Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 192155 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 555 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A series of disturbances will keep periodic showers and storms in the forecast through the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Evening Update: With low level moisture still abundant and winds expected to be light,some patchy fog may form in our early morning hours in our southeastern counties...this will be mostly isolated regions. Otherwise no other changes have been made to this forecast period. Previous Discussion: Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through the evening as a frontal system and associated upper trough impact the region. With dewpoints up into the mid 60s...showers and storms will develop as temperatures increase and convective thresholds are met. There was no change to SPC`s forecast for marginal outlook/isolated severe tstm coverage. This seems reasonable as latest soundings have been consistent in showing marginal speed shear and instability which could result in a few strong storms with damaging wind and large hail. 99th percentile PWATs and relatively deep warm cloud depth will result in heavy downpours with storms, however, storm motion looks to be sufficient to preclude significant flood potential. Temperatures will be relatively warm this evening as the associated cold front is not expected to cross until several hours after midnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Much of Sunday should be dry as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front, but shower chances return during the evening as a shortwave quickly transitions over the region. Low pressure will track slowly across the Midwest Sunday night through Monday night, dragging the sfc front back N as a warm front increasing potential for showers and storms. Temperatures are expected to remain above average. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The aforementioned low and associated cold front will cross the Upper OH Valley region Tue/Tue night and bring another round of showers and storms to the region. We will finally see a break in the weather the remainder of the work week as ridging builds in over the region. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few of which could produce strong wind gusts or hail will be possible this afternoon and evening. VCTS was included in all TAF, as exact timing and location is too uncertain. After sunset, convection will trend downward once again...before a cold front crosses after midnight. Did not mention TSRA with frontal passage but may need to include at a later time if it becomes clear there is enough elevated instability. OUTLOOK... Brief restrictions are expected most of next week as the weather pattern remains active. No long sustained periods of IFR are predicted. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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