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249 FXUS61 KPBZ 250823 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 423 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry weather and warm temperatures today. The threat for showers and storms returns this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Dry weather continues today, although the increasing moisture will bring humidity levels back up. With the ridge axis nearly overhead this afternoon, it will be hard to generate much convection. Did include a low chance area of PoPs over the south late in the day in the vicinity of a moisture plume driving northward as a weak shortwave trough approaches from the west. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... This shortwave will work to erode the ridge this evening. Have increased PoPs just a bit overnight with the passage of this upper level wave. Would expect any activity to dissipate during the overnight hours, as the main moisture plume drifts eastward and the atmosphere stabilizes. By Saturday, the ridge is sufficiently broken down by a shortwave trough exiting the Midwest. The result will be scattered showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage during peak heating in the afternoon/evening. Temperatures will continue to be well above average. Very little change in the overall pattern or forecast for Sunday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Model consensus is of persistent weak troughing over the Ern CONUS early next week, with a cutoff southern stream low over the Sern states. A forecast of warm and humid conditions with diurnally supported convection was thus maintained. The best chance of organized precipitation comes with a slightly more organized system late in the period. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pres wl maintain VFR today with the only caveat being that some isolated convection is possible late this aftn and eve with a crossing disturbance, late day warmth, and increased humidity. This potential is expected mainly from PIT swd. OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with a weekend low pressure trough. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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