`s high temperatures will be similar to Saturday`s values, highs on Monday should be 5 to 10 degrees warmer. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A slow moving cold front will be the major player in the extended forecast. While the GFS and ECMWF differ in the timing on how long the front will take to move through the region, both are coming into better agreement that the front will come through mid week, with another wave of low pressure developing along the front and moving northeast by the end of the week. Added likely pops to the forecast by Wednesday with decent model agreement during that time period, but did not have enough confidence to add likely pops at any other time, although this will be needed at some point. Highs should be more seasonable during the work week, with highs in the 50s most of the time. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Ongoing cold advection off of Lake Erie will maintain VFR stratocumulus into the evening hours, but coverage will slowly wane, and clouds should generally scatter out overnight. VFR conditions will continue thereafter, with a system passing to our south on Saturday perhaps pushing some mid and high clouds into areas south of Pittsburgh. Northwest wind at 10 knots or less tonight will veer towards the northeast on Saturday. OUTLOOK... The next chance of general restrictions may arrive by Tuesday with a cold front.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.