Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241410 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1010 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Periods of rain through Wednesday with temperatures below normal. High pressure returns sunshine and dry weather Thursday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Warm conveyor belt rain ahead of an approaching low over the Tennessee valley has engulfed the region. Rain will continue through the midday hours then a dry slot will move overhead. This will make precip more off an on. Tailored pops to account for this during the mid and late afternoon hours from south to north. With east- southeast wind, this will keep rain rates low and allow boundary layer not to become saturated. Shallow serly downsloping flow should continue to result in wind gusts of 25-35kt on the lee of the ridges, though the highest winds are progged to remain capped above a temperature inversion. Lesser gusts are expected elsewhere. Temperatures are expected to average a few degrees below seasonal levels.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Rain should taper off from S-N this eve as the best moisture and lift shift N of the area. The TN/OH Valley low is expected to open and become phased with a trough/upper low crossing the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley region Wed. Shower chances should continue until the passage of the trough axis in the afternoon. Another quick moving shortwave rotating around the low should continue low chances for showers Wed night. Building high pressure should return dry weather to the area Thursday and Thursday night. Below seasonal average temperatures are expected to continue. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Model ensembles and WPC progs indicate shower chances should return late Friday and part of Saturday with a trough crossing the Eastern CONUS. Dry weather and gradually warming temperatures are then expected for the rest of the forecast period under a building Eastern CONUS ridge. && .AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Conditions will likely start VFR, but light rain overspreading the area this morning will moisten the lower levels and allow clouds to slowly lower. MVFR conditions will develop from south to north this morning at most terminals as steadier rain arrives, and continue through the rest of the day. Some IFR ceilings will begin to appear late tonight, even as showers become spottier. Winds will once again gust to between 15 and 25 knots from late morning through the afternoon, mainly out of the east and southeast, before diminishing after sunset. OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR conditions are likely through Wednesday for all sites with slow moving low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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