Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240923 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 523 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Periodic rain chances are expected through mid week with slow moving low pressure. Dry weather should return Thursday under high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Vertically stacked low pressure should continue to drift east across the TN and lower OH Valley region today. Increasing deep layer moisture and shortwave support should result in periods of rain today, though QPF amounts should be less than 1/2 inch. Shallow serly downsloping flow should continue to result in wind gusts of 25-35kt on the lee of the ridges, though the highest winds are progged to remain capped above a temperature inversion. Lesser gusts are expected elsewhere. Temperatures are expected to average a few degrees below seasonal levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Rain should taper off from S-N this eve as the best moisture and lift shift N of the area. The TN/OH Valley low is expected to open and become phased with a trough/upper low crossing the lower Great Lakes and OH Valley region Wed. Shower chances should continue until the passage of the trough axis in the afternoon. Another quick moving shortwave rotating around the low should continue low chances for showers Wed night. Building high pressure should return dry weather to the area Thursday and Thursday night. Below seasonal average temperatures are expected to continue. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Model ensembles and WPC progs indicate shower chances should return late Friday and part of Saturday with a trough crossing the Eastern CONUS. Dry weather and gradually warming temperatures are then expected for the rest of the forecast period under a building Eastern CONUS ridge. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Conditions will likely start VFR, but light rain overspreading the area this morning will moisten the lower levels and allow clouds to slowly lower. MVFR conditions will develop from south to north this morning at most terminals as steadier rain arrives, and continue through the rest of the day. Some IFR ceilings will begin to appear late tonight, even as showers become spottier. Winds will once again gust to between 15 and 25 knots from late morning through the afternoon, mainly out of the east and southeast, before diminishing after sunset. OUTLOOK... MVFR/IFR conditions are likely through Wednesday for all sites with slow moving low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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