Area Forecast Discussion
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950 FXUS61 KPBZ 220444 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1244 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather and a warming trend towards seasonable temperatures into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/... Main change was to lower dewpoints and raise min temps for the remainder of the night, as radiational cooling has been hindered by the thick deck of mid and high clouds over the region. The dry forecast continues through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Building high pressure will continue dry conditions and the warming trend in temperatures Sunday and most of Monday until low pressure currently over the central states begins to impact the region. Clouds will be on the increase and chances of precipitation will increase over the course of the night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models generally agree in lifting the upper low into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and degenerating it into an open wave as it crosses the Appalachians on Wednesday. Increasing moisture and isentropic lift will allow for rain through this period. PoPs/QPF are higher in the ridges than in areas to the west given the track of the shortwave. The models no longer phase this first wave with a followup northern stream disturbance, but there remains disagreement on the handling of the next couple of shortwaves rotating through yet another developing longwave trough. Kept some fairly general PoPs in the forecast through the week. Temperatures will generally remain near or several degrees below climatology. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Sfc high pressure should maintain VFR conditions through the TAF period as dry advection and ridging aloft gradually erode the mid level cloud cigs from N-S. OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are likely Mon night through Wed with slow moving low pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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