Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 130624

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
224 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Snow showers and cold will plague the region through most of the


For the overnight period...adjusted PoPs in line with the latest
radar trends and hires model guidance. Models are focusing on
a broken snow band overnight over portions of my Eastern Ohio
counties, extending southeastward through the WV Panhandle and
over far Southwestern PA. Additionally, cold advection
overnight, combining with a northwest flow, will keep elevation
enhanced snow showers going as well. Latest model soundings do
show inversions lowering overnight, to the point where the
saturated layer is just deep enough to catch the lower portion
of the snow growth zone. This will help to limit snow shower
organization and efficiency.

The Great Lakes upper-level low will slowly mover southeastward
today, reaching North-Central PA by this evening. The pool of
cold air aloft, and continued northwest flow, will encourage
the development of scattered snow showers through the afternoon.
Will increase PoPs this afternoon, as the next trough axis,
swinging around the western flank of the 500 low, will increase
lift and deepen the saturation layer. The favored upslope
regions could see appreciable snow accumulations, but this will
occur over a long period of time with several rounds of snow

Temperatures today will remain well below normal.


Snow showers will continue into Wednesday as the upper low
moves eastward and colder air behind the exiting low spreads
across the area. This again will favor the upslope areas, but
scattered snow showers will be common for most.

There may be a break in widespread snow showers late Wednesday
and Wednesday night as the cold pool aloft drifts toward the
northeast and a drier air mass fills in behind.

Models are now showing another cold front swinging through late
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, which will likely
redevelop snow showers. Another period of cold air advection is
expected behind the boundary on Thursday.

Temperatures will continue to be well below average.


The pattern looks to settle down by the weekend as upper level
ridging develops. There appears to be broad consensus among
operational and ensemble guidance in this. Will keep the
forecast mainly dry for at least the first half of the weekend.
A general warming trend is expected with above average
temperatures by Sunday and Monday.


MVFR, with lcl IFR in scattered snow showers under cold
northwesterly flow will persist through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions are likely through midweek
with persistent upper troughing.


MD...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ001.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ074-
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for


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