Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 241137 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 737 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry weather and warming temperature through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Dry and warm again today. Upper level heights will slowly rise, as ridge axis drifts eastward. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Dry and warmer conditions with gradually increasing humidity can be expected through Friday as a ridge of high pressure settles in over the region. Short term high temperatures were projected 10 to 15 degrees above the averages under the amplified ridging, while morning lows in the initially dry airmass should remain near, to about 5 degrees above the averages. Models are trying to show a weak shortwave trough riding over top of the ridge late Friday, but the ascent is weak and the ridge shows no signs of weakening. Additionally, the deeper atmospheric moisture will be bottled to the south of the area. Put in a slight chance for a shower or storm across the far south. An approaching shortwave trough is projected to erode the ridge by Saturday and tap Gulf moisture funneled over the SE U.S. Best lift appears to be timed for the afternoon and evening hours.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Warm and humid conditions will thus be accompanied by diurnally supported shower and thunderstorm chances into Sunday. Model consensus is of persistent weak troughing over the Ern CONUS early next week, with a cutoff southern stream low over the Sern states. A forecast of warm and humid conditions with diurnally supported convection was thus maintained. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Building high pressure will maintain general VFR into Friday, aside from patchy and shallow pre-dawn fog at terminals nearest the rivers. OUTLOOK... Restriction potential returns with a weekend low pressure trough. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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