Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 170329 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1129 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain and snow showers will linger tonight into Tuesday. Cool air and unsettled weather will remain over the region until seasonable warmth returns during the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A late eve update was issued to adjust POPs for an area of light snow which is traversing the area in association with a shortwave moving through the base of entrenched upper low pressure. Snow totals are not expected to problematic given rapid progression, lingering boundary layer warmth, and a initially warm surface. Increasing northwest flow in the wake of this disturbance will support additional snow shower enhancement on Tuesday, especially as temperature warm toward convective thresholds as another shortwave slides off the Lakes Region. Warm ground and mid April sun angle will preclude problems. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... A generally high-confidence forecast is indicated through late this week given uncharacteristic consistency among model ensembles. Shortwave ridging in advance of Plains low pressure briefly will modify temperature back toward seasonal averages for Wed. The aforementioned Plains low is progged to cross the Midwest and generate precipitation late Wed and Thu, with its cold surge dropping temperature below seasonal average again for the close of the work-week. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Another digging Plains low is expected to support Upper Ohio ridging with dry weather and seasonable warmth for next weekend. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A mix of low VFR and high MVFR will deteriorate overnight as a crossing disturbance spreads some light snow over the area. MVFR ceilings will linger through most of Tuesday, as will snow showers. Wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots can again be expected as mixing improves on Tuesday afternoon. OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with a Wed night/Thu cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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