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374
FXUS61 KPBZ 080927
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
527 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight
into Thursday morning. The threat of severe storms will be
marginal with winds being the main threat.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- After the showers exit this morning.
- Brief ridging will allow for dry weather with sunshine today.
- Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible late
 tonight.

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The lingering swath of rain will begin to dissipate this
morning as it slowly tracks east out of the area and dries up.
Expect this to occur by 8am.

Weak ridging brings quiet weather today into Wednesday night.
However another trough with 50 to 70 meter height falls pushes a
low pressure area up Ohio Valley with a surge of warm advection
showers and thunderstorms. While these could be severe, odds
favor the strong instability to be well south of forecast area.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Additional storms are possible late Wednesday night into early
  Thursday morning, but highest severe probabilities are well
  south of the forecast area.

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By Thursday, a boundary begins to lay out across the region as
additional showers and any convection from the event overnight
continues to track across the area. Another Marginal risk for
flooding seems to be the case. This will depend on where the
main axis of moisture sets up. Hi res models suggest this may be
a bit further south than the Tuesday night activity and may be
less impactful. NBM probs in DESI do surpass 40% for 1 inch for
the area south of the Mason Dixon. Thus, any flooding issues
will be dependent on training in WV or any heavier rainfall
over the OH and PA areas that received heavy rainfall already.
Strong height falls on Friday usher in a cooler pattern with a
long wave trough position in the east.
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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KEY MESSAGES:

- Ensembles suggest a wet pattern into the weekend.
- Cooler temperatures arrive by late week with highs in the 60s
  this weekend.
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By Friday night into Saturday, another fast moving shortwave
dives southeast in northwest flow bringing another round of
showers to the area. Overall, a rather damp weekend is on tap.
The slow moving trough will keep rain chances through Sunday as
well.

Temperatures through Sunday will be 5-10 degrees below
the seasonal normal of about 70 this time of year.

Some moderation of temperatures is likely Monday and Tuesday as
heights rise and flow turns from northwest to more westerly,
though there is a possibility of another trough dropping over
the northeast on Tuesday keeping things a bit cooler than
currently forecast.
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.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Expect some lingering MVFR and IFR below conditions through
dawn. Main Weak ridging building into the region will bring VFR
countdowns back to the region by late morning on Wednesday.
There does stand the chance for some restrictions late tonight
with the redevelopment of storms.

Winds will mainly be out of the west through the day with some
gusts up to 20 knots at times.

.Outlook...
Restrictions with showers and storms are likely early Thursday
through Friday with crossing low pressure.
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.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...Shallenberger