Area Forecast Discussion
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128 FXUS61 KPBZ 240530 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 130 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic rain chances are expected through mid week with slow moving low pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... An initial shortwave in srly flow ahead of TN Valley low should result in light rain chances overnight. Dewpoints should continue to increase as this initial wave and moisture saturate the mid and lower levels. Increased POPs for light rain with sfc observations S of PIT showing a trace to a couple of hundredths of accumulation. With clouds in place lows should be 5-10 degrees above average. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Better rain chances are expected Tue with increasing deep- layer moisture and dynamic support as the closed upper low drifts newd, despite downsloping, shallow sely low-level flow. The sely wind is expected to become gusty on the lee side of the ridges, though model sounding progs indicate the strongest winds capped above an inversion with gusts of 20-30 kt expected. Although the closed low will decay into an open wave, new models suggest that the wave may not phase as effectively as previously thought with an approaching nrn-stream wave. As a result, there may come a precipitation gap in wrn PA Tue night before greater coverage returns with the arrival of the nrn wave on Wed. By Wed afternoon, moisture will be shunted ewd, with any rain showers quickly shifting to the ridges and nrn lake-enhancement zones. Lowering inversion heights and eroding moisture should lead to a rapid decrease in precipitation. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The last in a series of shortwave troughs will impact the region on Fri as it drives a cold front across the Great Lakes. Increasing rain chances can be expected to end the work week, but the track of the wave may preclude a widespread wet day. Thereafter, an overall pattern shift appears to be in the offing, with a strong wrn-CONUS trough and amplifying ern-CONUS ridge. This pattern of rising heights and a strengthening upper ridge spells a general warming trend for the region, with dry wx and a return to seasonal temperature over the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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VFR conditions will continue through the night, with pockets of mostly light rain continuing. Clouds will slowly lower with time as the lower atmosphere moistens. MVFR conditions will develop from south to north after sunrise at most terminals as steadier rain arrives, and continue through the day. Some IFR ceilings may begin to creep in prior to 06Z Wednesday, even as rain becomes spottier. Winds will once again gust to between 15 and 25 knots from late morning through the afternoon, mainly out of the east and southeast, before diminishing after sunset. OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR conditions are likely through Wednesday for all sites with slow moving low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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