Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 181603 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1203 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Precipitation chances return today and Thursday with crossing low pressure. Dry weather will return this weekend with seasonable warmth next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Ridging/return to southwesterly sfc flow ahead of approaching low pressure and increased insolation will support warmer temperature today. From a climatological stance, we are still 5 to 10 degrees below average for temperatures. Showers will spread across the Upper Ohio Region this evening as the aforementioned low approaches. Cold advection will ensue as the system passes with rain showers changing to snow overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Precipitation will continue Thursday and may mix with/change to rain over areas south of Pittsburgh as the boundary layer warms through the day. Otherwise, the cold thermal trough with a deep trailing shortwave should maintain showers of snow despite surface temperatures above freezing. Confidence is sufficient in this scenario to go above most guidance and project categorical POPs. No significant accumulation is expected given relative boundary layer warmth and sun angle. Friday and Saturday will be cool days of improvement as surface high pressure builds under cold northwest flow. Expect highs for those days 10 to 15 degrees under the averages respectively.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Split flow is projected over the CONUS next week with nrn stream ridging, and a srn stream low forecast to support dry conditions with a warming trend for the Upper Ohio. The next chance for precipitation looks to be with the advance of a mid week nrn stream trough, which model-world may be phasing too quickly with the exiting srn low. Shortwave ridging between srn stream lows would retard a moisture tap off the Gulf, so only a slight rain chance was included for the immediate area. The bottom line is that indications of a dry period with seasonable warmth are good, and may be interrupted only late in the period. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Ceilings will continue to lift as day time mixing takes over. VFR conditions for the majority of the sites are expected until this evening...with the exception of DUJ/FKL. Low level moisture still lingers for these northern sites and ceilings will max out near 3,000ft. Winds will be fairly light, and at times variable, for ZZV/HLG/MGW as high pressure is centered over eastern Ohio. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected to return to all sites near 03Z as quick short wave brings rain and then snow showers to the region. OUTLOOK... Expect a stretch of VFR conditions after Friday morning and into the weekend. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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