Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 161734 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 134 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Rain will taper to showers this morning as a cold front completes passage across the region. Showery and cold weather will persist into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The primary region of rain seemingly associated with focused H8 frontogenesis will continue to weaken this afternoon as it shifts newd from its current location KBVI-KIDI and points northeast. A closed upper-level low will meander ewd across the forecast area this afternoon and evening before wobbling around upstate NY on Tue. Cold advection thru much of the column will promote a thermal profile becoming more favorable for a transition to snow this afternoon mainly in the ridges and this evening in all locations where any precipitation does occur. Lingering stratiform rain will become more convective in nature as the cold pool aloft crosses, with nwly flow supporting lake- enhanced showers tonight and Tue. The warm ground and daytime temperature will preclude significant accumulation save in the ridges (where 1.5-3 inches can be expected tonight through Tue), and perhaps the nrn fringe of the forecast area (where around an inch is forecasted). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Upper troughing with periodic shortwaves within flow will persist through Tuesday supporting cold rain and snow showers. Any snow accumulation should be minor given the mid April sun angle and relatively warm ground. Shortwave ridging in advance of Plains low pressure will briefly modify temperature back toward the averages for Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The aforementioned Plains low is progged to cross the Midwest and generate precipitation late Wednesday and Thursday with its cold surge dropping temperature under the averages again for the close of the work-week. Another digging Plains low is expected to support Upper Ohio ridging with dry weather and seasonable warmth for next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Prevailing conditions should be MVFR through the next 24 hours at all terminals except for FKL/DUJ, which could have some IFR ceilings during the overnight hours. Winds have been gusting at most sites this afternoon, although gusts will diminish overnight. Scattered showers will persist, changing from rain to snow overnight. OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with a Wed ngt/Thu cdfnt.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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