


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --412 FXUS61 KPBZ 081144 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 744 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Flash flood potential lingers along and south of the I-70 corridor today and Wednesday. The late-week and weekend outlook favors warm and wet conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --KEY MESSAGES: - Lower heat indices today with valley and urban areas topping out around 90F. - Flash flood risk continues along and south of I-70. --------------------------------------------------------------- A weak mid-level wave riding atop a slowly southeastward sagging boundary has supported showers with a few rumbles of thunder this morning moving from eastern Ohio into southwestern Pennsylvania. With fumes of MUCAPE ~500 J/kg and 20 knots or so of effective shear, the environment should support maintenance of this cluster as it continues to push east. Not expecting any severe weather or flooding concerns with this batch. Otherwise, areas of fog will gradually improve after sunrise, though with the cloud cover in place, mixing might take a bit longer to erode the decreased visibility. Surface analysis shows the boundary draped roughly from DUJ->PIT->ZZV this morning. New Martinsville to Seven Springs and south should see the brunt of additional rainfall today along and south of this front, and latest hi-res model consensus echoes this based off of looking at at forecast precipitation totals. WPC has maintained a marginal risk for this area along and south of the boundary where PWATS remain >=1.75" in general, which is 90th percentile + for this time of year. With weak westerly flow along this boundary, efficient rain rates of up to 2" will be possible with training potential.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - A stalled frontal boundary will continue to allow for more flooding chances south of the PA/WV border. ---------------------------------------------------------------- The front will meander around and south of the I-70 corridor into Wednesday, maintaining chances of rain and flooding. Temperatures may climb a degree or two higher Wednesday with a return to some weak southwesterly flow. While not outlooked for severe at this time, CSU MLP and CIPS show low probability damaging wind potential for northern West Virginia. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Stalled boundary plagues the area with daily precip chances through the end of the week. - Another system favored to move in over the weekend. ------------------------------------------------------------------- The boundary really struggles to move much headed into the middle of the week as mid-level flow parallels it. Latest ensemble clusters keep it wiggling across southwestern Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. This is going to provide us with daily, diurnally driven rain chances within the proximity of the boundary as daytime heating fires showers and storms off of it. A relief from the higher PWAT air seems unlikely, so any of these showers and storms will be capable of locally heavy rainfall. The highest precip probabilities will remain mainly along and south of the Mason Dixon line though lower end probabilities will exist as far north as Pittsburgh. Developing low pressure will lift the boundary back up north as a warm front Thursday and Friday. This will overspread higher precip chances to the area both days as additional waves of low pressure ride along the front. We should finally rid our area of that disturbance just in time for another one to develop out of the Northern Plains and keep the unsettled pattern through next weekend. Still some ensemble disagreement on how that evolves, but not seeing too much confidence in a dry weekend. Temperatures are favored to hold just above normal through next weekend, though with cloud cover and rain around, they may prove to be slightly cooler than currently forecast in spots. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --Restrictions are present across the board this morning varying from LIFR to MVFR. Those socked in with fog have seen visibility dip to 1/2 mile or less with low ceilings, though some improvement is coming with showers and a few embedded rumbles of thunder along a slowly moving surface cold front. This is most likely to impact HLG, BVI, PIT, and AGC through 14z or so, and the rain should bring visibility up some as it turns over the low levels. Other sites that don`t see rain will see visibility gradually improve after sunrise with a return to VFR likely after 14z (perhaps an hour or two later for FKL/DUJ), and ceilings will lift to MVFR and eventually VFR as they scatter from northwest to southeast behind the southeastward sagging surface boundary. Additional restrictions are possible as daytime heating invigorates development of showers and storms along the front early this afternoon. FKL/DUJ/ZZV should avoid any of this additional development, but brief periods of MVFR to IFR in heavy rain are possible elsewhere most likely after 15z for PIT and surrounding terminals, LBE and MGW after 18z. Thunder is possible with any showers, but was not confident in the exact timing of TSRA to any given terminal, and reduction to visibility with heavy rain is more likely to be the greater impact, so will further amend if the thunder threat is more apparent. Wind will be light from the west-southwest the duration of the forecast outside of any showers/thunderstorms. Outlook... An unsettled pattern will continue for much of the rest of the week as Monday`s cold front slows and stalls. Diurnally driven storm chances will govern conditions the rest of the week with periodic afternoon and evening impacts possible each day.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...88 NEAR TERM...MLB/88 SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM...MLB AVIATION...MLB/Lupo