Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 162146 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 546 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and snow showers will linger tonight into Tuesday. Cool air and unsettled weather will remain in the region through much of the week before a return to near-average temperature over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
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Made only minor tweaks to most parameters at this time as the forecast is mostly on track. Stratiform precipitation has moved off to the northeast, and is being replaced by more convective activity as the upper low moves eastward over Ohio. One parameter that was changed/increased was wind gusts, given the present levels of 25-35 MPH. Also, gusty winds should continue into tomorrow given the persistent steep low level lapse rates allowing for continued mixing. Previous discussion... Cold advection in the wake of a closed upper low will promote a thermal profile becoming more favorable for a transition to snow this afternoon mainly in the ridges and the nern quadrant of the forecast area, and this evening in all locations where any precipitation does occur. Vacating stratiform precipitation will become more convective in nature as the cold air aloft exerts its influence, with nwly flow supporting lake-enhanced showers tonight and Tue. The warm ground and daytime temperature will preclude significant accumulation save in the ridges (where 1.5-3" can be expected tonight through Tue), and perhaps the nrn fringe of the forecast area (where 1-2" is forecasted). Dendritic growth does not appear to be optimized owing to most saturation/vertical motion remaining below the DSGZ. Scattered snow showers on Tue will wane quickly during the afternoon as flow backs to wly and loses its lake fetch.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A generally high-confidence forecast is indicated through late this week given uncharacteristic consistency among model ensembles. Shortwave ridging in advance of Plains low pressure briefly will modify temperature back toward seasonal averages for Wed. The aforementioned Plains low is progged to cross the Midwest and generate precipitation late Wed and Thu, with its cold surge dropping temperature below seasonal average again for the close of the work-week. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Another digging Plains low is expected to support Upper Ohio ridging with dry weather and seasonable warmth for next weekend. && .AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Prevailing conditions should be MVFR through the next 24 hours at all terminals except for FKL/DUJ, which could have some IFR ceilings during the overnight hours. Winds have been gusting at most sites this afternoon, although gusts will diminish overnight. Scattered showers will persist, changing from rain to snow overnight. OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with a Wed night/Thu cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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